On Wednesday (December 7), the international gold price fluctuated within a narrow range, less than $7. Investors continued to judge how the Fed would adjust the pace of future interest rate hikes. Downside risks for gold are higher than upside risks ahead of the Fed policy meeting.
At 15:21 Beijing time, spot gold rose 0.09% to $1,772.34 an ounce; the main COMEX gold futures contract rose 0.11% to $1,784.4 an ounce; the U.S. dollar index rose 0.16% to 105.739.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier that it is time to slow down the pace of rate hikes. The market predicts that the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December cutting the interest rate hike to 50 basis points is as high as nearly 80%. The day before the end of the meeting, the US consumer price index (CPI) for November will be released.
But new signals of a potential rebound in inflation weighed on sentiment as U.S. service sector and labor demand showed strength in the economy in November. That raises the risk of the Fed raising interest rates to a peak at its monetary policy meeting next week.
According to surveys, the vast majority of respondents said that from the perspective of monetary policy prospects, there is not much room for the dollar to rise. But growing fears of a U.S. recession should see the dollar stage a strong rebound against most currencies next year, which would revive the greenback’s safe-haven appeal.
Economists at Brown Brothers Harriman Bank believe: “After Powell’s unexpected dovish stance, the dollar may continue to weaken in the short term. But if the US economic data released in the future continues to look firm, the Fed’s dovish tone may begin to unravel. “
Michael Langford, director of corporate consulting firm AirGuide, said: “The main factor affecting gold prices is the movement of the dollar. Next week’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will determine the ultimate direction of this trend. Before the FOMC meeting, gold will be in the next few days. The downside risk outweighs the upside risk for the trading day.”
According to the latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, the open interest in the overnight COMEX gold futures market fell for the third consecutive day, this time by nearly 4,000 lots. Trading volume fell by about 58,300 lots, the third consecutive day of decline. The modest gains in gold prices came amid shrinking open interest and trading volume, suggesting no further gains for the metal in the ultra-short term.