Home » The listing volume exceeds 190,000 sets!After 2 months of heat, Chongqing’s second-hand housing market has cooled down again

The listing volume exceeds 190,000 sets!After 2 months of heat, Chongqing’s second-hand housing market has cooled down again

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(Original title: Behind the rebound of second-hand housing Chongqing | The number of listings exceeds 190,000 units! After two months of heat, the second-hand housing market in Chongqing has cooled down again)

The number of second-hand housing listings hit a new high.

According to data from the Keike Housing App, as of March 23, the number of second-hand housing listings in Chongqing has reached 194,000 units (178,000 units in the same period last year), an increase of about 16,000 units year-on-year. This is another new high in the number of second-hand housing listings in Chongqing after the number of listings exceeded 180,000 last year.

Not only has the number of listings increased sharply, but in February this year, due to the increase in listings and increased competition in Chongqing’s second-hand housing market, many homeowners had to cut meat and cut prices, which also brought the entire market’s transaction volume close to the peak of last year. According to the monitoring data of the China Index Research Institute, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the central urban area of ​​Chongqing reached 11,473 in February, an increase of about 55.6% from the previous month.

But in March, Chongqing’s second-hand housing transaction volume and viewing volume began to decline. Many industry insiders said in an interview with the “Daily Economic News” reporter that the current wait-and-see sentiment among home buyers is still strong, and the recovery of the market requires the recovery of residents’ confidence in home ownership and income expectations, and the overall still needs to rely on the restoration of macroeconomic fundamentals.

It is worth mentioning that on March 19, Chongqing fully implemented the double notice of second-hand housing “transfer with mortgage” (referring to the registration of second-hand housing transfer notice and mortgage notice registration) in view of the situation that the buyer and seller’s loan banks are the same bank, so that second-hand housing Trading people no longer need to worry about “bridge funds”, and the transaction cycle will be greatly shortened.

Trading volume rose month-on-month in February

“In February, the volume of transactions and visits increased by about 2 times year-on-year. I personally sold 4 suites, and the sales volume of stores exceeded 20.” Tell the “Daily Economic News” reporter on a third-party platform that the transaction cycle has also been shortened recently.

Monitoring data from the Middle Finger Research Institute shows that since the second half of last year, the activity of Chongqing’s second-hand housing market has declined, and the transaction volume and price have fallen. As of last December, the monthly transaction volume was only 6,112 units, a drop of more than 47% from the peak in July last year.

Since the beginning of this year, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Chongqing has begun to rise. According to Ruili data, in January, 7,293 second-hand housing units in the central urban area of ​​Chongqing were sold, an increase of more than 20%.

Second-hand housing transactions in Chongqing in the past 3 months Source: Ruili Data

“In February, under the influence of multiple factors such as the gradual recovery of economic activities and the continued favorable policies, the backlog of demand for home purchases in the early stage continued to release, and the market transactions picked up. In addition, the same period last year and January this year were both on the Spring Festival holiday, and the willingness to buy houses was relatively low. Low, so the year-on-year increase is obvious.” Dai Xiaohong, research director of the Chongqing Branch of the Middle Finger Research Institute, analyzed to reporters via WeChat on March 22.

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“The best time was before or just after the beginning of the new year. At that time, due to the epidemic, many owners couldn’t bear it anymore and were eager to sell at a lower price, so the price was generally relatively low.” Zhang Fei gave an example to reporters. The second-hand housing in the North Longtousi section has been listed since August 2022, and has dropped from the initial 1.46 million yuan to the current 1.35 million yuan. “The price reduction is actually not that big. Previously, the price reduction of houses in the same community was quite outrageous, and it could be reduced to more than 150,000 or even 200,000.”

With the recovery of the market, according to Zhang Fei, some banks have adjusted their commercial loan interest rate to 4.3%, and only a small part can still lend to 4.1%. In the second half of last year, the commercial loan interest rate in Chongqing was basically 4.1%.

“In February, the number of visits and transaction volume of second-hand housing in Chongqing did increase, but we believe that this unilateral increase is not due to the recovery of real estate and the improvement of consumer income. This must be a short-term increase and a large number of squeezed The demand is concentrated and released. At the same time, due to the frequent thunderstorms of development companies, consumers are more inclined to buy second-hand housing to avoid risks, so Chongqing second-hand housing has a short spring.” Chongqing Huadi Space Technology Co., Ltd. Vice President of Operations, Zhong Kehua Liu Yuxin, a researcher at the Urban and Rural Space and Industrial Development Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter on WeChat on March 22.

The popularity of second-hand housing has declined

However, the popularity of second-hand housing in Chongqing has declined since March.

“Recently, compared with February, the transaction volume and the viewing volume have indeed dropped a bit, but the price is relatively stable.” Zhang Fei said that now the owners are less willing to sell at a lower price, and their mentality is much better. “In the past, the owners of the 930,000 units in Bashu City sold them all, but now the cheapest ones cost 1 million to 1.05 million. But in fact, the owners did not increase the price, but they were not in such a hurry to lower the price and sell it.”

“However, the demand for improvement is still growing.” Mr. Shu, the founder of Chenyu Lianhang Housekeeping Company and a real estate investment expert, told reporters through WeChat on March 22 that the two stores he opened have improved the number of visits and customer visits since March. Trading volumes are increasing.

The reporter learned from many local real estate brokers in Chongqing that quite a few of the customers who took the tour expressed the need to “sell first and then buy”, and simultaneously view the house while selling the house.

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On a life information exchange platform in Chongqing, a homeowner stated that he had listed for sale a second house with an average price of more than 10,000 yuan in Jiulongpo District, because he had two children at home and wanted to replace it with a bigger one. The current listing price of the house is 960,000 yuan, which is 20,000 yuan lower than the initial price.

According to the data from the China Index Research Institute, the price of second-hand housing in Chongqing continued to decline in February, and the listed prices of second-hand housing in the main urban area continued to adjust, down 0.32% month-on-month. From a regional perspective, the listing prices of second-hand housing in various jurisdictions in the main city of Chongqing continued to fall month-on-month in February, and the price declines in each district were not much different, all in the range of 0.2%-0.5%.

According to Zhuge’s housing search statistics, last week (March 13-March 19), the average price of Chongqing’s second-hand housing market was 14,257 yuan per square meter, which was flat from the previous month.

Data source: Zhuge Xunfang

In Dai Xiaohong’s view, “At present, home buyers are still in a wait-and-see mood. The recovery of the market requires the recovery of residents’ confidence in home ownership and income expectations. The overall still needs to rely on the restoration of macroeconomic fundamentals.”

It should be pointed out that due to the decline in market popularity, developers have lacked confidence. According to an industry insider in Chongqing, when the transaction volume of new and second-hand housing rose in February this year, some developers felt that the market was recovering and were already looking at land for investment, but they put aside their investment preparations after the market became less popular in March.

“After the investment demand in Chongqing disappears, what remains is rigid demand and improved demand. In the long run, these two types of demand will have a relatively constant value. Because many development companies were hit by thunder before, the project shutdown problem was serious, and everyone was out of risk aversion. , I definitely prefer existing houses, and second-hand houses will absorb a large number of people who once wanted to buy new houses.” Liu Yuxin said that the current efforts from the central government to the local government are to achieve guaranteed delivery of buildings and effectively solve the problem of project shutdown. It should be able to effectively improve in 2023. , So as to restore consumers’ confidence in the delivery of new homes.

The listing volume exceeds 190,000 sets

Although the market activity has declined, the number of second-hand housing listings in Chongqing remains high.

According to the data of the shell house search app, as of March 23, the number of second-hand housing listings in Chongqing has exceeded 194,000. In the same period last year, the number of listings was about 178,000, an increase of about 16,000 compared to the same period last year.

Looking back at the increase in the number of second-hand housing listings in Chongqing, the series of regulatory policies introduced in the second half of 2021 is a watershed. Since then, the number of second-hand housing listings in Chongqing has continued to increase, and since 2022 it has successively exceeded 160,000 units and 170,000 units. , 180,000 sets, and now more than 190,000 sets.

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“From the end of 2016 to the end of 2019, Chongqing experienced a period of rising prices. The price of housing in the main urban area rose unilaterally. In addition, the policy of unlimited purchases for local citizens at that time made real estate an investment product for most families. The annual housing volume in Chongqing reached more than 2,000 10,000 square meters, a large amount of demand can be undertaken, which eventually leads to the fact that middle-class families and rich people in Chongqing often own multiple suites.”

Liu Yuxin pointed out that after the introduction of the “Three Red Lines”, Chongqing real estate’s unilateral growth expectations were broken. Coupled with the economic downturn, home buyers’ risk aversion increased, and multiple factors superimposed to form a phenomenon of selling assets for cash.

Data source: Middle Finger Research Institute

A notable phenomenon is that before 2021, the scale of new housing transactions in Chongqing was larger than that of second-hand housing transactions, but this situation reversed in 2022. According to Chongqing Ruili data, since 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Chongqing has continued to be higher than that of new housing, especially since August last year, this sign has continued to expand significantly.

Specifically, in August 2022, the transaction volume of new houses in Chongqing accounted for 1/3 of the transaction volume of second-hand houses. The proportion quickly jumped to 70%, that is, 7 out of every 10 housing transactions are second-hand housing.

“In fact, the overall situation of real estate in Chongqing has not changed. From the point of view of the supply port, the stock in Chongqing is too large, and the development companies have obtained pre-sale certificates but have not sold them, and they have not obtained pre-sale certificates in construction, and there are 5,000 land stocks that have not started. About 10,000 square meters.” Liu Yuxin said that from the point of view of demand ports, real estate is unlikely to rise, and investment attributes will disappear. “However, the current economic recovery is still difficult. Overall, real estate demand has not recovered.”

However, he also pointed out: “The essence of all problems in the real estate market is a problem of supply and demand. The real estate problem is never solved by the real estate itself. People are the root of all business logic. The logic of real estate growth is the logic of population, and the logic of population is the logic of industry. Only industrial development can solve the problem.” Absorb the foreign population and increase the demand for housing purchases.”

Disclaimer: The Securities Times strives for truthful and accurate information, and the content mentioned in the article is for reference only and does not constitute substantive investment advice, so operate at your own risk

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