Global warming and climate alarm are increasingly in the foreground. Now the Center for Studies on Climate Change (CCSC), born from the collaboration between the company Greenway Group Srl, Ecogest SpA, which aims to monitor the impacts of climate change on transport infrastructures, has analyzed future scenarios and predicts economic damage direct for transport infrastructure up to 2 billion in 2050. The recent analysis aims to provide useful information to the infrastructure system linked to resilience issues and proposes project initiatives.
The study recalls that 2015 to 2021 were the seven warmest years on record so far, global ocean heat content from 0 to 700 meters deep was the highest in the world in 2018 to 2022, Arctic sea ice, between 1979-1988 and 2010-2019, it decreased by about 40%, from 1993-2021 there was a rise in global mean sea level of 9 centimeters.
The Mediterranean region is in the crosshairs. In recent decades, the effects of climate change have had an impact on many variables in the Mediterranean basin, the latter being considered a region at risk with a very intense degree of anthropization. The climatic variables subject to variations are temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, salinity and ocean acidification. These trends are strongly evident in the Mediterranean basin, where the average annual temperatures are about 1.54°C higher than the levels recorded between 1860 and 1890, in July of this year 60% of Italy experienced an extreme drought with record heat in Sicily (48.8°C) in August, the surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea are warming (from 1.1°C to 2.1°C, for a stabilization scenario with significant reductions in greenhouse gases), l basin rise will likely be 37-90 cm higher than at the end of the 20th century.
Climate change in Italy
According to the analysis, the Italian peninsula is a special case for the study of regional climate models, due to its complex topography. From the point of view of climate change, the peninsula needs differentiated policies and strategies by area, as well as models and tools capable of understanding the territory and local atmospheric dynamics. Sea level rise, together with water acidification and marine heat waves will inevitably lead to an increase in extreme events, which put at risk not only the planet, but also the proper functioning of society. According to climate projections, there is an increase in heat waves with a sharp increase in fires forecast for 2050, a general increase in the maximum daily precipitation values, even extreme ones, an increase in the frequency of landslides and floods.
What are the risks to infrastructure
According to the study, infrastructure design and maintenance must take climate risk assessment into account, as climate change changes the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Currently, many of the infrastructure problems are linked to projects that are based on regulations that do not take into account the rapid and sudden effects of climate change, which often: damage the road surface, cause damage to bridges and viaducts, as well as cause structural damage, obstructions and roadway flooding.
These extreme events consequently also have an impact from an economic point of view directly linked to the infrastructures. In this context, it should be noted that the greatest increase in direct economic damage is expected for transport infrastructures. Currently, the absolute risk expressed in terms of billions of euros of expected damage per year (EAD) is 0.15 billion, a figure that could rise to over 1.08 and 2.08 billion euros per year over 2020 -2050.
As for damages caused by extreme weather events, 58% of damages are caused by floods, while heat waves and droughts could increase to account for 92% of climate damages by 2050, especially for roads and railways. While river and coastal floods in the future could also represent damage greater than 50%. In the future (period 2041-2070) the roads will also be affected by cold spells and forest fires. As can be seen from the pie chart, strong gusts of wind will have a huge impact on ports and airports, while roads in the future will be above all subject to heat and cold waves, fires and floods, both coastal and river. The drought will especially affect inland navigation characterized mainly by small and medium-sized rivers and streams.
In terms of the distribution of damage on the Italian territory, in the coming decades, in absolute terms, they will probably be more pronounced in the northern and Tyrrhenian regions than in the rest of Italy, due to the greater number of infrastructures. As regards the relative variations, the opposite seems to occur, with the southern regions, in particular Sardinia and Calabria, characterized by a marked increase in climate risk compared to the rest of Italy and associated to a greater extent with the increase in drought in these regions .