Source: Nanhua Futures Author: Nanhua Futures
The text of the research report
thermal coal：The changes in the near-end pits are relatively small, with ups and downs, and some stabilization. Shipments are gradually recovering, and ports are slightly under pressure. Indonesian coal prices rose slightly, and thermal coal is expected to remain volatile in the short term.
natural gas:The average temperature in Europe in October was 4 degrees Celsius higher than that in the same period last year, natural gas inventories have been replenished to a high level, and the 20-year WTI situation has reappeared in some regions, and the overall natural gas price has weakened.
Downstream chemicals:The demand side of various chemicals at the near end is relatively bad, polyester,plasticWhen the downstream order data has been declining, the gold nine and silver ten have come to an end, and their own demand has weakened seasonally. At the same time, the overall perception of the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, and we should pay attention to whether the policy side has real flexibility at the margin.
Summary of the week:
In terms of supply, the coal-based supply side in the mainland has declined significantly, and the support given by thermal coal has been obvious, but the coal has weakened slightly recently (the factory price has been delayed).methanolAfter the rebound, the profit has recovered slightly, and I will pay attention to the return of Huayu and other devices. In addition, there is still no reliable news about Baofeng’s production, so it will not be considered for the time being.
Inventory, this week, the mainland inventory is basically flat, and it will be higher in the future. After the factory has stopped, the pressure on the mainland has been reduced a lot, and the port has accumulated a small amount of inventory. The basis has weakened, and the absolute level is still high.
Demand, Zhongyuan Ethylene and Xingxing stopped due to profit, and the probability of driving in November is small, and Lianhong, Yangmei and other MTO loads are not high. Changzhou Fude has been successfully restarted. Shenghong is currently loaded with 70% (normal and decompression feed this weekend), and the remaining Chengzhi Phase II may have plans to change from small to large in November. These two sets will be focused on in November.
In the spot, the port basis has weakened, and the transaction volume has shrunk, and the close on Friday afternoon remained around +220-230. Import and export, Kavi stopped this week, Iran’s shipment in November is planned to be around 56-60, and the import volume in November is expected to be around 100-105, and the month-on-month increase will not be particularly large.
View:The contradiction in the industrial chain is not large, and the view of shock is maintained. The macro atmosphere this week is very good, mainly due to some rumors of the epidemic policy and the restoration of the excessive pessimism in the early stage. The overall rhythm of the absolute price of methanol is linked with the beta of the market. The contradictions in its own fundamentals have not intensified, and the perceived pressure is much less after parking in the mainland.
After the port suspended destocking, the tension and frenzy of paper cargoes also eased slightly, and the basis also decreased to a certain extent. At present, the main contradiction of the balance sheet lies in the dynamics of Nanjing Chengzhi and Shenghong. If these two sets are fulfilled, there will be a huge accumulation of warehouses in the port in December, which is the main reason why the 01 basis is currently so high.
The weakening of ports in the future is relatively certain, and the game lies in whether the basis has fully expressed the expectation of future weakening. And this judgment is relatively difficult, and from the balance sheet, if the MTO fails to fulfill, it will still be relatively difficult for the port to accumulate warehouses, that is, the judgment of this accumulation of warehouses cannot withstand any accidents.
Methanol has always been an accident-prone variety. From this perspective, the transaction value is actually relatively low. What is relatively certain is still the strong support and pressure on the upper and lower margins.
Strategy:The put-straddle option proposed in the previous period continued to be held.
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