A few days ago, the “festive interest rate package” released by the central bank is gradually landing.
In the past two weeks, the provident fund loan interest rates in Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xi’an, Ningbo, Dongguan, Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Nanning, Shijiazhuang, Jiaxing, Huzhou and other hot cities have been successively lowered.
For example, on October 10, the Foshan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on lowering the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan. From October 1, 2022, the loan interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund will be lowered by 0.15 percentage points, the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate of less than 5 years (including 5 years) will be lowered from 2.75% to 2.6%, and the personal housing provident fund of more than 5 years The lending rate was lowered from 3.25% to 3.1%.
Not just provident funds. In recent days, commercial loans in many cities have also declined one after another, and even the first home interest rate has “broken 4”. According to the latest LPR data, the minimum first-home loan interest rate previously implemented in various places is 4.1%.
Recently, Jining, Qingyuan, Zhanjiang, Wuhan and other places have successively released relevant information on interest rate adjustment, and the commercial loan interest rate in many places has “broken 4”. For example, the lowest interest rate in Qingyuan can reach 3.7%.
After a series of policy “combination punches”, what is the effect of policy promotion? The 21st Century Business Herald surveyed some cities in Shaanxi and interviewed a number of industry experts and home buyers. At present, the reduction of the provident fund interest rate has limited impact on the local property market, and buyers have more specific requirements for location, room type and cost-effectiveness.
The impact of the cut in the provident fund interest rate is limited
On September 29, the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice deciding to adjust the differentiated housing credit policy in stages. Eligible city governments can decide on their own to maintain, lower or cancel the lower limit of the local new first-home loan interest rate by the end of 2022.
Just one day later, the People’s Bank of China announced that starting from October 1, 2022, the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan will be lowered by 0.15 percentage points, and the interest rates of less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. %. The second set of personal housing provident fund loan interest rate policy remains unchanged.
Subsequently, many home buyers began to wait for the relevant local policies to be implemented.
Zhang Yang and his girlfriend are both from Shanxi and came to work in Xi’an together after graduation. In the past year, in order to buy a wedding house, the young couple traveled all over the six districts of Xi’an City, and failed to win the number three times, and finally set their target on a new residential project that is about to open in the city’s East Second Ring Road.
“Now is the time for the ‘race’ between projects and policies. The new house I want to buy is expected to open in the second half of the month. Although the policy has been released, the project sales report has not yet received an implementation notice.” Zhang Yang told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald.
On October 11, Xi’an City released the news that the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan was lowered. It is reported that from October 1, 2022, Xi’an will reduce the loan interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund by 0.15 percentage points, and the interest rates of less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. The second set of personal housing provident fund loan interest rate policy remains unchanged.
Xi’an is not an isolated case. In fact, within half a month, Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan, Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Nanning, Shijiazhuang, Tianshui, Jilin, Chengdu, Luzhou, Xiangyang, Yichang, Huangshi, Jingzhou, Suizhou, Enshi, Xiantao, Tianmen, Nanchang, Harbin, Hefei, Ma’anshan and the whole province of Hainan have successively released relevant information on interest rate adjustments.
For example, the website of the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center shows that the housing provident fund loan interest rate for the first home in Beijing has been reduced by 0.15 percentage points.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, “The new policies of the central bank’s provident fund policy have been actively implemented in various places, and they have issued documents one after another, but they are basically implementing the central bank’s policies without compromise, and the adjustments are in line with expectations.”
Judging from the situation in Xi’an, some real estate companies believe that the reduction of provident fund loans has not significantly stimulated the real estate market.
“The lowering of the provident fund interest rate will stimulate the market to a certain extent, but the intensity is very limited.” A person from a housing company told reporters.
For example, Xi’an, for example, currently has a minimum down payment of 20% for the first set of pure provident fund loans in Xi’an, but the maximum loan amount for single-payment employees does not exceed 650,000, and the maximum for double-payment employees does not exceed 850,000. From the perspective of products on the market, the unit price of real estate in the sixth district of the city is often 16,000+, and the housing area basically starts from 100 square meters. In contrast, the adjustment of the provident fund interest rate has less impact and will basically not be a consideration for home buyers.
The above-mentioned real estate company people also mentioned that even after the policy is introduced, it may not be possible for all real estate projects to be implemented. At present, in the case that the market is not hot, most real estate still does not accept portfolio loans. If you simply use the provident fund loan, it is obviously not enough to pay the total amount of the house.
Zhang Yang also expressed the same view. “It is unrealistic to buy a house with a pure provident fund loan, and a portfolio loan may not be acceptable. Even if it is accepted, the monthly payment will only be reduced by dozens of yuan, which can be ignored. In contrast, the commercial loan interest rate is the key.”
Wang Shengxue, member of the Shaanxi Provincial Final Advisory Committee and chairman of the Provincial Real Estate Association, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: “The provident fund should be an important regulatory direction. Interest rate adjustment is only one way, and we should pay more attention to how to use the large pool of ‘ provident fund’. resources to further relax and stimulate the market.”
In addition, in order to further stabilize the property market and reduce the pressure on those who have already purchased houses, many places including Hanzhong in Shaanxi, Pu’er in Yunnan, Fangchenggang in Guangxi, Gannan Prefecture in Gansu and other places have successively issued the policy of “commercial-to-public” housing loans (that is, the conversion of already processed commercial housing loans into Provident fund loan).
According to the “Hanzhong Release”, the Policy and Regulations Section of the Hanzhong Housing Provident Fund Management Center stated that the current commercial loan interest rate is generally around 4.5%, and the provident fund loan is currently implementing the annual interest rate of 2.75% for the first home within 5 years and 3.25 for the first home after 5 years. %, the preferential policy of 10% for the second suite is relatively low.
On October 11, Cao Yanping, Secretary of the Party Group and Director of the Qingdao Housing Provident Fund Management Center, told the media that the “business-to-business” business is still in the process of being actively promoted, and the relevant policies are planned to be officially launched before the end of the year.
In the current economic environment, the introduction of policies can effectively reduce the repayment pressure of employees and the cost of housing purchases.
Commercial loan interest rates further “break the ice”
Compared with the reduction of the provident fund interest rate, the reduction of the commercial loan interest rate has a larger impact.
“We haven’t received the notice yet, but many cities have indeed lowered the price. Jining, for example, should have implemented 3.95%.” The staff of the housing loan department of a branch of China Construction Bank in Xi’an told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
In fact, according to a notice issued on September 29, cities in the country that meet the first set of commercial loan interest rates independently determined include Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Harbin, Wuhan, Guiyang, Kunming, Lanzhou, Dalian, Qinhuangdao, Baotou, Wenzhou, Anqing, and Quanzhou. There are 23 other cities, mainly in second- or third- and fourth-tier cities.
Under the premise that the property market continues to be cold, Jining, Wuhan, Qingyuan, Jiangmen, etc. have announced the reduction of commercial loan interest rates in the past half month, while Wuhan, Qingyuan, Jiangmen and other cities have lowered or cancelled the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, and many real estate commercial loan interest rates Rarely breaks “4”.
Specifically, Wuhan is the first provincial capital city to implement this policy. The lower limit of the first home loan interest rate has been adjusted from LPR-20BP to LPR-40BP. Currently, some banks in Wuhan can implement the first home loan interest rate of 3.9%. Qingyuan City has adjusted the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate from LPR-20BP to LPR-60BP, and the mortgage interest rate is as low as 3.7%, reaching a record low.
CITIC Securities pointed out that considering the current net interest margin of commercial banks and the historical pricing level of mortgage loans, the pricing of mortgage loans in some regions will drop to about 3.8%.
“The ‘breaking 4’ interest rate in the fourth quarter will be a new highlight of the real estate policy.” Yan Yuejin said to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, “This regulation has expanded the authority of local governments in terms of whether to relax and how to relax, and it is very important to create a loose mortgage interest rate. The environment has a positive effect. At the same time, it should be noted that some cities also allow individual second-home transactions to be recognized as the first home, and they can also enjoy such preferential policies.”
Yan Yuejin believes that this interest rate adjustment means that the mortgage interest rate has entered the era of “breaking 4”, which has a very strong signal significance and has a positive impact on the boost of property market transactions in the fourth quarter.
It is worth mentioning that the central level has adjusted the lower limit of mortgage interest rates twice this year. In May, the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced to lower the interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans for the first home, and adjusted the lower limit from LPR of not less than the corresponding term to LPR-20BP. Reduce the cost of housing for residents.
Wang Shengxue believes that for second- and third-tier cities and even fourth-tier cities, under the current downturn in the market, it is indeed necessary to adjust the commercial loan interest rate to further stabilize the market. For first- and second-tier cities with more complex markets, in addition to interest rate adjustments, more policy combinations are still needed to assist.
Purchasing power is concentrated on high-quality real estate
How will the market react after a series of policy “combinations”? What is the current state of home purchase transactions?
Take Xi’an as an example. At present, only the first use of provident fund loans can enjoy the latest interest rate. If the first set is a commercial loan, the second set of provident fund loans can only be executed at the interest rate of 3.1%. At the same time, most banks can achieve 4.1% for the first set of commercial loans for new houses; on the basis of 4.3% for the second set, 60-70BP is generally superimposed, and the real interest rate is around 4.9%-5.0%.
In contrast, the interest rate of the first set of commercial loans in Xi’an is higher than that of most cities, and the requirements for the second set of loans are stricter.
“The Xi’an market is showing a situation of ‘ice and fire’.” An industry insider analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, “For example, some new houses in the six districts of the city are not only expensive but also shaken by thousands of people. “
Taking the publicity data of new houses in September as an example, Country Garden Genting is 23,017 yuan/square meter, and 920 have passed the registration and verification; Yujin City is 16,862 yuan/square meter, and 1,412 have passed the registration and verification; Vanke Purey is 17,091 yuan/square meter, and the registration and verification have passed. 1350; Greentown National Games Village 16871 yuan / square meter, 1397 registered and verified.
In contrast to the above-mentioned real estate registration situation, some of the real estates in the six districts of Xi’an City only have more than ten or even dozens of registration verifications. Behind this, it is mainly related to the poor environment in the nearby area, the relatively remote location, and the lack of supporting facilities.
“At present, home buyers are more critical, and they can choose high-quality real estate with high cost performance. In fact, Xi’an does not lack purchasing power. As long as the supply of high-quality products can keep up, the purchasing power can also support it.” The above-mentioned industry insiders told reporters, ” Compared to before, homebuyers are now less anxious, more professional and smarter.”
“I have contacted a lot of homebuyers who are in a similar situation to me. The down payment is ready, but many new houses are either large in size or poor in location, and the apartment type and location are suitable. If you want to buy them, you can’t buy them.” Zhang Yang said, “And if With more favorable space and favorable policies, we can consider larger and better-quality units.”
Wang Shengxue believes that for provincial capital cities such as Xi’an, policies such as restrictions on purchases and loans should be adjusted first, so that buyers can fully flow freely in the market. In the next step, we will continue to increase control policies such as interest rates, so as to further stabilize the property market.
(Author: Morning Editor: Chen Jie)
(Editor: Wen Jing)