Original title: Fed rate hike expectations may boost the dollar,gold priceAgitated to no avail, fell sharply
Market review:
International gold closed down sharply on Monday (August 15), with the opening price of $1,801.47/oz, the highest price of $1,802.22/oz, the lowest price of $1,772.80/oz, and the closing price of $1,780.60/oz.
Message side:
The U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index released on Monday recorded -31.3, lower than market expectations of 5.5, and the previous value was 11.1.
It was a big surprise for the region’s index, commentary said. The Fed wants economic growth to slow, and by doing so, wants to slow inflation, but it doesn’t want the economy to decline sharply. This is the lowest value since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. That number is in stark contrast to the Michigan survey, which showed a slight increase. Both surveys are about current economic views, one consumer view and the other business view.
The U.S. NAHB housing market index released on Monday recorded a reading of 49, lower than market expectations of 55, and the previous value of 55.
Builder confidence fell for the eighth straight month in August, the commentary said, as rising interest rates, persistent supply chain issues and high home prices continued to exacerbate housing affordability challenges. In another sign that the declining housing market has failed to bottom out, the NAHB housing market index fell 6 points to 49 in August, the first time since May 2020 that the NAHB housing market index fell below a key profit-loss level, according to figures released today. Balance indicator 50. Continued growth in construction costs and high mortgage rates continue to undermine confidence in single-family home builders.
Jerry Konter, chairman of NAHB, said in a disturbing sign that consumers are now on the sidelines due to rising housing costs, our builder survey showed buyer traffic numbers of 32 in August, which is in addition to the first outbreak of 2020. This is the lowest level since April 2014 outside the spring of this year. Tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and rising construction costs contributed to the recession in the housing market. Total single-family starts are set to decline in 2022, the first decline since 2011. However, with inflation showing signs of nearing a peak and long-term interest rates stabilizing somewhat, this should provide some stability on the demand side of the market in the coming months.
The analysis said that the strong message from Fed officials indicated that the Fed is unlikely to shift to a more dovish policy stance until there is strong evidence that inflation pressures are fading. The bulls are reluctant to take on new large long-term exposures, and the continued price rise lacks the necessary support. In fact, gold’s rally appears to be reversed as soon as the possibility of higher rates than market expectations emerges.
The position of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, decreased by 2.03 tons from the previous day, and the current position was 993.94 tons.
CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points by September is 61.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 38.5%; the probability of accumulative rate hikes by 75 basis points by November is 26.5%, and the cumulative rate hikes are 26.5%. The probability of 100 basis points is 51.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 125 basis points is 21.9%.
Jinrong China focuses on today
09:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting;
14:00 UK June three-month ILO unemployment rate;
14:00 UK July unemployment rate;
14:00 The number of unemployment claims in the UK in July;
17:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in August;
17:00 The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index of the Eurozone in August;
17:00 Euro zone trade account after June seasonal adjustment;
20:30 Canada July CPI monthly rate;
20:30 The total number of new housing starts in the United States in July is annualized;
20:30 The total number of construction permits in the United States in July;
21:15 The monthly rate of industrial production in the United States in July.
During the period before and after the announcement of important market numbers or major news events, the financial market is highly volatile. Investors can grasp the latest market conditions in real time and obtain timely market analysis through the Jinrong China Precious Metals Investment Platform.
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