The logistics industry maintains a steady recovery and the foundation still needs to be consolidated
——Analysis of logistics operation from January to July
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
China Logistics Information Center
In July, the logistics operation was generally stable, but the growth rate declined. On the one hand, there were traditional seasonal factors, and this month was superimposed by short-term factors such as high temperature, floods and local epidemics in some areas. On the other hand, the rebound in logistics demand still needs to be further consolidate. In general, the current economic recovery and the policy of ensuring smooth access and smooth flow have achieved obvious effects, and logistics operations have maintained a recovery trend. In the later stage, it is necessary to further release incentive policy expectations, stabilize market expectations, enhance the vitality of micro-enterprises, and maintain the strong resilience of the industrial and manufacturing industry chain and supply chain. Stabilize production capacity and expand the market for consumer logistics demand.
1. The growth rate of total logistics demand is stable and slowing down, and the basis for recovery still needs to be consolidated
From January to July, the total social logistics in the country was about 190 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% based on comparable prices, and the growth rate was basically the same as that from January to June; the increase in the month was 3.3%, a slight drop of 0.3 percentage points from June. However, it should also be noted that since July, there have been sporadic epidemics in many places, superimposed by local high temperature, floods and other unfavorable factors, the economic recovery momentum of logistics demand has slowed down marginally, and the foundation for consolidating the recovery still needs to be strengthened.
With the implementation of a series of national policies to stabilize the economy, the structure of logistics demand has shown positive changes, and the demand for industrial logistics has shown an orderly recovery; import logistics continued to decline, with a slight decrease in decline; logistics demand related to people’s livelihood grew steadily.
From the structural point of view, the supporting role of industrial manufacturing logistics is prominent. From January to July, the total amount of industrial goods logistics increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points faster than that from January to June. In July, it increased by 3.8%, which continued the recovery trend since May, and has a significant supporting role. The supply chain of key industries such as automobile manufacturing has resumed smooth and stable, and the growth rate of logistics demand for high-tech manufacturing such as the photovoltaic industry has continued to maintain rapid growth, continuing to play a leading and leading role. In July, the demand for automobile manufacturing logistics increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate was more than 5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the recovery trend was obvious. High-tech manufacturing increased by about 6% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to lead.
The decline in import logistics has narrowed. The price of bulk commodities has declined in the recent fluctuations, and the support effect of price factors on imports has weakened, and the overall import logistics has declined. From January to July, the total import logistics volume decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year; in July, it decreased by 5.8%, and the decline rate narrowed by 6.2 percentage points. In terms of import volume, compared with the data in the first half of the year, in terms of commodities, the import logistics of iron ore and its concentrates, crude oil, coal and lignite decreased year-on-year; meat, beauty cosmetics and toiletries in the consumption field were slightly improved.
The demand for consumer logistics for people’s livelihood maintained steady growth. From January to July, the total amount of goods logistics for units and residents increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was basically the same as that from January to June. The online retail sales of physical goods in the whole society increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that from January to June. The postal express business closely related to online shopping has picked up synchronously. According to the data of the State Post Bureau, the express delivery business volume in July was 9.65 billion, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year.
2. The logistics market has recovered rapidly, and the supply scale and service capacity have risen to normal levels, but the lack of micro vitality still needs attention
The logistics market recovered well. From January to July, the total revenue of the logistics industry reached 7.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. The growth rate fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the first half of the year, but it still maintained a rapid growth. From January to July, the decline in freight volume in the whole society narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared with that in the first six months. However, in various logistics links, the physical volume of railway and water transportation further increased, and the national port cargo throughput turned from decline to increase, an increase of 0.1% year-on-year. The efficient and smooth operation of transportation logistics plays an important role in the overall recovery of logistics.
From the perspective of the industry, logistics companies have entered the traditional off-season, and the growth rate of business volume and the level of prosperity have declined seasonally. According to key survey data, the logistics business income of key enterprises from January to July increased by about 7% year-on-year, the growth rate was slightly lower than that from January to June, and the income profit margin of key logistics enterprises fell by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of the logistics business revenue of supply chain and express delivery companies continued to improve, which was higher than that in the first half of the year. In the transportation industry, the growth rate of revenue from road transportation and air transportation business was still at a low level, and there was no obvious improvement. From the perspective of the prosperity index, entering July, the logistics industry’s prosperity has been greatly adjusted compared with the previous month due to seasonal factors, and both supply and demand of logistics have slowed down to varying degrees. The total business index fell by 3.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the new orders index fell by 3.4 percentage points. Among them, the recovery process of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises is relatively slow, and continuous attention is required.
Service prices in the logistics market rebounded, but the rate of increase continued to diverge. The shipping market continued to flourish, and the overall coastal bulk shipping fluctuated, and the freight rate rose slightly. In July, the average value of China’s coastal bulk freight index was 1142.33 points, an increase of 8.9% from the previous month; the average value of China’s export container comprehensive freight index was 3239.69 points, an increase of 0.4% from the previous month. The recent repeated epidemics and rising oil prices have pushed up road transportation costs, but the cost transmission effect is low. In July, China’s road logistics freight index was 103.2 points, up 0.47% from the previous month.
Overall, logistics operations have continued to recover since the beginning of this year. Although affected by seasonal factors such as high temperature and rain in July, the logistics indicators experienced a seasonal correction, but the supply and demand sides of logistics still achieved steady growth, and the logistics operation showed good resilience. It is worth noting that since the first half of the year, the logistics demand and the economic level have shown a certain volatility, the basis for the recovery of logistics demand still needs to be consolidated, and the activities of market players still need to be further stimulated. From the perspective of the later trend, although the logistics operation has slowed down due to seasonal factors, the foundation for stability and improvement has not changed. The macro-economy generally maintains a recovery trend, the main macro indicators remain within a reasonable range, the quality of development continues to improve, and the logistics industry will continue to maintain a steady growth trend.