The global economy pays off “the price of war”, is the title of the new update of the diagnosis on world health published by the OECD. And Italy also does its part: the growth of the beautiful country for next year is expected to be only 0.4%, a number that the new Meloni-powered government should find itself managing in writing a maneuver that presents itself with very few spaces (and short times) to be able to think of inserting strongly identity measures. The message from the OECD Secretary General also arrives at the next government, Mathias Cormannwho by answering a question fromAnsa appeals to Italy to continue to be united and in solidarity with European partners in coping with the shock of the war in Ukraine. “We await the formation of the new government, when we have a new government in Italy we will be happy to work with them to have policies aimed at a better life”, said Cormann, “in the current context it is worth having a strong long-term solidarity in Europe” .
The Paris Organization notes that “the global economy was hit by the Russian invasion of Ukraine” and that “global economic growth stalled in the second quarter of 2022 and indicators in many economies now point to a long period of weak growth “. With the inflationary spiral exacerbated by the conflict, global growth is expected to slow from 3% in 2022 to 2.25% in 2023, “well below the estimated pre-war pace. In 2023,” global real incomes could be about $ 2.8 trillion lower ($ 2.8 trillion, ndr) than expected a year ago (a drop of just over 2% of GDP at purchasing power parity) “.
For the United States andEurozone we are now in “zero point” ground, with the first visas in progress by 0.5% next year and the single block still below (0.3%). Among the main European economies, if we look at 2023 it stands out in a particular way the minus sign in front of Germany, credited with a -0.7% in 2023 and which represents a scissor kick of 2.4 percentage points compared to the latest indications. Italy loses 0.8 points compared to June estimates and plummets to 0.4%, in line with France (0.6%) while Spain is the most dynamic (+ 1.5%). The OECD sees “risks of declining production in several European economies during the winter months”. It then predicts that growth in Chinese it will drop to 3.2% this year, amid the closures of Covid-19 and the weakness of the real estate market, but the support of the policies could help growth in 2023.
Moreover, the situation is particularly tense and ready to get worse on everything. “A more severe fuel shortage, particularly for gas, could reduce growth in Europe by an additional 1.25 percentage points in 2023, with global growth reduced by half a percentage point, and increase European inflation by more than 1 percentage point. 5 percentage points “.
As for theinflation, the return path is not so fast: “Tightening monetary policy and easing supply bottlenecks should moderate inflationary pressures next year, but rising energy prices and cost are likely to of work slow down the pace of descent, “says the OECD. The forecast is that it will decline from 8.2% in 2022 to 6.5% in 2023 in the G20 economies and from 6.2% in the advanced G20 economies this year to 4% in 2023.
Coming to advice on the monetary and economic policy agenda, the OECD sees rate hikes as “necessary” to combat the price race and says that “fiscal support is needed to help cushion the impact of high costs. energy on households and businesses. However, this should be temporary, focused on the most vulnerable, preserve incentives to reduce energy consumption and be withdrawn when pressures on energy prices decrease. “
From Paris the alarm also sounds fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine: “They remain a threat to global food security, particularly when combined with other extreme weather events caused by climate change. International cooperation is necessary to keep agricultural markets open, address urgent needs and strengthen supply “, reads the Intermediate Economic Perspectives.” Governments – underlines the OECD – must ensure that the objectives of energy security and of climate change mitigation are aligned “.