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Futures Daily
Author: Tang Guanghua
With the continuous introduction of domestic economic stabilization policies, the accelerated issuance of national debt and local government special bonds, the marginal easing of real estate policies, the growth of social financing stock has stabilized and rebounded, and the economy will continue to recover.
Affected by the domestic financial data exceeding expectations in January, the accelerated pace of overseas policy tightening, and the sharp rise in US bond yields, the price of Treasury bond futures fell from a high level, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose by 10bp to around 2.8%, returning to the level before the central bank cut interest rates. point.
Social financing growth will continue to stabilize
The increase in social financing scale in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, the highest in a single month, and 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of items, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, a year-on-year increase of 400 billion yuan, mainly due to the significant year-on-year increase in short-term corporate loans and bill financing. Government bonds increased by 602.6 billion yuan in the month, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and corporate bond financing increased by 579.9 billion yuan in the month, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year, both significantly higher than the same period last year, and the increase in corporate bond financing in the month was also higher than historical Average value, wide credit effect appears. New entrusted loans and trust loans were at a low level, with an increase of 33.7 billion yuan and 16.2 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year; due to seasonal effects, undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased significantly by 473.1 billion yuan, but 17.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year.
With short-term loans, bill financing and bond financing significantly higher than the same period last year, the stock of social financing at the end of January 2022 was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate has rebounded for three consecutive months. It is expected that in 2022, driven by the accelerated issuance of local government special bonds and the marginal easing of real estate policies, corporate financing and real estate financing will continue to improve, and the growth rate of social financing stock will continue to stabilize, supporting economic recovery.
Fed tightens pace
According to data released by the United States, non-farm employment unexpectedly increased by 467,000 in January, a three-month high since October last year, and the previous value was significantly revised up. The market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates will increase. Significant upside. At the same time, driven by rising energy prices, the U.S. unseasonably adjusted CPI annual rate (year-on-year growth rate) recorded 7.5% in January, and the unseasonably adjusted core CPI annual rate was 6%, both higher than expected and the previous value, hitting a new high since 1982 .
After the release of the U.S. inflation data, the market’s expectation of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March has increased significantly, and the Fed’s tightening pace will be significantly accelerated, driving the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield to rapidly exceed 2%, and the Sino-U.S. interest rate gap narrowing to within 80bp. In addition, after raising interest rates by 15bp last year, the Bank of England raised interest rates again by 25bp on February 3, and launched a passive balance sheet reduction and corporate bond sales plan. The European Central Bank admitted that the inflation problem was more serious than previously expected, and did not state that it is “unlikely to raise interest rates this year”, and its attitude has changed. The market’s expectations for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates this year have increased, and bond yields of overseas countries have risen significantly, which has a certain impact on the domestic bond market.
No worries about funds
According to data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the CPI rose by 0.9% in January, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the expansion of the decline in food prices. The PPI rose by 9.1%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. At present, the CPI is at a low year-on-year level, and the PPI has gradually fallen year-on-year under the continued implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. In the short term, prices will not constrain the central bank’s monetary policy.
On Tuesday, the central bank launched a 300 billion yuan one-year MLF operation. After cutting interest rates by 10bp in January, the central bank’s operating interest rate remained stable this month and temporarily entered an observation period. The current economy is still facing certain downward pressure, and the central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment. Judging from the money market funding rate, various types of Shibor are near the policy rate, and the inter-bank market pledged repurchase DR007The interest rate fell below 2%, lower than the interest rate of the 7-day reverse repurchase operation, the capital level remained stable, and the liquidity was worry-free.
In general, although the market still has expectations for monetary policy, with the continuous introduction of domestic economic stabilization policies, the accelerated issuance of national government bonds and local government special bonds, the marginal easing of real estate policies, the growth rate of social financing stock has stabilized and rebounded, and the effect of credit easing has gradually emerged. The economy will continue to pick up. Coupled with the accelerated process of interest rate hikes by the Fed overseas, the yield of US bonds has risen sharply, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed significantly, which will have a certain impact on the bond market bulls. It is comprehensively expected that the price of Treasury bond futures may continue to face adjustment. (Author: Shenyin Wanguo Futures)
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