Original title: The growth rate of national real estate development investment slowed for 7 consecutive months and fell to single digits for the first time in the year Source: Securities Daily
The cooling of the real estate market is further confirmed by official data. On October 18, the latest data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in the first three quarters, the national real estate development investment increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.2%, which was a decrease of 0.5% from January to August; the national commercial housing sales area was 130,332 10,000 square meters, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and an average increase of 4.6% in two years, down 1.3 percentage points from January to August.
Judging from the indicator of national real estate development investment alone, the growth rate has continued to shrink since it hit the highest point of the year in February this year. So far, the indicator has not only fallen to single digits for the first time in the year, but has also narrowed for 7 consecutive months.
Lu Qilin, research director of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the indicator base was low in the first half of last year. Since then, as the epidemic has been effectively controlled, the resumption of work and production has accelerated. It also enabled the national real estate development investment to quickly recover and return to normal levels. On the whole, this will have a certain impact on the slowdown of the national real estate development investment growth rate in the second half of this year. The intensive promulgation of the national real estate market regulation and control policies during the year also affected the growth rate of development and investment of real estate enterprises. Especially from the growth rate of newly started area of real estate development enterprises, it further reflects the relative pessimism of developers on the future expectations of the real estate market.
The data shows that in the first three quarters, the newly started area of housing was 1,529.4 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. Among them, the newly-started residential area was 1,133.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. In addition, the area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises was 13.73 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%.
Chen Wenjing, deputy research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, analyzed to a reporter from the Securities Daily that from the perspective of the supply side, affected by the “two centralized” land supply policy in key cities, the transaction volume of the national land market continued to decline in the first three quarters. To a certain extent, it has slowed down the speed of new housing starts across the country. However, in the short term, with the recent completion of the second batch of “two-centralized” land supply in some key cities, it is expected that the new housing area and real estate development investment across the country are expected to improve.
Finally, from the sales side, the data shows that although the sales area and sales of commercial housing in the first three quarters have increased year-on-year, the growth rate has also continued to shrink.
Chen Wenjing said that since the end of September, the central government has continuously released stability signals to guide financial institutions to accelerate the implementation of the “two maintenance” to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The marginal improvement of bank credit is expected to increase. It is expected that the policy fine-tuning in some cities is expected to continue in the short term. , Cities with greater pressure to adjust the real estate market are expected to follow up and introduce relevant policies to stabilize the property market in order to stabilize market expectations. But on the whole, as the real estate market is expected to become more rational, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the national commercial housing sales in the fourth quarter may continue to decline.
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