Original title: The central bank announced a comprehensive RRR cut of 25BP, the bond market is still cautious about long-term interest rates
Last week, the central bank issued another RRR cut regulation on November 25, and decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on December 5. This RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut. Except for some corporate financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio, other financial institutions generally lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points.
After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is about 7.8%. According to estimates, the RRR cut will release a total of about 500 billion yuan of long-term funds. The implementation of the RRR cut was in line with market expectations.
However, the current interest rate increase of long-term funds is obvious, which is one of the main reasons for the adjustment of the bond market.Soochow SecuritiesAccording to the analysis, the central bank cut the RRR again, which made the market liquidity expectations better, indicating that the monetary policy is still in a loose cycle. However, under the pull of strong expectations and weak reality, the bond market will remain volatile and the volatility has increased. If the fundamental good expectations are not realized, the bond market will usher in another opportunity, and it is recommended to remain cautious in the short term.
The bond decline is expected to gradually stop
In terms of the primary market, a total of 7 local bonds were issued in the primary market last week, with an issuance amount of 18.538 billion yuan, of which there were no new general bonds, 2.003 billion new special bonds, and 16.535 billion yuan of refinancing bonds; , medium-term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds and PPN) issued a total of 214, with a total issuance of 215.558 billion yuan, a total repayment of 289.245 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of -73.687 billion yuan, an increase of 26.604 billion yuan from last week.
In the secondary market, the stock of local bonds was 34.86 trillion yuan, the transaction volume was 187.835 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.54%. In terms of credit bond transactions, the total turnover of short-term financing bonds was 305.126 billion yuan, medium-term notes were 409.260 billion yuan, corporate bonds and corporate bonds The debts are 52.866 billion yuan and 41.705 billion yuan respectively.
Lion Fund publicly stated that the obvious adjustment in the bond market is mainly due to the tightening of funds, epidemic prevention, and real estate policies. At the same time, bank wealth management and bond redemption may play a role in fueling the flames. In the short term, with the central bank increasing the investment in the open market, if the funding level is significantly eased, the bond decline is expected to gradually stop.
Last week, bond fund yields increased compared with the previous week. Wind statistics show that the medium and long-term pure bond fund index rose 0.19% last week. In addition, the short-term pure bond fund index rose 0.13% during the week, and the mixed bond secondary fund index rose 0.03% during the week.
Since last week, some fund companies have successively announced that some of their debt bases will suspend large-amount purchases in order to stabilize the fund scale, maintain smooth operation, and protect the interests of existing fund share holders.
Wind statistics show that since November 21, more than 152 public offering funds have announced the suspension of subscription, of which 36 are pure debt products. If secondary debt bases and debt bases with rights are added, the number is close to half. It can be said that the debt base has become the main product of the recent “purchase restriction” of public offerings.
It is worth noting that among all the purchase restriction requirements, some announcements specify that institutional investors should impose large purchase restrictions, including ICBC Credit Suisse China Bond 1-3 Year Agricultural Development Bond, E Fund, etc.
Some analysts say that due to interest rate fluctuations and selling pressure in the secondary market, institutions may be less tolerant than individual investors. Some of them are risk-averse bank wealth management and insurance capital allocation, etc. People bring more management pressure.
Short-term interest rate adjustments are already in place
At the same time, as fixed-income securities, the fluctuation of bonds reflects the market trend. On the one hand, the large amount of liquidity released has investment return requirements, and on the other hand, suitable underlying assets are in a state of scarcity. .
The China-Europe Fund stated that from now until the Central Economic Work Conference in December, the policy is expected to continue to ferment, and the short-term is mainly on the sidelines. Considering that it will take a long time for the improvement of economic fundamentals, the stage of policy speculation is not enough to finish the entire upward cycle of interest rates. The range of 2.85~2.9 for 10-year treasury bonds is difficult to fall in the short term. After the policy is expected to be hyped, it still needs to return to the basics Face and the results of epidemic prevention and control come up, and it is expected that there will be opportunities in the band at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
In fact, due to the recent fluctuations in the bond market, whether it is investing in bonds or bond funds, the fluctuations in the past month have continued to disturb the hearts of investors. Many institutions have also given analysis on the next allocation suggestions and strategic analysis.
Lion Fund stated that the bond market has undergone drastic adjustments since November, and has been digesting new policy expectations. The market has high expectations for the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the correction of real estate policies. In view of the important role of the gradual recovery of the entire real estate industry chain in driving economic growth , the market tends to be cautious about long-term interest rates. After the State Council executive meeting announced the RRR cut arrangement on November 23, the 10-year treasury bond yield dropped rapidly, but lost all the gains in one trading day, showing that the long-term yield has relatively optimistic expectations for the future economy. Driven by the policy interest rate and the positive effects of short-term RRR cuts, the current short-term fund interest rate has limited upward space. At present, short-term varieties are still a more deterministic choice.
Bosera Fund said that in terms of market strategy, the recent changes in real estate policies have directional significance, and the main follow-up observation points are still sales and construction activities, and the current signs of improvement are not clear; the fight against the epidemic will not lie flat, and restrictions on economic activities Expect to ease in at a slower pace. The pressure on short-term interest rates from the exchange rate is expected to decrease slightly in the near future. The recent drastic adjustments in the bond market are not the norm in the future. The bond market is expected to remain volatile for a period of one to two quarters. Short-term interest rate adjustments are in place, and long-term follow-up increases will also be relatively limited. The internal view of credit remains unchanged, focusing on the differentiation of urban investment, and the cost performance of industrial bonds is already low, avoiding real estate.
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Responsible editor: Zhang Wen