As soon as the news that “the central bank handed over more than one trillion yuan of profits” was released, it immediately became a hot topic in the market.There are many interpretations of the policy, and many of them equate this move with the RRR cut, arguing that “the annual 1 trillion incremental basiscurrencyThe launch is equivalent to a 50BP RRR cut.” What’s more, he believes that “the effect of this action may be far better than the RRR cut.”
Could it be that the RRR cut expected by market players has really come in another form? The reporter learned from an interview that the central bank’s turning over of profits is not equivalent to reducing the reserve requirement ratio, but it has the effect of a “reserve reserve ratio”-like boosting effect on the economy, the two are expected to “reach the same goal”. The specific liquidity release effect of the turned-in profits still depends on many factors.
This does not mean that the RRR cut window is closed. Industry insiders said that although the necessity of subsequent RRR cuts has been reduced, whether or not the RRR cuts will be implemented still depends on the macroeconomic and financial performance. In addition, taking into account internal and external factors, the probability of interest rate cuts in the near future has increased.
The effect of “quasi RRR reduction” can be achieved but not equivalent to RRR reduction
peopleBankannouncementshow that this year the peopleBankTurn over the balance of profits to the central government, with a total of more than 1 trillion yuan, mainly used for tax refunds and increased transfer payments to local governments.
Since this process involves the introduction of base currency, which is an expansion increment, many industry analysts believe that in terms of effect, it is expected to achieve “the same goal by different paths”.
“After turning in profits and fiscal expenditures, the base currency will increase.”CICCSaid that the scale of the base currency investment brought by the 1 trillion yuan profit (after fiscal expenditure) turned over this time is equivalent to the base currency increase caused by the 50BP reduction in the reserve ratio. From this perspective, the need for a comprehensive RRR cut in the near future has declined.
HuachuangsecuritiesAssistant to the Director of the Institute, Chief MacroanalystZhang Yu believes that the profit turned over has the effect of “similar to lowering the reserve ratio” by 50BP. As long as this part of the money is formed into the government’s fiscal deposit and invested, it will form the expansion of the base currency.
CICCIt is believed that in terms of boosting the economy, the effect of turning over profits and re-investing is much better than an equivalent RRR cut, because it directly improves the balance sheet of the private sector and directly brings broad money injection.The RRR cut is to release part of the locked base currency to businessBanknot necessarily directlycredit。
However, in fact, the mechanism of action of the two is significantly different. “Unlike direct RRR cuts, which are usually implemented once or twice, the easing effect of the central bank’s profits on the capital side is relatively limited in the short term. The RRR cut will directly increase the long-term liquidity of banks and improve their lending capabilities, but the central bank’s profits will not have this effect. , it directly increases the ability of fiscal tax reduction (tax rebate) to reduce fees.” Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said.
The specific liquidity release effect generated by the turned-in profits still depends on many factors. “Because there is still a certain time lag between the turn-in of 1 trillion yuan of profits and the fiscal expenditure, further easing of liquidity conditions needs to wait until the actual release of fiscal deposits.”CICCSay.
Zhang Yu said that this “quasi-RRR cut” is not a one-time release. At the same time, only when the financial funds are used and flowed to the enterprise residents, the real economy can have a “quasi-quasi-RRR cut” feeling. In addition, the profits turned over in this round limit the use of funds, so the liquidity release felt by the real economy may be less than the 50BP reduction.
The need for RRR cuts is reduced but the window is not closed
In March, my country’s monetary policy has entered an important window observation period.
A number of analysts said that the monetary policy of “strengthening ahead” needs to be implemented more vigorously. A timely and appropriate RRR reduction can meet and support the demand for credit expansion, further reduce social financing costs, and effectively help achieve the goal of stable growth.
After “the central bank handed over more than one trillion yuan of profits”, the market believes that the necessity of short-term RRR cuts is reduced. So, is the follow-up RRR cut still possible?
“The profit that the central bank turns over has the effect of reducing the RRR, which may reduce the necessity and frequency of direct RRR cuts in the future to a certain extent, but this does not mean that the second-quarter RRR cut window will be closed.” Wang Qing said, whether to implement direct RRR cuts in the future The RRR cut operation mainly depends on the macroeconomic and financial performance.
Wang Qing said that an important observation point is the upcoming January-February investment, consumption and other macroeconomic data, as well as February financial data. Among them, we can focus on whether the growth rate of various loan balances in February can be realized from falling to rising.
“Supplementing the funding gap, providing medium- and long-term incremental funds, and lowering the reserve ratio are optional.”CITIC SecuritiesThe co-chief economist Mingming believes that although the medium-term lending facility (MLF) maturity pressure will be low in the next quarter, there will still be a peak in the tax period and the liquidity gap caused by the issuance of government bonds, which may become the trigger for the RRR cut.At present, the liquidity gap in the banking system is relatively small, and the excess reserve rate of banks has also declined again. It is necessary to further guide financial institutions to increase credit supply and reduce loans.interest rateon the one hand, it is necessary to make up for the medium and long-term funding gap, and on the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the cost of debt.
The market expects an increase in the probability of a “rate cut”
In addition to the RRR cut, the policyinterest rate“Rate cut” is also a policy option.
Zhang Yu reminded the market to pay attention to the possibility of MLF “cutting interest rates” on March 15.She believes that since the United States in FebruaryCPIThe year-on-year data is likely to rise further compared to January this year. In the context of rising inflation, it is not ruled out that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in the future to curb inflation. Therefore, on March 15, the People’s Bank of China has the possibility of “cutting interest rates”. On the one hand, it can demonstrate independence and boost internal confidence; on the other hand, it can also reduce the financing cost of the whole society and help to accelerate the restoration of “credit expansion”.
“Looking back, the current level of the stock base currency is not low. With the further release of the base currency by the end of the quarter, the probability of a RRR cut in the near future will decrease. However, due to the repeated impact of overseas risks and the epidemic, the financial market fluctuates greatly, and economic expectations are weak. The probability of a near-term ‘rate cut’ is increasing.”GF SecuritiesNi Jun, chief analyst at the bank, said.
Wang Yiming, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in his speech at the second plenary meeting of the Fifth Session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference that a prudent monetary policy is more precise, the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and more inclusive small and micro businesses Loans, and medium and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry grew rapidly, and the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises was stable with some decline.
“RRR cuts and interest rate cuts need to comprehensively consider changes in the economic situation. Overall, the probability of appearing in the first quarter is not large, and it may be in the third or fourth quarter.”Bank of ChinaLiang Si, a researcher at the research institute, said that it is still possible to cut RRR and “cut interest rates”, but it is not necessary to continuously cut RRR and “cut interest rates”. The best way is to “see while walking” to see the actual effect of the policy.
(Article source: Shanghaisecuritiesnewspaper)