Original title: The end-of-year effect of the funding side, the central bank increases the amount of operations to stabilize the market
On December 27, the main indicator D reflecting the situation of inter-bank fundsR007The highest rate rose to 3.2%, which was an increase from the policy benchmark interest rate. On the other hand, the reverse repurchase of exchange treasury bonds, which reflects the liquidity of non-bank institutions, has seen an overall upward trend in interest rates of various maturities.GC007The highest rose to 6%, which is close to the high point since February this year.
However, in response to possible year-end liquidity fluctuations, the central bank has begun to increase the amount of reverse repurchase operations in the open market. On December 27, it achieved a net investment of 40 billion yuan, which means a lot of care. According to industry insiders, the shortage of funds across the year may be related to factors such as the year-end settlement of commercial banks, the adjustment of funds in the new year, and structural reconfiguration. The rise in the reverse repurchase rate of government bonds on exchanges has also brought short-term trading opportunities to investors.
Towards the end of the year, non-bank funds are obviously tight. On December 27, reverse repurchase of treasury bonds in the Shanghai stock marketGC001The highest report was 3.78%, and the highest report of GC007 was 6%.GC014The highest reported 4.1%; while the Shenzhen stock market government bond reverse repurchaseR-001The highest reported 3.755%,R-007Up to 6%,R-014The highest reported 4.12%.
On December 27, the central bank announced that in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the year, a 50 billion 7-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out by way of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate was 2.20%. Public data shows that yesterday, 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, so a net investment of 40 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the inter-bank market, DR007 rose to 3.2%, which is higher than the policy interest rate. As of the close, DR007 rose 51.16bp to 2.4108%. “Last Friday, DR014The upward trend has not stopped, rising to a high of 3.59%, which is much higher than the policy benchmark interest rate of 2.35%, which reflects the obvious shortage of funds for the new year. “Ding Xiaofeng, chief fixed income analyst at Huaxin Securities, said.
In Ding Xiaofeng’s view, the main reasons for the shortage of funds during the new year are as follows: First, commercial banks are facing year-end calculations, and there is a greater demand for funds to be withdrawn from circulation. Second, since November, the central bank has intensified its counter-cyclical adjustment efforts and implemented a RRR cut and a slight drop in LPR. However, nearing the end of the year, banks may make surprise loans. At the same time, bank asset under-allocation is serious, and there are situations such as multi-year fund adjustments. Various factors promote the situation of inter-bank funding shortages.
Most market participants believe that the central bank’s heart of maintaining stability will remain unchanged and will carry out short-term increase operations, superimposing fiscal investment at the end of the year, and the funds will most likely remain stable after the new year.
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