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◎Reporter Sun Yue
On Tuesday, the Shanghai stock index fluctuated around 3200 points throughout the day, closing at 3212.53 points, a slight increase of 0.02%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index closed up 0.67% and 0.68% respectively. The net purchase of northbound funds was 541 million yuan throughout the day. On the disk, the characteristics of plate rotation are still obvious. The liquor sector leads the recovery of large consumer stocks, and the semiconductor and lithium battery industry chains pick up. However, the new crown drugs and new crown testing sectors, which led the rise in the early stage, suffered a collective setback.
Liquor stocks lead big consumption to strengthen
Yesterday, the big consumer sector was among the biggest gainers. In the liquor section,Alcoholrose more than 7%,Jinhui wine、Gujing tribute wine、WuliangyeWait for an increase of more than 4%. In the retail sector,Yonghui Supermarket、Dongbai Group、Sanjiang ShoppingWait for the daily limit.
Looking forward to next year, institutions are generally optimistic about the market of consumer stocks, and believe that the market of the sector is expected to continue.
Western SecuritiesIt is believed that, from a horizontal comparison, after more than two years of valuation and performance “double killing”, the valuation of the food and beverage sector is still at the bottom of the historical range. According to market history verification, the worst time for external demand environment is generally the lowest point of the stock price of the food and beverage sector.
Wu Yue, director of consumer research at Harvest Fund, said that the current valuation of the consumer sector has reached a low level, with high cost performance, and he is optimistic about the consumer sector represented by the real estate chain, liquor, and travel chain in the long run.
Track stocks such as semiconductors and lithium batteries are picking up
Track stocks also picked up yesterday, among which semiconductor, lithium battery and other sectors were active. In the semiconductor sector,Broadcom integration、Dagang sharesdaily limit,Chuangyao Technology、GuokeweiThey all followed suit. In the lithium battery sector,Jingshan light machine、XiangfenghuaTop gainers.
On the news, on December 6, the latest report of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) showed that in October this year, the sales of the global semiconductor industry fell to US$46.9 billion, which was lower than the US$49.1 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; September’s $47 billion, down 0.3%. SIA President and CEO John Neufair said that global semiconductor sales fell again in October this year, with the year-on-year decline the largest since December 2019.
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the weak downstream consumption situation, the overall prosperity of the semiconductor industry has been poor, and the semiconductor sector has continued to fall into adjustment. However, institutions generally expect that the semiconductor market is more likely to recover in 2023.CITIC SecuritiesSaid that the semiconductor industry cycle is in the bottom stage, and design companies and downstream customers are actively promoting destocking. Looking forward to 2023, with the gradual recovery of downstream demand, it is optimistic that the industry cycle will bottom out around the second quarter of 2023 and return to the upward stage.
Guosen SecuritiesIt is also said that the current round of the semiconductor cycle is expected to bottom out in the second quarter to the third quarter of 2023, and design companies are expected to be the first to recover.
The market is expected to heat up further
Entering December, the expectations of institutions for the “New Year’s Eve market” and “spring restless market” are gradually heating up.
Essence Securities said that the current confidence in the A-share market has improved significantly, and positive policy expectations have the upper hand. It maintains the judgment that “face the tactical rebound with a more optimistic attitude, and the ‘Xiaoyangchun in winter’ is worth looking forward to”.
CICCSaid that although the transmission of policies to growth and the effectiveness of economic improvement still need further observation, considering that the support policies in the real estate and other fields continue to increase, the expectation of steady growth from policies at the end of the year is also continuously strengthened, and the superimposed market already has more in the early stage. The characteristics of the bottom, the A-share market is neutral to positive in the next 12 months, and the index may usher in a phased opportunity from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year.
Industrial SecuritiesThe strategy team believes that against the background of easing internal and external risks, the market is expected to recover further. In the short term, investors are advised to continue to focus on the recovery opportunities of the large consumption sector: on the one hand, the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies is expected to boost the performance recovery expectations of large consumption; on the other hand, the outflow of foreign capital from mid-October to early November once impacted foreign capital The consumption sector is a heavy warehouse, and foreign capital has been returning rapidly recently, and consumption is still the direction of its key allocation.
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