Original title: The central bank slightly increments the parity sequel to MLF 300 billion yuan, experts predict that the deposit rate and interest rate cut may be cut in the first half of the year
Our reporter Liu Qi
On February 15, the People’s Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the “Central Bank”) issued an announcement that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it will carry out 300 billion yuan of medium-term loan sequel) and a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan.
On February 18, the amount of MLF due funds was 200 billion yuan, and this sequel increased slightly by 100 billion yuan on the basis of the amount of funds due. In terms of interest rates, MLF and 7-day reverse repurchase operations remained unchanged at 2.85% and 2.1%, respectively.
Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Suning Financial Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the MLF interest rate remained unchanged, in line with expectations. After the previous interest rate cut, the effect is more obvious, and the short-term capital interest rate and long-term loan cost have both decreased. In the current situation of other policies to stabilize growth, especially the fiscal policy, the pace and extent of subsequent interest rate cuts need to be determined based on the effect of stable growth in the future. .
Soochow Securities Research Report believes that the incremental sequel MLF reflects the central bank’s policy deployment in coordination with fiscal coordination. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the requirement that “fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked”. At the same time, the central bank also mentioned in the “China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2021” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”), “strengthening the adjustment of fiscal revenue and expenditure, government bond issuance, cash withdrawal and monetary policy adjustments in major economies. Monitor and analyze certain factors, and comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.”
In the context of the advance of fiscal policy, according to the data of Oriental Fortune Choice, as of February 15, the issuance of new special bonds during the year was 541.597 billion yuan, and 37% of the new special debt limit (1.46 trillion yuan) was issued in advance. % higher than the same period last year.
Judging from the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor), on February 15th, except for the 14-day Shibor, all other maturity varieties went down. Among them, the overnight Shibor fell by 5.9 basis points to 1.807%, and the 7-day Shibor fell by 2.3 basis points to 2%. As of 17:00 on February 15, the weighted average interest rate of the 7-day repurchase rate (DR007) of interbank depository financial institutions pledged with interest rate bonds was 1.9721%, and its 5-day average was 1.9897%, both of which were in a 7-day reverse cycle. below the purchase rate (2.1%).
For the loan market quoted rate (LPR) to be released this month, Tao Jin expects that there is a high probability that the MLF interest rate will remain unchanged. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Orient Jincheng, also told the “Securities Daily” reporter that the unchanged MLF interest rate this month means that the pricing basis of the LPR quotation in February will remain unchanged, and the one-year and five-year LPR quotations will also remain unchanged this month. will remain unchanged.
“It is worth noting that, unlike the situation in which overseas inflation has forced the tightening of monetary policy, my country’s current inflation pressure is generally controllable, but due to factors such as the fluctuation of the epidemic and the cooling of the real estate market, the momentum of macroeconomic growth has slowed down in stages. Therefore, my country’s monetary policy will enhance its autonomy and independence, not only will it not follow overseas tightening, but there will be marginal room for easing. Whether there will be further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the first half of the year mainly depends on whether the domestic economic operation has the risk of deviating from a reasonable range and the operation of the real estate market. It depends on the situation.” Wang Qing added.