Home » The IMF improves growth estimates, but the Covid variants can cost 4.5 trillion GDP

The IMF improves growth estimates, but the Covid variants can cost 4.5 trillion GDP

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MILANO – The International Monetary Fund raises growth estimates but warns against the risk of Covid variants: according to chief economist Gita Gopinath “if new, very contagious variants emerge, the recovery could derail and this could weigh on global GDP for 4.5 trillion dollars by 2025 “.

The Monetary Fund updated its outlook and raised its growth estimates for the globe, Italy and the Eurozone. In the case of Italy, to begin with, after the contraction of 8.9% in 2020, GDP is expected to grow this year by 4.9%, or 0.7 percentage points more than + 4.2% expected in April. In 2022, the Italian economy is expected to grow 4.2%, 0.6 percentage points more than the April forecasts. Italy thus runs more than Germany, whose GDP is expected to grow by 3.6% this year and by 4.1% next.

Generally speaking, the Fund’s document highlights a two-speed world with advanced economies galloping thanks to the availability of vaccines and emerging and developing economies experiencing greater difficulties. In addition to vaccines, the evident divergence between advanced and emerging economies is also linked to the public stimuli put in place. Among the engines of the world are the United States, which is running thanks to the massive aid deployed (the world‘s leading economy is seen expanding by 7% this year, making a great contribution to the + 6% expected for the globe as a whole). But “France, Italy, Germany and Spain” are also accelerating, observes the Fund, noting that the slowdown in Asia is weighing on the emerging economies.

“We estimate that the pandemic has reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8% compared to the pre-pandemic trends for 2020-2022. For emerging and developing economies, the annual per capita loss is 6.3. % “, says Gopinath, underlining how almost” 40% of the population in advanced economies is fully vaccinated compared to 11% in emerging economies “and 1% in low-income ones.

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