On March 21, the People’s Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the “PBOC”) carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 182 billion yuan by means of interest rate bidding to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, and the operating rate remained unchanged at 2%. In view of the fact that 29 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired on that day, the central bank’s open market realized a net investment of 153 billion yuan.
Judging from the recent open market operations, the central bank launched 481 billion yuan of MLF (medium-term lending facility) on March 15 and also carried out 104 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. The scale is also maintained at the level of 100 billion yuan, 109 billion yuan and 180 billion yuan respectively, and the net investment is 106 billion yuan and 165 billion yuan. On March 20, the reverse repurchase operation was converted to net withdrawal, with a net withdrawal amount of 11 billion yuan.
Regarding the central bank’s net release of reverse repurchase operations on March 21, Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believed in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that since mid-March, the key money market interest rate DR007 has been maintained at the 7-day reverse Above the repurchase rate, it shows that there is a certain pressure on market liquidity. On March 20, DR007 rose to the second highest level in the month, so it is necessary to moderately increase liquidity placement operations to meet market liquidity needs.
In fact, since February, the market interest rate has gradually returned to the policy interest rate. Wind data shows that the average value of DR007 in February was 2.11%. Since March, the weighted average interest rate of DR007 has been below 2% for 7 days, but all of them are concentrated in the first half of the month. Since March 15, the weighted average interest rate of DR007 has been above 2.1%.
In this regard, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that the recent trend of market interest rates shows that short-term funds continue to be slightly tight. The main reason behind this is that the financing demand of the real economy has picked up. to the interbank market. At the same time, the pre-issuance of special bonds will squeeze liquidity. In addition, as the end of the month and the end of the quarter are approaching, it is also a normal seasonal phenomenon for market interest rates to rise.
“However, judging from the level and volatility of market interest rates, as well as the central bank’s successive increase in medium and long-term liquidity support, the overall market sentiment remains stable.” Zhou Maohua said.
Looking ahead, Liang Si believes that liquidity will remain reasonably sufficient in late March. On the one hand, it is expected that the central bank will adjust the amount of liquidity supply based on market liquidity supply and demand, especially changes in key interest rate varieties such as DR007, to stabilize interest rate fluctuations; The appropriation will supplement the funds.
Zhou Maohua predicted that the follow-up central bank will pay attention to short-term disturbance factors and market interest rates, and use a variety of tools to flexibly adjust to meet the funding needs of financial institutions and stabilize short-term funding fluctuations. At the same time, superimposed on the RRR cut implemented on March 27, the capital is expected to be stable across the season.
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