[摘要]The price of pigs and grains has entered the first-level early warning range of excessive decline, and the country will start the purchase and storage of pork reserves.
The price of pigs and grains has entered the first-level early warning range of excessive decline, and the country will start the purchase and storage of pork reserves. The National Development and Reform Commission stated today (February 6) that according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national average pig-grain ratio was 4.96:1 in the week of January 30-February 3, which entered the “Improving the Government’s Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism” Do a good job in the first-level early warning range for excessive decline determined in the Work Plan for Guaranteeing Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market. The National Development and Reform Commission will start the collection and storage of central frozen pork reserves with relevant departments, and guide the simultaneous purchase and storage of local regions.
Zhou Lin, an associate researcher at the Food and Nutrition Development Research Institute of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told reporters that just after the Spring Festival, the price of pigs returned to a downward trend, which made the breeders suffer from the irrational operation of the second fattening and blindly suppressing the stalls. According to analysis, if the stalls are not suppressed, the live pig market will see steady supply and demand growth, and the price of pigs in the first half of the year may be higher than that of the same period last year (14.61 yuan per kilogram). Lin Guofa, an industry expert and research director of Brick Agricultural Big Data Technology Group, told the reporter of Shanghai Securities News that at the end of January 2023, the national and international average price of the third party is 14 yuan/kg, which is 2-2.5 yuan/kg lower than the current industry average cost. The loss of raising a head of pigs is 250-400 yuan, and the loss is even greater in the case of stalling. The timely action of the National Development and Reform Commission at this time has played a huge role in boosting market confidence and smoothing market fluctuations.
Just after the Spring Festival, the price of pigs returned to the downward trend
Just after the Spring Festival, the price of pigs returned to the downward trend.
“According to our observations, since monitoring began in 2009, 11 of the 15 years have lost money after the Spring Festival, and this year is no exception.” Zhou Lin told reporters that this probability is also higher in years with normal production capacity. It is to make people who believe in “lack of pigs” suffer.
She said frankly that it was the irrational operators of the second fattening and blind pressing of the stalls that drove the price of pigs to a greater extent in the second half of last year.
Lin Guofa told reporters that at the end of January 2023, the national and international average price is 14 yuan/kg, which is 2-2.5 yuan/kg lower than the current industry average cost, and the loss of a single pig breeding is 250-400 yuan, and the loss is even greater in the case of stalling .
“The price of pigs began to fall from a high of 28.5 yuan/kg in mid-to-late October 2022. The decline in the early stage was relatively slow. After entering November, there were many panic drops. If it falls below 12 yuan/kg, the national average price will drop to 13.5 yuan/kg.” Lin Guofa said.
According to analysis, the reason for the current round of pig price decline can be roughly summarized as the excessive optimism of the market participants in the Spring Festival pig price in the early stage, which is reflected in the optimistic expectation of pork consumption in winter and the two festivals. At the same time, it failed to pay attention to the objective situation of delaying the slaughter of live pigs to increase the supply of pork in the later stage, and also ignored the increase in the average breeding efficiency of sows. The same number of sows on hand can provide more surviving piglets.
Timely action by the regulatory authorities is expected to smooth out fluctuations
“The National Development and Reform Commission made a timely statement at this time, which has a great effect on boosting market confidence and easing market volatility. Otherwise, the market volatility of last year and this year will far exceed expectations.” Lin Guofa said.
He told reporters that in 2022, the relevant competent authorities will guide prices many times, purchase and store frozen meat in the first half of the year, and remind many times in the fourth quarter to pay attention to reasonable slaughter. The purchase and storage of frozen meat in the first half of the year stabilized the confidence of farmers and reduced the excessive elimination of sows.
The reporter also noticed that in the second half of 2022, domestic hog prices will generally fluctuate upwards, especially due to factors such as excessive pressure from some farmers to sell, secondary fattening, and increased market consumption during holidays. In early and mid-October, it once rose a lot. For this reason, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments quickly adopted a series of control measures to increase investment and storage. A total of 7 batches of central pork reserves have been released, effectively guaranteeing market supply. At the same time, guide farmers to sell normally. Published information many times to guide farmers to take advantage of the trend to sell fattening pigs, not to blindly suppress the sale and second fattening, and avoid the risk of price fluctuations.
“However, the price of pigs fluctuated too much in the fourth quarter, and the actual auction volume in October was relatively small. The market did not pay attention to the relevant warning risks, which eventually led to a large number of live pigs being put on the pen, additionally increasing the supply of pork, and leading to 11-12 2022. Monthly pigs are sold out in a run-off manner, and the breeding side speeds up sales.” Lin Guofa suggested strengthening the management of pork reserves, and timely release and stockpiling according to market conditions.
Looking at this year, “the supply of live pigs has been determined in the first half of this year, which is comparable to the same period last year.” Zhou Lin told reporters that the national newborn piglets in the second half of last year were flat year-on-year, and these piglets will be slaughtered in six months. Half-year fattening pigs are on par with last year. From the perspective of demand, it is a high probability event that the demand in the first half of this year will increase compared with last year.
Editor: Zhang Fen