Original title: The balance of the two financings has reached a new high in the past 6 years, can the upward trend of A-share volatility continue?
After many days of continuous sunshine, the A-share market entered a weak consolidation in the afternoon on June 2. As of the close,The Shanghai Composite IndexFell 0.76% to 3,597.14 points,Shenzhen Component IndexFell 1.18% to 14857.91 points,CSI 300Fell 0.97% to 5,285.97 points,Growth Enterprise Market IndexIt fell 1.73% to 3243.02 points.
However, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets that day exceeded one trillion for the fourth consecutive day, and the market sentiment was active. As the market stabilized, the balance of the two financings, known as the barometer of the stock market, has also repeatedly hit new highs. On June 1, the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s financing balance was reported at 832.47 billion yuan, an increase of 4.516 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s financing balance was reported at 745.065 billion yuan, an increase of 3.431 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the two cities totaled 1,577.535 billion yuan, a breakthrough. New high since July 2015.
In fact, after experiencing a sharp drop after the Spring Festival, since late May, the A-share market has gradually improved, the index has fluctuated higher, and the growth style has been relatively dominant.
According to industry insiders, this market is mainly driven by various reasons such as the expectation of RMB appreciation, the ample short-term liquidity in the market, and the continuation of China’s economic recovery. However, some institutional sources pointed out that there is not much trend support for the entire upward process at present, and it is necessary to be alert to overseas market risks.
The balance of the two financings hit a new high in nearly six years
In the past few days, as market sentiment has rebounded, a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald noticed that as of June 1, the balance of the two financings has increased for 8 consecutive trading days (May 21 to June 1), and the total balance of the two financings during the period has been increased. An increase of 40 billion yuan.
As of June 1, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock ExchangesMargin tradingThe balance (hereinafter referred to as “the balance of the two financings”) increased by 8.342 billion yuan from the previous trading day to 1.73 trillion, accounting for 2.51% of the A-share market value, setting a new high since July 6, 2015. The transaction volume of the two financial institutions reached 99.944 billion, accounting for 9.55% of the A-share turnover.
In terms of industries, within 8 trading days, there were 24 industries where the net purchase of financing increased. The financing balance of the pharmaceutical and biological industry increased the most. During the period, the financing balance increased by 4.663 billion yuan. The industry with the top increase in financing balance was non-bank finance. ,food and drink, Electronics and other industries; while the industries with reduced financing balances include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and communications.
In terms of individual stocks, during the period when the balances of the two financial institutions rose, the financing balance of 1174 target stocks of the two financial institutions increased, accounting for 58.97%. Among them, the top ten stocks of the financing net purchases wereChangchun High-tech、Sany Heavy Industry、COSCO SHIPPING、CUHK、Zhifei Bio、Gree Electric、Longi shares、CICC、GoertekwithWatson Bio, The net purchase amount of these companies’ financing is as high as 530 million yuan.
There are as many as 131 companies that account for more than 15% of the company’s total transaction volume.Yonghui SupermarketDuring the period when the balances of the two financial institutions were rising, the turnover of the two financial institutions accounted for 33.76% of the total turnover. The net purchase of 413 million funds was financed, and the financing purchase accounted for 33.56% of the total turnover.
With the continuous increase in the scale of the two financial institutions, the proportion of financing balances of some individual stocks has also increased rapidly. According to trading rules, when the financing monitoring index of a single stock reaches 25%, the exchange can suspend its financing purchases on the next trading day. And announced to the market.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noticed that most companies’ financing balances are in a relatively safe state. As of June 1, among the two financial target stocks, only 67 had financing balances that accounted for more than 10% of the market capitalization, and financing balances accounted for When the ratio is between 5% and 10%, there are 668, and the ratio is between 1% and 5% is 1083, and the ratio is less than 1%, there are 169.Rendong HoldingsA financing balance accounted for more than 20% of the circulating market value, reaching 21.34%.
Can the rebound last?
It is worth mentioning that, as a safer leveraged fund on the market, it can help the A-share market to fall, and the fluctuation of the balance of the two financial institutions also shows a more obvious positive correlation with the A-share market.
In fact, during the rapid rise of the two financial institutions, the A-share market also fluctuated upward. Since May, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have risen by 4.38%, 3.50% and 6.00% respectively. Among them, the trend has been the strongest since late May. The Shanghai Composite Index once soared to 3,600 points, and the ChiNext Index also rose for a while. Stand at 3300 points.
Tan Changgui, founder and investment director of Shenzhen Longhong Investment, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald that the rebound since late May was mainly due to the time and magnitude of the previous market adjustments, market sentiment, and growth.ChangheThe market has gradually got rid of the shadow of “mid-term adjustment” due to policy expectations and many other influences, and the style has gradually returned to value growth stocks and may continue to develop in depth.
“First, May economic data show that China’s growth may not be strong, and the recent sharp decline in the prices of some commodities and the significant decline in the yields of treasury bonds, local epidemics have also repeated, there is limited room for tightening policies, and the appreciation of the renminbi is good for foreign capital inflows. The liquidity of the market is sufficient in the short term; second, as China’s recovery has continued for a long time, the market’s attention has gradually shifted from post-epidemic recovery to economic growth under normal economic conditions. The fundamentals are supported and there is ample room for follow-up growth in the value growth sector. Return to the eyes of investors; third, although the prices of raw materials and bulk commodities are difficult to decline in an overall trend, the cyclical market may have come to an end under the influence of multiple factors.” Tan Changgui said.
Xuanyuan Investment Director Yang Xia also pointed out to reporters that the increase was caused by multiple factors. One isNorthward capitalIt is found that the performance of Chinese asset prices is far worse than that of the United States in terms of strong macro-cyclical products. The superposition of the central bank’s previous statement has triggered everyone’s expectations of continued exchange rate appreciation, and there has been a wave of obviousCash flowThe second is that domestic mainstream funds are taking advantage of the domestic bond market to gain momentum and the actual situation in the United States.interest rateIn this time window that continues to fall, the core assets of long-term duration have been removed from the weak and strong based on the industry’s prosperity and stability, and continued to increase in the sub-high-end liquor and new energy vehicles.
Looking ahead, whether the A-share rebound will continue will be affected by many factors, and we need to be alert to the impact of relevant overseas policies.
Yang Xia believes: “From the current point of view, the marginal variable factors that determine the future trend of A-shares for a period of time are not in China, but in overseas, it lies inMidlandReserve’s policy choices. “
In Yang Xia’s view, the domestic economy recovered well in the first half of the year driven by exports. In the second half of the year, there will be a large number of special fiscal bonds to be issued that can be used as a hedge. The overall economy will continue to stabilize and improve this year.And the market expectsMidlandIn the second half of the year, the Reserve Department began to discuss shrinking the balance sheet. As the US epidemic is gradually under control due to vaccination and the non-agricultural employment data in April is significantly lower than market expectations, the market is very concerned about the May data that will be released on Friday. Is it possible? The appearance of “reducing the balance sheet” in advance, whether the dollar index and short-end U.S. bond yields will experience unexpected upward fluctuations will have an adverse impact on the A-share market.
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
(Editor in charge: DF537)
Solemnly declare: The purpose of this information is to spread more information, and it has nothing to do with this stand.
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