The sodium-ion battery, which was originally a “firefighter” that appeared as a last resort due to the high price of upstream raw materials for lithium batteries, has gradually become the industry’s most popular lithium-ion battery under the increasing cost pressure of lithium-ion batteries as lithium prices have not shown a downward trend. The “powerful opponent” side by side, and the sodium-ion battery, which has always been known for its high cost performance and low cost, is no longer a simple concept, but is expected to achieve real commercialization in 2023. The industrialization of the entire sodium-ion battery The process officially sounded the countdown.
Wall Street Insights and Wisdom Research believes that this grand event not only shows that many upstream and downstream manufacturers attach great importance to sodium-ion batteries, are willing to invest in research and development, and continue to promote the progress of commercial mass production of sodium-ion batteries, but also foretells the development of sodium-ion batteries. The battery is expected to truly start the first year of industrialization next year and achieve a breakthrough from 0 to 1.
Among them, the three positive electrode routes of the sodium-ion battery itself, the material and system issues such as hard carbon and soft carbon negative electrode, and the development direction in many fields that do not require high energy density, such as two-wheeled vehicles and energy storage, have been seen on Wall Street. Jianzhi Research has already analyzed in detail in many previous articles. This article will not repeat it. This article mainly focuses on the application of sodium-ion batteries in the field of new energy vehicles and the prospect of sodium-lithium hybrids.
1. Sodium-ion batteries mainly meet the needs of A00 and A0 electric vehicle models
On November 29, my country’s first sodium-ion battery industry chain and standard development forum was successfully held. Many leading battery manufacturers in the field of sodium-ion batteries, such as Ningde Times and Zhongkehaina, expressed their interest in the technological development and future of sodium-ion batteries. Trends are discussed.
And as the power battery giant Ningde Times mentioned at the meeting, in the field of new energy passenger vehicles, pure sodium-ion batteries can meet the basic needs of new energy vehicle models with a cruising range of less than 400 kilometers. Regarding this, Wall Street has learned ·Jianzhi Research believes that it can be viewed from two aspects of new energy vehicles and power batteries.
First of all, the new energy vehicle models with a distance of less than 400 kilometers mainly include A00 and A0 electric vehicle models. Although the growth rate of these two types of models has slowed down compared with other models (mainly because the sales of plug-in hybrid models of other models have increased relatively fast, and A00 and A0 electric vehicle models basically do not have plug-in hybrid models), but they still account for a large part of the domestic market. In the first ten months of this year, the cumulative sales of A00 and A0 electric vehicle models Reached 1.374 million vehicles, accounting for as high as 31%.
Even without considering the performance improvement of the follow-up sodium-ion battery itself in terms of energy density, the market share of new energy vehicles that only wins this piece cannot be underestimated, let alone the cruising range of electric vehicles is expected If it is further increased to 500 kilometers, the covered models will be further extended to A-level electric vehicles (accounting for 35%).
Moreover, Wall Street Insights and Wisdom Research believes that the potential of A00 and A0-level electric vehicle models is not limited to this. In the first half of this year, due to the continuous increase in the price of upstream raw materials, especially lithium, and the increase in the double-point price of new energy that exceeds supply Weakness has led to the impact of small and micro electric vehicles headed by A00-level and A0-level electric vehicle models.
Many new energy auto companies have chosen to raise prices for popular micro-miniature electric vehicles with good sales, such as Wuling Hongguang MINI EV and Chery New Energy Ant. It seems high, basically around 10%-15%), or electric vehicle products such as the Black Cat and White Cat under Great Wall Euler have announced that they will stop accepting orders due to the high cost of raw materials.
If the follow-up can be equipped with more cost-effective sodium-ion batteries to solve the cost pressure of terminal car companies, it is clear that A00-class and A0-class models are expected to continue to maintain high growth in sales, especially in the second half of this year. New energy vehicles also introduced the rural policy ( The best sales are still A00 and A0), which also shows the emphasis on small and micro models, and better promotion of A00 and A0 electric vehicle models.
2. Sodium-ion batteries have reached the lower limit of lithium-ion batteries
The previous article mainly made predictions about the development prospects of sodium-ion batteries in the field of new energy vehicles, and sodium-ion batteries themselves are actually gradually getting ready to enter the market.
Judging from the requirements for lithium-ion batteries in my country’s latest “Lithium-ion Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2021 Version)”, the energy density of energy-type single batteries must be greater than 160Wh/kg, while the energy density of battery packs must be greater than 115Wh/kg , the cycle life is greater than 1000 times and the capacity retention rate is greater than 80%. At present, the single energy density of sodium-ion batteries from many manufacturers in the market can reach 130 Wh/Kg to 150 Wh/Kg, and the best among them, such as CATL, can reach 160 Wh/Kg.
Moreover, since the structural technologies of lithium-ion batteries such as CTP, CTC, and blade batteries can all be used on sodium-ion batteries, the reduction rate of system energy density should be similar to that of lithium-ion batteries (about 20%), so sodium The energy density of ion battery packs can also reach 105 Wh/Kg to 120 Wh/Kg, basically reaching the lower limit of lithium-ion batteries. In other words, sodium-ion batteries themselves are gradually ready to enter the market. , Only after the upstream and downstream of the sodium-ion battery industry chain is completely improved, mass production will be realized.
As for the sodium-lithium mix-and-match technology that the market pays more attention to, in fact, the mix-and-match technology itself is not limited to sodium-ion batteries and lithium-ion batteries, but can also be used for mixed discharge of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. The technology itself is only for sodium ions Batteries and lithium-ion batteries are connected in series and parallel in a certain proportion, and finally integrated into the same power battery system.
Among them, the better energy density advantage of lithium-ion batteries can improve the overall performance of sodium-ion batteries to a certain extent, making their batteries expected to be used in A-class electric vehicles, expanding the use of sodium-ion batteries in the field of new energy vehicles. The better cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries can also reduce the cost of the overall power battery, instead of being under pressure due to the continuous rise in lithium prices, forming a win-win situation.
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