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Hu Yu
Driven by the strong promotion of major financial and other sectors, this week (June 21 to June 25) the Shanghai stock index rose another 3,600 points. The market in the first half of the year is about to come to an end. How will the A-share market be interpreted, and what hot spots are worth paying attention to in the near future?
In the view of the brokerage firm, July will be the transition phase from a quiet period to a resonant upward period in the market, and a rebound pattern is still in place. From the perspective of the allocation direction, the market will switch to the main line of the mid-term report in July, and the company with a reasonable valuation that exceeds the expected mid-term report deserves active deployment.
The market is still in a bull market atmosphere
inCITIC SecuritiesFrom the perspective of the strategy team, July is the transition phase from a quiet period to a resonant upward period, and the market will shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven. First of all, in the second quarter, the increase in institutional funds was limited, and the ebb of gaming funds led to increased structural volatility in the market; secondly, the overall economy continued to maintain a steady recovery trend, and policies are expected to remain stable; in addition, domestic macro liquidity was affected. The overseas influence is limited, the relative attractiveness of equity assets is highlighted under the guidance of multiple policies, and the liquidity of the capital market is still abundant.
Essence Securities’ strategy team believes that in the short term, the market is in a favorable environment, but the room for this round of index to continue to rise may be limited; in the medium and long term, the fundamentals of A-shares in this year’s interim report and the second half of this year are likely to be better than market expectations. The Federal Reserve In the context of significant dovishness and the completion of the domestic economic recovery, the domestic bond market yields have limited upward space, and the overall liquidity environment and risk appetite factors remain positive. Corporate profitability and growth will become the core logic of the next stage of the market.
Haitong SecuritiesThe strategy team pointed out that the current market is still in a bull market atmosphere, corporate profits are expanding, micro funds are still flowing into the market, and market sentiment is still far from the high point. From the perspective of the microstructure, the current market risk appetite is high. As long as the company’s prosperity is good, even if the valuation is high, its stock price still has room to rise.
Guotai JunanThe strategy team believes that with the determination of inflation and credit contraction, the downward risk evaluation will continue to drive the market upward; in addition, the downward risk of risk-free interest rates will become a new force, which will drive the market upward together with risk evaluation. For investors, there is no time to go long now.
West China SecuritiesThe strategy team believes that there may still be more repetitions of overseas epidemics, and liquidity in overseas markets is still expected to remain relatively loose; at the domestic liquidity level, the central bank has recently placed accurate liquidity to stabilize inter-season liquidity pressure; and in the medium and long term, the economic recovery is turning point It has been continuously confirmed that the wide-credit pattern is still expected to be maintained in the second half of the year. The market rebound pattern is still in place, and “equity assets” are still one of the few assets that can be invested in the “allocation shortage” environment.
The open source securities strategy team believes that from the perspective of companies that have disclosed their interim performance forecasts, the current performance growth of many mid-upstream companies has reached historical highs, which may have new indications for long-term profitability repricing. Under the continuous verification of performance, the long-term profitability of cyclical stocks will appear to be extremely cost-effective in the entire market.
Pay attention to the main line of the mid-year report
The CITIC Securities strategy team believes that in July, the market will switch from the theme of structural overheating to the main line of mid-year reports. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to continue to focus on the four main lines of high-prosperity growth in new energy, autonomous control of technology, national defense and security, and intelligent manufacturing. , Market structural fluctuations will bring new entry opportunities.
Essence Securities’ strategy team recommends that, in industry configuration, focus on companies with reasonable valuations and mid-term reports that exceed expectations, and moderately grasp the trading opportunities of cyclical stocks. Focus on the directions: First, the mid-term reports exceed expectations under the economic recovery, such as chemical industry, coal, banking, etc. ; The second is the core track that can continue to exceed expectations, such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and some pharmaceutical companies; the third is the new growth track, such as artificial intelligence, smart cars, new materials, military, Xinchuang network security, etc.
The strategy team of Haitong Securities believes that in the second half of the year, we can only win by keeping upright. “Shouzheng” means to deploy high-quality leaders represented by Mao Index. With the gradual easing of inflationary pressures in the second half of the year, the Mao Index is expected to return to its previous highs, driven by excellent performance and the continued favor of institutional investors; “surprisingly” refers to the high cost performance of medium and large-cap stocks represented by intelligent manufacturing and worthwhile Configuration.
Guotai Junan’s strategy team recommends five main lines: one is brokerages and bank stocks; the other is new energy vehicles, electronics, computers, military, and pharmaceutical sectors that are growing in technology; the third is the accelerated recovery of domestic consumption, emerging consumption, and high-end consumer sectors; the fourth is New opportunities in the cycle under the background of “carbon neutrality”, such as coal, building materials, and steel industries; fifth, midstream manufacturing with easing cost margins, such as home appliances and automobiles.
The strategy team of West China Securities proposes to deploy two main lines: one is to benefit from the compression of high energy-consuming capacity and the interim performance is expected to maintain high growth rates, such as steel, coal, etc.; the second is to comply with the logic of “internal circulation” and benefit from consumption upgrades Industries, such as medicine, new energy vehicles, tax exemption, etc. The thematic investment proposal attaches importance to national policy directions, such as the expansion of the connotation of “carbon neutrality”.
The open source securities strategy team recommends two main lines: one is the cyclical industries such as coal, steel, non-ferrous (copper, aluminum), chemical (soda ash, chemical fiber, titanium dioxide) and petrochemical; the second is the main line of value restoration. It is recommended to pay attention to banks, construction, and real estate. , Aviation, electric power and other industries.
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Editor in charge: Yang Hongbu
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