The saturation of the plants at record levels in the last five years (79.9%), over 13 weeks of order backlog and the boom in exports (+ 20% with the United States at + 48%) are not enough to make Emilian entrepreneurs smile -romagnoli. The dynamism of the economy that emerges from the analysis of the first half of 2022 by Unioncamere, Confindustria Emilia-Romagna and Intesa Sanpaolo is in fact destined to quickly give way to zero growth. The data for July confirm the fall and the sentiment of entrepreneurs as stagnation approaches.
The industry stops
The climate of confidence among regional industries has in fact dropped sharply: no longer the majority, but only 32% of entrepreneurs expect an increase in production also for the second half of the year, 19% are pessimistic and when it comes to orders from abroad, positive expectations are reduced to 22% of the sample.
“Our industry has always shown great resilience, but now variables have a strong depressive effect on growth: from the crazy energy costs to the general rise in world prices, from international tensions due to the war to the rise in rates of interest. The economic situation is so difficult that the Confindustria Study Center has forecast zero GDP growth for 2023 ”, comments the president of Confindustria Emilia-Romagna, Annalisa Sassi. And to the government that has yet to take office, he immediately launches an appeal for “determined, serious and competent action that guarantees stability to the country, starting with the energy issue. We ask the Emilia-Romagna parliamentarians to take to heart the priority issues for our region: industry, employment, work ».
The export corre
The data from the regional Unioncamere studies area confirm that the powerful Emilia-Romagna locomotive, which on international markets has almost doubled the rest of the country in terms of growth rate (+ 84% in the last twenty years, against + 49% in the Italy) and by weight of exports (44% of GDP, with a per capita figure of 16,500 euros against 8,600 on average) and which has accustomed analysts to growth performances well beyond expectations even in difficult years such as those of the earthquake and of the pandemic, is preparing to go from + 3.7% of GDP this year to + 0.2% in 2023. While archiving the first six months with very positive data for production and turnover trends, well beyond + 6% on an annual basis, in all sectors (fashion and mechanics in the lead) and in all sizes of companies.
«Now we are called to manage the emergency with extraordinary actions to combat the increase in prices. However – says the president of Unioncamere Emilia-Romagna, Alberto Zambianchi – trying to look beyond, I believe that foreign trade will once again be the most important factor in determining the competitiveness of the area ». With the compass turned overseas, where American demand, thanks to the strength of the dollar, is driving “made in Emilia” and is amply offsetting the drop in flows to Russia, Japan and China.