Home » The growth rate of industrial added value has turned positive, and the economic operation has stabilized and rebounded | Manufacturing | Epidemic_Sina Technology_Sina.com

The growth rate of industrial added value has turned positive, and the economic operation has stabilized and rebounded | Manufacturing | Epidemic_Sina Technology_Sina.com

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Our reporter Tan Zhijuan reported in Beijing

Hao Cheng’s economic performance showed a recovery momentum in May, and the main indicators showed marginal improvement. On June 15, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May, the added value of industries above designated size in the country increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while in April it fell by 2.9%; from January to May, the national fixed asset investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year. In April, it increased by 6.8%; in May, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 6.7% year-on-year, and the decline was 4.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

In this regard, the interviewed economic experts told the reporter of “China Business News” that with the overall improvement of the epidemic prevention situation and the implementation of a package of measures to stabilize the economy, my country’s main macroeconomic indicators showed marginal improvement in May, and the overall national economic operation showed recovery. The trend is positive, and it is expected that the effect of the policy of stabilizing growth will further show in the future, and the main macro data in June will further pick up. However, the service industry and consumption are still weak, and further policies to stabilize growth need to be implemented.

The official website of the National Bureau of Statistics also said that in May, various regions and departments efficiently coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and focused on stabilizing the macroeconomic market. The domestic epidemic prevention and control situation has generally improved, production demand has gradually recovered, and employment and prices have generally been stable. , the main indicators have improved marginally, and the national economy has shown a recovery momentum.

Marginal improvement in key indicators

The reporter noticed that all major economic indicators showed marginal improvement in May. First, the growth rate of industrial added value turned positive, slightly exceeding market expectations. Data show that in May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while in April it fell by 2.9%; it increased by 5.61% month-on-month, which statistics show that this is the highest level since April 2020.

In this regard, Wang Jingwen, director of the Macro Research Center of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, told a reporter from China Business News: “The recovery of the manufacturing industry has become the main driving force. Among the three major categories, the manufacturing industry increased by 0.1% year-on-year, which was significantly better than last month’s – 4.6%, the accelerated process of resumption of work and production and the rebound in export growth have become the main driving factors.”

Looking forward to the future, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, told reporters: “Because of the complete domestic industrial system, complete industrial chain, and perfect infrastructure, the industrial manufacturing foundation is relatively good. The supply chain is smooth; coupled with the stable supply and price of energy commodities and financing support measures, it is expected that the production of the industrial sector will return to normal at a faster pace.”

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Second, investment maintained steady growth. Data show that from January to May, fixed asset investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. From the perspective of the industry, investment has maintained steady growth, which has supported steady economic growth.

Zhou Maohua believes: “The slowdown in fixed investment in May was mainly affected by the decline in real estate investment and the high base last year. On the whole, domestic efforts to help enterprises in bailouts and effective investment have been reasonably increased, and the effects are showing. The momentum of infrastructure investment has increased, and manufacturing investment has continued to Maintain a relatively high prosperity, promote the expansion of fixed asset investment, and continue to play a key role in stabilizing growth. However, at present, the real estate market continues to be in the recovery stage, and the investment performance of real estate enterprises is not satisfactory, which has become a drag on investment.”

The reporter also noted that both manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment performed strongly.

In terms of infrastructure investment, infrastructure investment from January to May increased by 6.7% year-on-year, higher than the 6.5% in January-April, which was better than market expectations; the year-on-year growth rate in a single month rose to 7.2% from 3.0% in the previous month.

Wang Jingwen believes that since May, the policy has placed stable growth in a more prominent position, requiring the accelerated issuance and use of special bonds, the sources of infrastructure funds have been supplemented, and the role of infrastructure investment as a stabilizer for investment has been further brought into play.

In terms of manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment from January to May increased by 10.6% year-on-year, lower than the 12.2% in January to April, basically in line with expectations. However, the year-on-year growth rate in a single month rose slightly from 6.4% in the previous month to 7.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

Wang Jingwen told reporters: “The marginal rebound in the growth rate of manufacturing investment is due to the marginal improvement in terminal demand on the one hand, especially the resilience of exports and the steady investment in infrastructure, which has positively stimulated investment in manufacturing; on the other hand, due to the epidemic’s impact on logistics Disturbances in the supply chain and the supply chain have weakened, the growth of raw materials has slowed down, and the cost impact faced by enterprises has been relatively reduced. In addition, the policy continues to guide the financial industry to increase support for the manufacturing industry, and the level of loan interest rates continues to decline, which is also conducive to the growth of manufacturing investment. back up.”

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Looking ahead, Zhou Maohua believes that the momentum of domestic fixed investment is expected to gradually increase. Due to the reasonable increase in effective investment in China, the active promotion of the use of special debt funds, coupled with the support of energy commodity supply and stable prices and supporting policy support for key project financing, domestic infrastructure investment will maintain a rapid growth rate; Policies continue to help investment in the manufacturing industry to maintain expansion; and, as the impact of the domestic epidemic weakens and the economy recovers, local governments have stepped up measures to stabilize the property market, and confidence in the real estate market is gradually recovering. .

Again, the decline in consumption narrowed. Data show that in May, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 6.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the previous month.

Dongfang Jincheng believes that the impact of the epidemic has weakened in May, and the decline in social zero has narrowed; however, due to local epidemic disturbances and residents’ cautious consumption psychology, consumption recovery has been slow.

From a trend perspective, Zhou Maohua believes that domestic consumption will gradually pick up. Because in Zhou Maohua’s view, the overall situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control has improved, and life has accelerated to return to normal; domestic employment has returned to normal, and savings have remained high, providing a solid foundation for consumer spending; domestic commodity consumption support policies have been introduced, and many provinces have introduced consumer spending. Vouchers and other active local consumer markets.

Economic stabilization measures need to be implemented in the future

In terms of policy, Zhou Maohua believes that this needs to be done in three aspects: first, to implement the detailed policies and measures that have been introduced to help enterprises and stabilize growth, so as to accelerate the release of policy dividends; the second is to improve the efficiency of epidemic prevention in China and create a plan for the accelerated recovery of consumption. A good atmosphere and environment; the third is to implement the policies that have been issued to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, and support the high-quality development of foreign trade.

“The overall monetary policy will remain loose, and the monetary environment will continue to provide strong support for economic recovery; domestically, through ‘total + structure + reform’, while ensuring moderate currency growth and market players are not short of money, optimize credit and Financing structure, increase support for weak links, key and emerging areas of the real economy, and improve the quality and efficiency of policies.” Zhou Maohua said.

Wang Jingwen also said that from the data in May, with the support of various policies, the economy is slowly coming out of the trough, and the “demand contraction” and “supply shock” in the “triple pressure” have improved, but “expectations have weakened” It needs to be further improved. If we want to ensure reasonable economic growth in the second quarter and stabilize the economic market, we should also strengthen our efforts from the perspective of stabilizing expectations.

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Therefore, Wang Jingwen suggested that the impact of the epidemic on economic operation should be reduced as much as possible; at the same time, it is necessary to promote the refinement and implementation of economic stabilization policies to further release policy effects. In addition, we must focus on stabilizing the confidence of foreign investment and private enterprises.

In Wang Jingwen’s view, foreign capital and private enterprises are the most dynamic parts of the economy, and they are also the most sensitive to policy changes and are most prone to expected fluctuations, so they need special attention.

In terms of foreign investment, the State Council executive meeting held on June 8 deployed measures to further stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, and improve the level of opening up.

On the whole, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the epidemic prevention situation has generally improved recently, and restrictions on economic activities have weakened. With the implementation of a package of measures to stabilize the economy, the real economy has also shown signs of improvement. However, it should also be noted that under the influence of the continuous evolution of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the situation in Ukraine, and the tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the uncertainty of the global economic development prospects has increased. It is still weak, and the employment pressure is relatively high.

Therefore, Wen Bin pointed out that in the next stage, it is necessary to implement a package of measures to stabilize the economy, continue to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, intensify efforts to boost domestic demand, do a good job in bailouts for difficult areas, industries and people, and increase employment opportunities. The strength of support will enable market players to reverse their expectations as soon as possible, enhance confidence, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.

An article on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics said that in the next stage, we will efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increase macroeconomic policy adjustment, fully promote the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth, and focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market. The national economy continued to recover.


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