The demand side has yet to recover and it is expected that cotton will mainly fluctuate in the short term – yqqlm

Source: Everbright Futures Author: Everbright Futures

Research report text

【cotton】

Comments:

On Wednesday, ICE US cotton fell 2.97% to close at 82.08 cents/lb.Zheng MianCF301 rose 0.85% to close at 13,655 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price in Xinjiang was 14,562 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. China’s cotton price index was 14,887 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan from the previous day. /Ton. In the international market, the market is not very optimistic about the future of the US economy. The US dollar index fell slightly yesterday, and the continued decline in crude oil prices also dragged down the price of US cotton. The price of US cotton fell sharply yesterday.

In the domestic market, the General Administration of Customs announced the export data of textiles and clothing. In November, my country’s textile and clothing exports were 24.39 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous month. Weak, the demand side has yet to recover, cotton is under greater upward pressure, and it is expected to be dominated by short-term shocks. Follow-up will continue to pay attention to changes in macro risks and changes in the consumer side.

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【white sugar】

White sugar raw sugar futures continued to trade sideways, with the main contract closing at 19.49 cents/lb. There will be more sugar mills in China starting to squeeze this week, and it is expected to reach the peak of crushing in mid-December. The price of old sugar is 5480~5500 yuan/ton, and the price of new sugar is 5550~5770 yuan/ton, which is basically the same. Domestic new sugars have been launched one after another, and the supply is sufficient. The current terminal stocking is mainly based on rigid demand, and the consumer side has not yet shown a strong rebound.

As of the end of November, the country produced a total of 850,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 90,000 tons year-on-year; the country’s cumulative sales of sugar were 150,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 18.2%. The May contract on the disk is temporarily treated in the range of 5,500-5,750 yuan/ton, waiting for the guidance of raw sugar.

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2. Daily data monitoring

3. Market information

1. On December 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 957, and the effective forecast was 335, an increase of 115 from the previous trading day.

2. Cotton prices in various regions in China on December 7: Xinjiang 14,562 yuan/ton, Henan 14,811 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 14,990 yuan/ton, Hubei 14,788 yuan/ton.

3. On December 7, China’s yarn load index was 44.8, up 1.6 from the previous day; China’s yarn inventory index was 35.1, up 0.1 from the previous day; China’s gray fabric load index was 43.2, up 1.6 from the previous day; China’s gray cloth inventory index was 36.7, unchanged from the previous day.

4. Domestic sugar spot price on December 7: 5615 yuan/ton in Nanning, unchanged from the previous day. 5. On December 7, the number of white sugar futures warehouse receipts was 1,132, and the effective forecast was 1,697, totaling 2,829.

4. Chart Analysis

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