Original title: #金经乐道# 31 provinces in November CPI announced this winter “vegetable basket” is still stable?
Source: Tianmu News
In December and September, the National Bureau of Statistics released its monthly CPI report, and the CPI of 31 provinces was announced in November. In November, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year, a record high for the year. So is everyone’s “vegetable basket” still stable this winter?
Prices in more than half of the provinces are higher than the national level
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2021, the national CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, and the month-on-month growth rate dropped.
Comparing the CPI data of 31 provinces, Yunnan and Tibet’s November CPI rose less than 1% year-on-year, 0.8% and 0.9% respectively; Hainan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Xinjiang, Hunan, Sichuan, Henan, Gansu, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, In November, the CPI in Guangxi’s 12 provinces rose more than 1% year-on-year, but it was lower than the national level.
Among them, 17 provinces have a year-on-year increase in CPI that is higher than the national level. Among them, Tianjin, Ningxia, and Qinghai have the highest increase, respectively 3.0%, 3.0%, and 2.8%.
From the perspective of the more developed regions in the country, the average growth rate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was 2.63%, the Yangtze River Delta region was 2.62%, and the Guangdong region was 2.5%, both higher than the national average, while the Sichuan-Chongqing region was 1.8%.
In terms of specific categories, national food prices rose by 2.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and non-food prices changed from a month-on-month increase of 0.4% to the same level. Among non-food products, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.3% month-on-month, of which the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 3.1%, 3.3% and 1.2% respectively; the price of services changed from a month-on-month increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.3%. After the reduction in travel and the spread of the epidemic, the prices of air tickets, travel agency fees and hotel accommodation fell by 14.8%, 3.8% and 3.7% respectively.
Source: Tianmu NewsCold air affected the “vegetable basket”
Ms. Sun, who lives in Xihu District, Hangzhou, told reporters that when she was shopping for food, she found that pork prices had risen significantly in November. Pork belly had risen to 18 yuan or even 20 yuan per catty, and most of the most commonly bought ribs were 25 yuan per catty. about.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, food prices rose by 2.4% month-on-month in November, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.43 percentage points. In food, affected by factors such as seasonal consumption demand growth and short-term tight supply of fat pigs, the price of pork has turned from a decline to an increase, rising by 12.2%.
“Pork suddenly stopped falling and rose instead, and overall it was in line with market expectations.” Caitong Securities Market analyst Zhou Ning told reporters that the continuous decline in pork prices, compared with beef and mutton, because of its price advantage, pork is relatively cost-effective. Higher, so consumer demand increased, which helped to a certain extent increase the price of pork.
Monday Ning analyzed that the main factor for the increase in CPI this time was food prices. The winter causes an increase in the demand for meat. Generally speaking, with the arrival of winter, the demand for cured sausages and various types of pork products will greatly increase, which has led to an increase in the demand for pork in the market. According to the law of market supply and demand, the price of pork will also be increased.
With the advent of winter, in addition to the price of meat, the price of vegetables, which people are more concerned about, is rising moderately. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in November, fresh vegetables rose 6.8% month-on-month, a decrease of 9.8% from the previous month, and fresh fruits rose 4.3% month-on-month, an increase of 1.4% from the previous month.
From a year-on-year perspective, Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the year-on-year increase in CPI has increased significantly. In addition to the new price increase in November, it was mainly due to the low base of the same period last year. In food, the price of pork fell by 32.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 11.3 percentage points from the previous month; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 30.6%, the rate of increase expanded by 14.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, said that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has expanded. In addition to the base effect, there are two major influence factors. First, non-food prices have risen rapidly, indicating that the continued high PPI has been partially transmitted to the downstream, which can be confirmed by the 1% increase in the price of subsistence in the factory price of industrial producers; second, among the sub-category commodities, the price of transportation and communication has increased significantly. , A year-on-year increase of 7.6%, which is mainly related to the substantial increase in crude oil prices in November, and also shows that this part of the cost is quickly transmitted to the end consumer products.
CPI may stabilize in the future
The reporter combed and found that in the first three quarters of this year, the CPI was operating at a low level. In October this year, the CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year, which was already a new high for the year. In November, the CPI rose again by more than 2% year-on-year. Regarding the future trend of CPI, analysts are basically the same, believing that CPI will stabilize or even fall.
Zhou Ning predicts that the increase in food prices is temporary. At present, the supply of live pigs and vegetables in our country is very sufficient. From December to the first quarter of next year, food prices will fall, which will further affect the CPI. It is expected that the growth rate of CPI will slow down in December.
The recent sporadic epidemics in various places have also indirectly affected the total consumer demand. After excluding food and energy, from the perspective of core CPI, which can better measure total social demand, core CPI in November fell by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 1.2% year-on-year, a slight slowdown from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in total demand.
“Before the epidemic, my country’s core CPI has been above 1% for a long time, but it fell to a negative growth in 2020. As the epidemic resumes, the core CPI has recovered to 1.3% in October 2021. It is expected that the core CPI is expected to rise to 1.5%-2.0% in 2022. Historically normal range.” said Ying Xiwen, a macro analyst at the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute.
Recently, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the Economic Blue Book for 2022. It is expected that prices will rise moderately in 2022, PPI growth will decline, CPI growth will increase, PPI will rise about 5%, and CPI will rise about 2.5%. The scissors gap between the two will be significantly reduced.
“Combined with previous price trends and a series of related factors, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in December will be the same as that in November, and the annual CPI increase is expected to remain around 2%.” Professor Cao Heping from the School of Economics of Peking University said in an interview with the media.
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