The 2020 for catering will be remembered as the year of closed restaurants. The sector during the pandemic saw a loss of about 40% of the turnover recorded in 2019, a record year for out-of-home food shopping with a turnover of 86 billion euros.
But the numbers that weigh the most are those of closures: 22,692 companies in the sector have closed their doors, while only some have been started 9.207. This is the lowest figure in the last 10 years. The big cities are experiencing significant suffering: those that have lost the most activities are Roma (-1.518), Milano (-722) e Torino (-549), but the one that recorded the greatest increase in missing premises compared to the previous year is Florence, with + 87% on 2019.
This is what emerged from the 2021 Report of the Catering Observatory, a spin-off of the agency RestaurateurTop. The study, carried out by processing data from different sources (including State e Censis, Fipe Coldiretti e Federalberghi, the databases of Infocamere and the web app Plateform.) analyzed what happened to the sector in the year of the pandemic, with the aim of making forecasts as realistic as possible regarding the future.
Lights and shadows
2020 was a year of change and revolution. It recorded the highest number of registered businesses ever, 397,700 of which 340,564 active. A phenomenon determined by the numerous variations of the Ateco code. It is the year in which 77% of the premises have worked with home deliveries and 27% of the entrepreneurs in the sector have started a dark kitchen or a virtual brand to deal with forced closures. The period opened the doors to widespread technological innovation in the preparation, distribution and use of food.
If food shopping outside the home has been steadily increasing since 2013, marking a record of 86 billion in 2019, the loss in turnover in 2020 has been estimated with a range that goes from the most pessimistic result, -42% (-34 billion euro compared to 2019), at the most optimistic -34% (-29 billion on 2019). A decline that does not represent a lethal blow, but nevertheless very serious and unprecedented, which creates enormous damage in the long term, not only for business owners and employees, but also for the entire direct and indirect supply chain.
Negative balances
According to data from Movimprese – the birth-mortality index of Infocamere companies – 2019 was confirmed as the worst year ever in terms of business closures in the restaurant sector: 26,979 (906 more than in 2018). 2020, on the other hand, recorded the best figure in the last ten years, with “only” 22,692 businesses closed in the sector. But it is also the year that recorded the lowest number of new businesses started in the last 10 years: 9,207. The balance between registered and discontinued activities is -13,485, the second most negative ever after 2019 (-13,794).
Suffering city
At the top of the negative podium of the closures is the city of Florence with -262 units (+ 87% on the previous year), then Rome with -1.518 (+ 25%) and Palermo with -228 (+ 13%). Milan lost 722 activities, + 0.1% compared to 2019, while Naples, with 342 terminations (in 2019 they were 454), and Turin, with 549 (in 2019 they were 637). Overall, in the last 10 years, 117,445 restaurant businesses have been lost. Despite this, in 2020 the registered activities are 397,700, of which 340,564 are active. Both record numbers in Italian history.
Delivery and technology
For long periods of 2020 the only possible forms of survival were delivery and take away, with the consequent proliferation of dark, gray, ghost and cloud kitchens, or kitchens “closed” to the public or shared between professionals. According to a first survey carried out at the end of phase 2 within the RestauratoreTop community (we are talking about over 11 thousand restaurateurs from all over Italy), 77% of the premises have embarked on the path of delivery and take-away, while the rest of the interviewees he preferred to remain closed.
A second survey carried out within the same community in the middle of the second pandemic wave investigated whether the delivery was carried out independently or with the support of the sector platforms: 43% said they make deliveries directly, with their own fleet of riders, 3 % to rely solely on external platforms, while 9% to use both methods, 22% were organizing to implement home deliveries, while 23% decided not to resort to delivery.
“This did not depend solely on the impossibility of using their own rooms – he explains Lorenzo Ferrari, founder of the Catering Observatory – but also and above all by the growing awareness on the part of restaurateurs that these platforms, in addition to retaining percentages of up to 35% of gross orders, retain what has proved to be a real treasure in the year of the pandemic: customer data, including their consumption habits. Those who have autonomous delivery with their own fleet, often converting the employees in the dining room and kitchen to riders, and with digital booking and data management systems, have been able to use the customers’ contacts, both new and regular, and thus survive. to forced closures with better results than those who have outsourced deliveries “.
Le dark kitchen
A third RestauratoreTop survey carried out shortly before the reopening of April 2021 reveals that 27% of restaurateurs created a dark kitchen or a virtual brand during the pandemic period, also used in the production of foods other than those usually produced. 10% of the interviewees also stated that they want to keep the delivery or the dark kitchen even after the reopening at full capacity.
Furthermore, the health emergency has forced an entire sector to set in motion a ten-year path of technological innovation in a few months. In Italy, for example, the use of technology has resulted in digital menus, online bookings, self-ordering, calling room staff remotely with special devices, new applications to manage staff shifts, billing and relations with suppliers, cashless payments at the table and at the cash desk, conveyor belts for food. Technology is not only revolutionizing the dining room and kitchen, but also the way in which customers discover, choose, evaluate and build loyalty.
The process of choice
The Plateform platform carried out a research among the customers of over 600 businesses in the major Italian urban centers to analyze the mechanisms of choice during the pandemic. Word of mouth reigns supreme with 48.5% of cases, followed by social networks (14.5%), by the casual passage in front of the local (13%), by TripAdvisor with 13.1%, by Google local search with 10.3% and, finally, by the advice of the hotel or other accommodation facilities (1%). The survey also took into consideration the choice process with respect to delivery: with 24.09% of cases, word of mouth is undermined in the ranking by the web, between social networks and search engines (Facebook 27.66%, Instagram 9 , 75%, Google 7.77%). 20.75% said they were already customers, the rest that they had discovered the restaurant through other sources. Almost overlapping data also emerged with respect to take-away.
The consolidated trends
According to the Catering Observatory, among the consolidated trends in Italy in 2020, the growth of “accessible cool” restaurants stands out, that is restaurants accessible to most, but experienced by users as tending to luxury thanks to an important work on image and quality perceived, and the spread of ethnic foods or forms of enjoyment of “all-in-one” meals, that is unique dishes accompanied at most by a starter and a side dish, with a strong international footprint. In this category, foods that must be eaten cold and therefore do not alternate during delivery, such as sushi and poke, and burgers, perceived as comfort food, stood out. Among the exploding trends in 2021, on the other hand, the rise of “accessible convenience” restaurants is expected, accessible to anyone, with good value for money for the consumer but with basically low margins for the restaurateur, who will tend to work more on the quantity of receipts beaten rather than their average value.
“Delivery and dark kitchens will not replace traditional catering – he adds Ferrari – given that the future of catering is restaurants: the experience lived in the presence, in the restaurant, is irreplaceable “.
However, the pandemic has marked more differences between social classes, increasing the purchasing power gap between the middle and the more affluent. “This will have strong impacts in the coming months also with respect to catering, with the increase in activity at both ends, luxury and accessible convenience, to satisfy every type of need – concludes Ferrari – because catering, since it has existed, has not looked into your pocket. to anyone but tries to satisfy everyone’s palates “.
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