Summary
[The fundamentals have not changed! Why did A shares adjust continuously at the beginning of the year? Peripheral risk events inhibit funds are expected to remain abundant]Market participants believe that the sharp drop in A shares is mainly due to the inhibition of risk appetite by peripheral risk events, and will not interfere with the fundamental expectations of A shares. In the medium and long term, my country’s economy is stable. The positive trend in the middle has not changed, the macro policy is stable and positive, the capital is expected to remain abundant, the reform of the capital market continues to advance, and the capital market is expected to achieve progress while maintaining stability. (Broker China)
On January 25, A-shares fluctuated downward, the three major indexes fell by more than 2%, and the ChiNext fell below the 3,000-point mark.
Overall, the FedcurrencyA shares fell due to policy disturbances and other influences. As of the close,Shanghai IndexIt fell 2.58% to 3433.06 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83% to 13683.89 points; the Genesis Index fell 2.67% to 2974.96 points.
Market participants believe that the sharp drop in A-shares was mainly suppressed by the risk appetite of external risk events, and would not interfere with the fundamental expectations of A-shares. In a stable and positive manner, funds are expected to remain abundant, capital market reforms continue to advance, and capital markets are expected to achieve progress while maintaining stability.
Fundamentals have not changed
Guohai SecuritiesChief Economist Chen Hongbin pointed out that the recent decline in A-shares is mainly affected by external factors. First, the fluctuations in the external market caused by geopolitical factors. With the easing of geopolitical factors, the emotional panic in the market will be eased. Second, the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations , For the Chinese market, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the current foreign exchange market, the strong appreciation of the RMB has offset the expectation that the US dollar may raise interest rates in the next step. Foreign investors continue to be optimistic about the Chinese market. Concerns about high-quality economic development. In fact, in the first quarter of this year, China’s economy has stabilized significantly, monetary policy has continued to be loose, and fiscal policy has stabilized. It is expected that China’s economy will gradually enter a strong channel in the second and third quarters; It has exacerbated the market’s panic. In fact, China’s epidemic control is at the leading level in the world.
Overall, the current internal and external environment is more complex and severe, but my country’s economy has remained stable and sound in the long run. The capital market is undergoing more positive structural changes. The face did not change.
Shenwan HongyuanThe strategy team also believes that although a short-term oversold rebound may occur at any time, patience is still required for the medium-term market recovery.
First, the latest 2021 China economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2021, ChinaGDP(GDP) was 114367 billion yuan, breaking the 110 trillion yuan mark for the first time, and the total economic volume exceeded one trillion yuan for two consecutive years; the GDP growth rate was 8.1%, much higher than the 6% target set by the government at the beginning of the year. Looking forward to 2022, 2022 will be the year when my country’s economy gradually returns to normal operation. my country’s economy will continue to recover and develop. The factors that keep the economy operating within a reasonable range have not changed, and the conditions for supporting high-quality development have not changed. The economy is expected to achieve steady progress.
Second, the macro policy is expected to be stable and positive. The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2021 clearly pointed out that it is necessary to focus on stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, and speed up the progress of expenditure. In terms of fiscal policy, the new 1.46 trillion special debt quota for 2022 has been issued in advance, and the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction is expected to be no less than 1 trillion yuan for the whole year.In terms of monetary policy, the central bank lowered the market quotation for 1-year loans on December 20 after the RRR cut on December 15, 2021.interest rate(LPR)interest rate5 basis points, with further reductions in Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) and open market inversion on January 17, 2022repoThe winning bid rate for the operation is 10 basis points. In terms of industrial policy, a series of policy plans focusing on high-quality development, such as dual carbon and digital economy, have been successively introduced to continue to promote economic transformation and upgrading.
Third, market funds are expected to remain abundant.Under the background of real estate control policies, residents’ savings funds will continue to be raised through public offeringsfundwait for the channel to enter the market,Haitong SecuritiesExpected public offering in 2022net inflow850 billion yuan.In addition, overseasCash flowIn the short term, it may be slowed down by the Fed raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, but it will continue to flow in in the long run.Industrial SecuritiesIt is estimated that in 2022, the inflow of foreign capital will be 320 billion yuan.
Fourth, capital market reform continued to advance. At the 2022 system work conference of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it was emphasized that the comprehensive deepening of capital market reform should be advanced in depth, and stability should be the top priority to effectively maintain the stable and healthy development of the capital market. Strengthen macro research and judgment and policy coordination, and improve the accountability system for risk prevention, early warning, and disposal. Steadily promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and promote the overall balance and coordinated development of investment and financing. Improve the capital market expectation guidance mechanism to create a favorable environment for the smooth operation of the market.
Fifth, the overall market valuation is at a reasonable level. Among the 31 first-level industries of Shenwan, 19 of them currently have dynamic price-earnings ratios below the historical 50% level.
performancePre-listed companies increase, these industriesnet profitforward
The A-share market has fallen into continuous adjustment, and some voices in the market are worried that the annual report performance of listed companies in 2021 will be less than expected. In fact, such concerns are unnecessary.
According to the data, as of January 25, 2022, a total of 563 companies in Shenzhen have disclosed their 2021 performance forecasts. Among them, 492 companies are expected to make profits, accounting for 87% of the number of companies that disclose performance forecasts. 430 companies have pre-increased their performance, accounting for more than 70%. 58 companies turned around. It is expected to realize an average net profit of 404 million to 471 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61% to 87% in 2020.
One is the net profit attributable to the parent. Among the 563 Shenzhen-listed companies mentioned above, 112 companies are expected to have a net profit of more than 500 million yuan; 54 companies are expected to have a net profit of more than 1 billion yuan; 6 companies are expected to have a net profit of more than 5 billion yuan.BOE A、Zhifei Biological、Huafeng ChemicalIt is expected to achieve the highest net profit in 2021, with net profit expected to exceed 25.7 billion yuan, 9.9 billion yuan and 7.85 billion yuan respectively.
The second is the increase in net profit attributable to the parent. Among the above-mentioned 563 Shenzhen-listed companies, 181 companies are expected to increase their net profit by more than 100% year-on-year in 2021; 45 companies are expected to exceed 300%; 13 companies are expected to exceed 1000%.Yuanxing Energy、Skyline Shares、Yida sharesIt is estimated that the net profit growth in 2021 will be the highest, and the net profit growth is expected to be greater than 7,022%, 6,593%, and 3,191%, respectively.
The third is industry characteristics. steel, mining, building materials,non-ferrous metals, The average net profit scale of the electronics industry ranks first, and the average net profit growth of non-banking finance, computer, real estate, electrical equipment, and chemical industries ranks first. Among the above 563 Shenzhen-listed companies, 89 belong to the chemical industry, and the average net profit is expected to exceed 652 million yuan, and the average increase in net profit is expected to be greater than 254.21%; 72 belong to the machinery and equipment industry, and the average net profit is expected to be realized. The amount exceeded 267 million yuan, and the average increase in net profit is expected to be greater than 54.96%.
From a specific analysis, the Shenzhen market ecology has undergone positive changes.
First, the direct financing function was fully utilized, and the market vitality was continuously released. Benefiting from the implementation and stable operation of reform measures such as the reform of the ChiNext Board and the pilot registration system, and the merger of the main board and the small and medium-sized board, the vitality of the Shenzhen refinancing market continued to be released, and on the basis of achieving relatively high growth in 2020, it continued to maintain a stable growth trend . In 2021, Shenzhen-listed companies implemented a total of 371 refinancing orders, a year-on-year increase of 42.69%, with a total financing amount of 529.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.40%. Shenzhen-listed companies continued to support technological innovation and industrial upgrading through various means of refinancing. The refinancing amount of manufacturing enterprises reached 355.18 billion yuan, accounting for 67.02% of the total. Small and medium market value companies in Shenzhen fully enjoy the convenience of direct financing in the capital market. Nearly a quarter of the companies that have completed refinancing have a market value of less than 5 billion yuan, effectively helping to alleviate the problem of difficult and expensive financing for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Second, equity incentives and employee stock ownership plans stimulate innovation and development momentum and promote high-quality development. Equity incentives and employee stock ownership plans are important benefit-sharing mechanisms for listed companies, which promote the deep binding of innovative talents and company development, effectively enhance employee cohesion and enhance company competitiveness. In 2021, Shenzhen-listed companies launched a total of 419 equity incentive plans, involving 6,317,746,200 shares; launched 141 employee stock ownership plans, involving a total capital of 20.42 billion yuan and involving 1,856,495,000 shares.According to statistics, companies that implement equity incentives in Shenzhen in 2020, after excluding individual companies, will be in the first three quarters of 2020 and 2021.Operating incomeThe year-on-year growth rates were 12.17% and 38.75% respectively, and the net profit increased by 44.79% and 26.75% year-on-year respectively. The revenue scale and profitability were both higher than the average level of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, showing that equity incentives can effectively tap the company’s development potential.
(Article Source:brokerageChina)
(Original title: The fundamentals have not changed! Why did A shares adjust continuously at the beginning of the year? External risk events are suppressed, and funds are expected to remain abundant)
(Editor in charge: 65)