On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest economic “report card”: From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year; the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 0.6% year-on-year; An increase of 5.8%. As various regions and departments efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and step up efforts to implement various measures to stabilize the economy, the economy as a whole continues to recover, the accumulation of new kinetic energy has increased, and the resilience of development has continued to be demonstrated.
Looking forward to the next stage, my country will focus on expanding effective demand, deepen supply-side structural reforms, continue to stabilize employment, stabilize prices and stabilize expectations, further stimulate market vitality, consolidate the foundation for economic recovery, and strive to achieve better development results.
The economy as a whole continues to recover
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national economy withstood the impact of multiple unexpected factors at home and abroad in October and continued to recover.
From the perspective of production – from January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points faster than that from January to September. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.0% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the third quarter, and increased by 0.33% month-on-month.
From the perspective of demand–in terms of investment, from January to October, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.8% year-on-year. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment increased by 9.7%. In terms of consumption, from January to October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than that from January to September.
“Affected by factors such as the complex and severe international environment and the impact of the domestic epidemic in October, the year-on-year growth rate of some indicators has dropped. However, from a cumulative perspective, it has remained generally stable.” Spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Fu Linghui, director of the department, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that day.
Behind this is the efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development by various regions and departments, and efforts to implement various measures to stabilize the economy and actively release policy effectiveness.
Since the beginning of this year, with the implementation of various policies to stabilize the industrial economy, the production of key industries such as automobiles and electronics has recovered, which has a significant supporting effect on the industry. All parties actively promoted the implementation of stable investment policies, and the special bonds and policy-based development financial instruments were strongly supported. The construction of investment projects was steadily promoted, and the overall investment maintained a steady growth. Although the consumer market has suffered short-term shocks, the basic living consumption of residents has been guaranteed. The driving effect of online retail on market sales continues to appear, supporting consumption to a certain extent.
Increased accumulation of new kinetic energy
While the economy continues to recover, new kinetic energy is also accumulating and strengthening.
The development trend of industrial upgrading continues – in the first 10 months, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points faster than that from January to September. Investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 23.6% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that from January to September. In October, the added value of the electronics and communication equipment manufacturing industry increased by 16.6% year-on-year, and the output of mobile communication base station equipment and 5G smartphones increased by 39.1% and 18.4% year-on-year respectively.
The modern service industry has a good growth momentum – with the acceleration of economic digital transformation, related service industries have maintained rapid growth. From January to October, the production index of information transmission, software and information technology service industry increased by 11.1%, significantly faster than the growth of all service industries.
Green and low-carbon transformation is accelerating, and product production is increasing rapidly. From January to October, the production of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 108.4% and 35.6% year-on-year respectively. In October, the output of new energy vehicles, charging piles, and photovoltaic battery products increased by 84.8%, 81.4%, and 69.9% year-on-year, respectively.
Information technology is widely used, and new business formats maintain rapid growth. In the first 10 months, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points faster than that from January to September, and their contribution to market sales has steadily increased.
“The leading role of innovation continues to emerge.” Fu Linghui pointed out that the pace of my country’s industrial upgrading has accelerated, and the industry has accelerated its transformation to digital, networked, and intelligent, which has strengthened the drive for the economy. The new kinetic energy continues to grow, which is conducive to economic recovery.
The trend of sustainable economic development remains unchanged
It is worth noting that there are still many external unstable and uncertain factors, the recovery of domestic demand is still insufficient, business operations still face certain challenges, and the promotion of sustained economic recovery and development still faces uncertainties.
Looking forward to the economic trend in the next stage, Fu Linghui believes that the fundamentals of my country’s long-term economic growth have not changed, and the basic characteristics of solid material foundation, broad market space, abundant human resources, and huge development potential have not changed. With the effectiveness of various economic stabilization policies, the economic operation is expected to gradually recover.
Among them, domestic demand is expected to increase. From the investment point of view, the policy of stabilizing investment continues to strengthen, and major projects are accelerated, which is conducive to the stable growth of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment, and is also conducive to the effective play of the key role of investment. “From the perspective of leading indicators, in the first 10 months, the total planned investment in newly started projects increased by 23.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate has accelerated for two consecutive months.” Fu Linghui said that investment growth has remained stable, and the key role in stabilizing the economy will be If it is effectively utilized, the effect of promoting the optimization of the supply structure will gradually appear.
Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that, including the central bank’s establishment of a special re-lending tool for equipment renewal and transformation, the policy’s support for manufacturing investment is further increasing. Manufacturing investment is expected to remain relatively resilient in the short term. It is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate of 8% to 9% throughout the year, and continue to play an important supporting role in promoting investment.
From the perspective of consumption, Fu Linghui believes that the impact of the epidemic on market sales will still exist, but in general it is short-term and external, and there are still many favorable conditions for the recovery of my country’s consumption. First, from a mid- to long-term perspective, the trend of expanding consumption and upgrading the consumption structure in my country will not change. Second, with the gradual recovery of the economy, it will gradually lead to the expansion of employment and the increase of residents’ income, which will help enhance residents’ consumption ability and willingness to consume. Third, the policy of promoting consumption continues to be effective, which is conducive to the expansion of consumption. Fourth, innovation in consumption patterns will expand new growth points.
“Overall, external shocks are staged and will not change the general trend of my country’s sustained economic development. Under the influence of various policies and measures, the national economy will continue to maintain a stable recovery trend.” Fu Linghui said.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, also said that since November, both internal and external situations have shown signs of improvement, including the further optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, the increase in real estate support policies, and the cooling down of the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations. The effect of economic policies has been further exerted, and the economy is still expected to maintain a stable and upward momentum in the fourth quarter. (Reporter Ban Juanjuan)