The demand side continues to be weak, methanol supply and demand pressure is highlighted | Methanol_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Dayue Futures Author: Dayue Futures

Research report text

【Methanol2301】

1、Fundamentals: In the first half of the week, the domestic methanol market declined as a whole, and in the case of a large supply-demand contradiction, the center of gravity of the mainland production areas fell sharply, which was 110-120 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. , but the current downstream demand is weak and the inventory of raw materials in northern Lubei is high, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the pace of some high-end compensatory declines. The port maintains the link between the period and the spot, and pays close attention to the delivery logic. The 01 contract and the spot return rhythm, and it is expected that the short-term weak order will be the main focus; neutral.

2、Basis: On December 6, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu was 2655 yuan / ton, with a basis of 153, and the spot premium futures; more.

3、in stock: As of December 1, 2022, the total social inventory of methanol in East China and South China ports is 355,300 tons, an increase of 20,900 tons compared with the same period last week; tons, an increase of 25,800 tons over the same period last week; bearish.

4、disk: The 20-day moving average is lower, and the price is near the moving average; bearish.

5、main position: The main force holds empty orders, and the empty decreases; bearish.

6、expected: At present, the pressure on the supply and demand of methanol is prominent, and the mentality of the industry is bearish. In addition, under the influence of uncertain factors such as the subsequent weather, it is expected that the subsequent trend of the methanol market in the mainland will be weak. Pay attention to the cost side and the changes in epidemic prevention policies in many places. The short-term performance of ports may be weak due to the decline in the start of olefins and the main futures change month, while the performance of far-month futures is relatively strong due to the support of macro-epidemic policy adjustments. Short-term 2470-2530 interval operation, long-term secondary main force holds more than one light warehouse.

[Recent long-short analysis]

profitable:

1. Some gas head installations in the southwest are scheduled to stop near the end of November and early December, and local supply may be tightened;

2. Changzhou Funde has been restarted at the end of October, and the load is average;

3. Entering winter, international natural gas may become tighter, pay attention to the changes in Iran’s start of construction and shipments to China in December;

4. The arrival of imports to the port is lower than expected, and the spot goods at the port are still tight.

Bad news:

1. The overall macro-economy is weak, and overseas interest rate hike expectations still exist, which may suppress the recovery of internal demand;

2. Continue to pay attention to the follow-up Ningxia new plant commissioning progress, etc.;

3. Coal prices have declined recently, and attention should be paid to the impact on changes in methanol units; subsequent maintenance units have been restored one after another, such as Jinneng, Shandong Rongxin, etc., and the supply of methanol is still abundant.

Market driven:Cost support and weak demand.

risk point:The demand side continues to be weak.

【Domestic Methanol Spot Price】

【Methanol base difference】

【Production profit of each process of methanol】

【Load of domestic methanol enterprises】

【External Methanol Price and Price Difference】

[Methanol import price difference]

【Price of Methanol Traditional Downstream Products】

【Profit and load of formaldehyde production】

【Dimethyl ether production profit and load】

【Profit and load of acetic acid production】

【MTO production profit and load】

【Methanol port inventory】

【Methanol Warehouse Receipt and Effective Forecast】

【Overhaul of domestic methanol facilities】

【Overhaul of domestic methanol facilities】

【Overhaul of Methanol International Plant】

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