(Original title: Sudden! The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection’s soul tortured the “shutdown power cut”, and Shanxi sent a heavy message! The Development and Reform Commission responded, the wind direction quietly changed, and the market correction started?)
The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has begun to pay attention to the “cutting the switch and limiting the power”!
On September 29, the official account of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection suddenly published an article titled “What are the problems highlighted by power cuts? “The manuscript. The article pointed out that in the face of high coal prices, large coal-fired power generation companies have naturally lost their enthusiasm to “seeking coal to protect electricity.” Although renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics are developing rapidly, it is still difficult to shoulder important tasks for the time being. The blind launch of the “two highs” projects in some areas has affected the power supply to a certain extent. The huge energy consumption of the “mining” projects has exacerbated the local power shortage.
At the same time, the market suddenly reported the contents of the Shanxi Energy Bureau’s guarantee meeting. The National Development and Reform Commission also responded to people’s livelihood concerns, saying that it will release advanced coal production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations, increase coal imports in an orderly manner, try its best to increase domestic natural gas production, maintain stable imports of pipeline gas from Central Asia, and compact responsibility to ensure that coal-electric power units should be fully developed. .
In fact, there were some changes in the policy winds involving issues such as real estate and energy supply on Wednesday night. So, should market corrections also be opened?
The soul torture of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection
On September 29, the official account of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection suddenly published an article titled “What are the problems highlighted by power cuts? “The manuscript. The article pointed out that in recent days, power supply shortages in individual places have caused concern.
The article pointed out that the price of standard coal in my country has jumped from 1,200 yuan/ton to the current 2,000 yuan/ton, resulting in serious losses for large coal-fired power plants, which are the main force in power production. Faced with high coal prices, large coal-fired power generation companies will naturally Lost the enthusiasm of “seeking coal to protect electricity”. Although renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics are developing rapidly, it is still difficult to shoulder important tasks for the time being.
The article mentioned that the blind launch of the “two highs” project in some areas has affected the power supply to a certain extent, and has promoted the emergence of the current power cuts. Energy-consuming projects have not yet exerted an impact on energy consumption. In addition, the huge energy consumption of “mining” projects has aggravated local power shortages and expanded the scope of power curtailment, which runs counter to my country’s carbon peak carbon neutral and high-quality development goals and should be taken seriously.
The article pointed out that governments at all levels should not simply regard green and low-carbon circular development as tasks and pressures, which should be passed on to enterprises at all levels, and should help everyone understand the benefits and opportunities brought about by the new development concept, and guide everyone to consciously implement it. In some places, there is insufficient research and early warning, insufficient guidance and tolerance for the problems or mistakes that may occur in the process of the enterprise, and the phenomenon of sports promotion, sports law enforcement, and sports shutdown occur from time to time, and the results are counterproductive. You should take warning. Green and low-carbon circular development is by no means simple pollution indicators, carbon control indicators and energy consumption standards, but requires enterprise understanding, public support, and gradual progress and technical support. Governments at all levels should follow the central government’s requirements for decentralization, control, and service, with a sense of service in the form of “shops and small two”, to be the disseminators, servers, and practitioners of the new development concept, rather than bystanders.
Shanxi rumors and the response of the Development and Reform Commission
Regarding the issue of electricity, the most important thing is to solve the problem of coal. Today the market posted a “Main Contents of the Shanxi Energy Administration Meeting to Guarantee Supply”, which mainly includes:
1. As of the end of the year, Shanxi Province will provide 55 million yuan to sign long-term agreements with 14 provinces. The price of the long-term association is not the annual long-term agreement price of 550 yuan. But it can be slightly deducted from the northern port, for example, 100 yuan. The overall principle is: the National Energy Administration has overall control, and the supply and demand sides can connect freely.
2. The trade volume will be automatically transferred to the long-term association next year next year. After signing the agreement, taking several major power companies in Anhui Province as an example, the province’s coal shortage is only about 500,000 tons. That is to say, almost full coverage of the long-term cooperation coal supply has been achieved.
3. After the meeting in Shanxi Province, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi will also meet in the same way.
At present, the content of this meeting has not been officially endorsed, but it is widely circulated in the market.
At the same time, on September 29, the responsible comrades of the Economic Operation and Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission answered reporters’ questions about energy supply this winter and next spring. This answer to a reporter’s question once rushed to the top of Baidu’s hot search list. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will release advanced coal production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations, increase coal imports in an orderly manner, try its best to increase domestic natural gas production, and maintain stable imports of pipeline gas from Central Asia.
The National Development and Reform Commission always regards the guarantee of coal supply during the heating season as an important work for people’s livelihood and, in conjunction with relevant parties, does everything possible to take effective and effective measures to ensure a safe and stable supply of coal:
One is to make every effort to increase production and supply while ensuring safety. Guide major coal-producing areas and key enterprises, scientifically formulate production plans, and safely and effectively release advanced production capacity.
The second is to further nuclear increase and put into production high-quality production capacity. Support qualified coal mines with high-quality production capacity to release advanced production capacity.
The third is to moderately increase coal imports. Support enterprises to make good use of international resources, maintain a moderate import scale, and effectively supplement domestic supply.
The fourth is to focus on improving the level of coal storage. Support localities and enterprises to strengthen the construction of coal reserve capacity, prepare a certain scale of emergency reserve resources, and focus on increasing coal storage in power plants.
Fifth, we will focus on ensuring the needs of coal for power generation and heating. Give full play to the role of “ballast” in coal medium and long-term contracts. On the basis of annual medium and long-term contracts, organize production, transportation and demand enterprises to sign up for contracts, promote full coverage of medium and long-term coal contracts for power generation and heating, and at the same time strengthen performance supervision to ensure power generation supply Stable supply and stable prices of coal for civilian use such as heat.
The sixth is to standardize the order of market operations, strengthen market supervision in conjunction with relevant departments, and severely investigate and punish violations such as price hikes to stabilize social expectations.
The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in order to guarantee the supply of energy for the people’s livelihood, a very important measure is to implement full contract coverage of the energy use for the people’s livelihood. To this end, coal companies and power generation companies have been organized to sign a medium- and long-term agreement for power coal to achieve full coverage of coal for power generation and heating. At the same time, organize gas supply companies and local governments to sign gas supply contracts in an all-round way, covering all gas supply contracts for people’s livelihoods. All localities are required to include gas buses and taxis into the scope of gas consumption for people’s livelihoods for protection.
The wind direction quietly changed
Judging from the policy signals on the evening of the 29th, some changes have taken place in the wind direction. Against the background that people’s livelihood issues are becoming increasingly prominent, policy efforts are more inclined to protect people’s livelihood. This is reflected in both energy supply and real estate policies. So, will the market follow suit and change?
Judging from the market situation on Wednesday, changes have actually taken place. The coal industry has already seen a collective crash that day. Yanzhou Coal and Blue Flame Holdings both dropped their limits, Shanxi Coal International, Shanxi Coking and other companies plummeted, and thermal coal continued to plummet at night; while real estate was relatively strong, a party on Wednesday night The statements of the two sessions also gave the real estate a boost. It can be expected that on the last trading day before the National Day, the real estate industry is likely to rise sharply.
What’s more worth mentioning is that a leading brokerage firm expects to lower its RRR again in October. The brokerage said that the industry is still at the stage of partial real estate credit risk exposure. If there is no external intervention, some private real estate enterprises lack the ability to borrow new and repay the old at a reasonable cost in the bond market at this stage, and related credit risks are still fermenting. In this context, the liquidity “firewall” needs to be thickened, and macro-liquidity is likely to maintain a period of ample, to prevent credit risks from spreading to the financial system.
This week, the central bank’s open market operations net investment of 370 billion yuan, the highest single-week net investment in the past eight months; it is expected that the inter-bank interest rate DR007 will continue to be pegged to the center of 2.2%; the 10-year treasury bond yield will remain at 2.8%~3.0% The low range of operation. In view of the MLF maturity in the fourth quarter totaling 2.45 trillion yuan, they believe that there is still room for a comprehensive RRR cut, and the specific timing is expected to land in October.
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