Source: Southwest Futures Author: Southwest Futures
Research report text
【soybean meal】
U.S. soybeans ended higher on Tuesday, with the soyoil contract hitting a one-month high, as traders said concerns over the outlook for a drought-hit crop in Argentina, the world‘s largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil. Precipitation in Argentina’s crop belt “remains limited in terms of coverage and intensity over the next 10 days, which will continue to expose widespread drought and stress to late crop development,” space technology company Maxar said in a daily weather report. Traders waited The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s two-day annual outlook forum, which begins Thursday, is expected to release preliminary forecasts for major U.S. crop plantings and production through 2023.
On the domestic front, the crushing volume of oil mills fell slightly to the highest level in the same period in the past four years. The loss of pig farming narrowed slightly, and the profit was at the lowest level in the same period in the past 8 years. The profit of white-feathered broiler farming narrowed slightly, and the profit was at the highest level in the same period in the past 8 years.portsoybeanThe inventory rebounded slightly to the low level in the same period in the past six years, and the soybean meal inventory in oil factories rose to the middle level in the same period in recent years.
By the end of 2022, there will be 452.56 million live pigs, an increase of 0.7%. In December 2022, the national feed output was 29.187 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; from January to December, the national feed output was 323.277 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%.
Spot, Lianyungang 4540, steady.
strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions of soybean meal in light positions, consider adding short positions near the previous high, and pay attention to stop losses.
【grease】
The U.S. soyoil contract hit a one-month high, traders said, on concerns about crop prospects in drought-hit Argentina, the world‘s largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil. Horse palms closed down on Tuesday, showing profits after a three-day winning streak, and the weakening of related oil varieties also brought pressure, but concerns about a possible decline in production limited the decline. Canola rose to its highest level in more than a month on Tuesday, while gains in soybean futures supported the market.
Domestically, soybean oil inventories fell 1% week-on-week,palmWeek-on-week oil inventories fell by 1.5%, vegetable oil inventories increased by 6.3% week-on-week, palm oil stocks went out of storage for two consecutive weeks, soybean oil inventories remained at the lowest level in the same period in nearly four years, vegetable oil inventories rose to the second-lowest level in the same period in nearly four years, and palm oil inventories remained at nearly The highest level in the same period of 4 years. Consumption recovered significantly during the Spring Festival, but we need to pay attention to whether domestic catering demand can continue to maintain a good trend after the holiday.
On the spot side, Guangdong palm oil is stable at 8120, and Zhangjiagang first-class soybean oil is stable at 9860.
strategy: It is recommended to wait for the callback to buy oil.
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