Home Business The lower-than-expected loan interest rate is not only good for the property market | LPR_Sina Finance_Sina.com

The lower-than-expected loan interest rate is not only good for the property market | LPR_Sina Finance_Sina.com

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The lower-than-expected loan interest rate is not only good for the property market | LPR_Sina Finance_Sina.com


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Original title: Loan interest rates have been lowered more than expected, and the good is not only the property market

Last Friday, the quotation of LPR (loan market quotation rate) with a maturity of more than 5 years was cut unexpectedly. What is the impact on the market?

On May 20, the latest LPR quotation was released: 1-year LPR is 3.7%, and LPR for more than 5 years is 4.45%. As expected by the market, the LPR interest rate was lowered, but beyond expectations, this time, the LPR interest rate for more than 5 years was lowered by 15 basis points (BP).

This move is regarded by the market as the central bank “opening a small stove” for the real estate market alone. In this regard, there is a market view that when the LPR of more than 5 years is reduced, the cost of existing mortgages will also be reduced, which will help reduce the mortgage repayment burden of existing homebuyers and boost consumer demand; in addition, homeowners may therefore Reduce the incentive to repay loans early and increase the willingness to hold shares, especially holding stocks with a dividend yield of more than 5%.

The large-scale reduction of LPR with a period of more than 5 years has stimulated a surge in Chinese assets such as A shares, Hong Kong stocks and exchange rates. In terms of the performance of the A-share market, as of the close on May 20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.6%, recovering 3,100 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.82%; the ChiNext Index rose 1.69%; the Hong Kong stock market also rebounded significantly. The technology index rose 4.7%.

As of 16:30 on May 20, the onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.6740, an increase of 938 basis points from the previous trading day and an increase of 1090 basis points within the week. What is more worth mentioning is that as of the close, the spread between offshore RMB and onshore RMB has also narrowed to 42 basis points.

From a broader perspective, the reduction of LPR will not only have an impact on the housing market, but will also affect all walks of life and benefit more entities. As a reference for the pricing of medium and long-term loans, the reduction of LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years will help to promote the stabilization and recovery of medium and long-term loans and boost the financing needs of enterprises.

  How it affects the property market

As an anchor for mortgage pricing, for homebuyers, the reduction in the LPR interest rate for a period of more than 5 years will reduce mortgage expenditures while the base of the additional points remains unchanged. Industry insiders who were interviewed by Yicai believe that, on the one hand, this means that the financial policy to support the housing demand for rigid needs has been strengthened; It will help reduce the mortgage repayment burden of existing home buyers and boost consumer demand.

Since the LPR reform in August 2019, the LPR with a period of more than 5 years has been lowered 4 times, from 4.85% to 4.6%, and further reduced to 4.45% after this adjustment.

Industry experts told reporters that, different from corporate loans, personal housing loans have a long term. Currently, more than 99% of personal housing loan interest rates are linked to LPRs with a term of more than 5 years.

Recently, the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the “Notice on Issues Concerning Adjustment of Differential Housing Credit Policies”, which adjusted the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing newly issued at the national level from LPR to LPR-20BP, and the lower limit of the interest rate of the second set of housing loans. Keep LPR+60BP.

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According to industry experts, after this adjustment, according to the latest LPR calculation, the minimum interest rate for personal housing loans can reach 4.25% for the first home and 5.05% for the second home. The reduction of the LPR for a period of more than 5 years will help implement the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, support rigid and improved housing demand, reduce the pressure on residential mortgage interest, stabilize investment, consumption and macroeconomic fundamentals, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

After the completion of the LPR reform in 2019, the interest rates of all newly issued and existing commercial personal housing loans will be formed with the corresponding term LPR as the pricing benchmark. After the mortgage is converted into the LPR interest rate model, all new mortgages adopt the LPR pricing model, and the existing mortgages will also be converted in batches from the second half of 2020.

Industry experts said that this LPR adjustment will have an impact on both newly issued and existing personal housing loans. For newly issued commercial personal housing loans, the interest rate will be lowered by 15 basis points immediately, and the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will adjust the lower limit of the national new commercial personal housing loan interest rate from LPR to LPR-20BP on May 15. Resident families with housing loans will usher in a double benefit, and resident families who buy a second home will also benefit from it.

The expert also said that for the existing commercial personal housing loans, it will also be reduced by 15 basis points after the re-pricing of the interest rate agreed upon in the contract between the buyer and the commercial bank. Based on the loan amount of 500,000 yuan, the term of 30 years, and the repayment of equal principal and interest, the average monthly expenditure can be reduced by about 45 yuan, and the interest expense will be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in the next 30 years.

However, it should also be noted that, according to the regional characteristics of domestic mortgage interest rates, there is still uncertainty as to whether local banking institutions will finally implement it. Moreover, in the actual situation, the first financial reporter learned that different banks will also make different adjustments to the basis for adding points according to the qualifications of the lender and the external environment at that time.

But for banks, compared with other assets, housing mortgage loans are still high-quality assets, and there is an incentive to increase investment.Minsheng BankChief researcher Wen Bin analyzed that in April, housing loans to the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, reflecting the decline in residents’ willingness to buy houses. This month, the 5-year LPR will drop by 15BP, which will generally reduce the cost of housing purchases, help meet the reasonable housing needs of residents and promote consumption.

  Everbright BankMacro analyst Zhou Maohua also told reporters that the lowering of the quoted interest rate for LPRs with a maturity of more than 5 years will directly benefit the manufacturing industry and real estate, and market confidence will gradually recover. .

  Why LPR cut interest rates asymmetrically

In fact, the market was surprised by the sharp reduction in the LPR with a period of more than 5 years. LPR consists of two parts, namely the open market operation interest rate and the plus point. The open market operation interest rate mainly refers to the medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate. Generally speaking, if the MLF does not change, the LPR is difficult to change. This month, the reduction of LPR for more than 5 years is the first time since the new LPR mechanism in 2019.

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“Focusing on stimulating the credit demand of market players and stabilizing the operation of the property market, it is very urgent to drive down the loan interest rates of enterprises and residents.” Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that more importantly, the marginal monetary policy Pushing towards easing, during this period, the market interest rate represented by the yield of interbank certificates of deposit has dropped sharply. In addition, the regulatory authorities have recently made efforts to reduce the cost of bank deposits. Therefore, the motivation of the quotation banks to reduce the LPR quotation has increased significantly, which eventually led to the May 5-year The LPR quotation in the period broke the norm and fell.

The reason why the quotation of 5-year LPR was lowered by 15 basis points, while the quotation of 1-year LPR remained unchanged, in the opinion of industry insiders, this may be due to the fact that the current corporate loan interest rate has been at the lowest point since the reform and opening up more than 40 years ago. The residential mortgage interest rate is still at a relatively high level; moreover, although the real estate financial environment has continued to pick up since the beginning of the year, due to factors such as the epidemic and the operating laws of the industry itself, the downward trend of the property market continues, and the drag on the macro economy is increasing. .

Among them, the growth rate of real estate investment from January to April turned from positive to negative, and the housing-related consumption in the total retail sales of consumer goods continued to be in a state of negative growth. As a result, after the central bank announced on May 15 that it lowered the lower limit of the first-home mortgage interest rate by 20 basis points, the 5-year LPR quotation mainly for residential mortgages in May was also lowered by 15 basis points, indicating that the current policy is facing the property market. The targeted rate cut is increasing. , intended to curb the downward trend in real estate.

Zhou Maohua also told reporters that this time the 5-year LPR interest rate was lowered separately, and the rate exceeded expectations, mainly for three reasons: First, in recent months, the demand for medium and long-term loans in the real economy has been weak, leading financial institutions to reduce the medium and long-term loan demand. The cost of loan interest rates has boosted the financing needs of the real economy; second, the recovery of domestic real estate has been unsatisfactory in recent months, and the drop in the 5-year quoted interest rate will help reduce the cost of mortgage loans, boost the demand for just-needed housing, and promote the smooth operation of real estate; third, Previously, the central bank’s policy of stabilizing growth had been put forward, and the central bank’s balance of profits should be reduced in accordance with the law, special re-lending, and optimization of deposit interest rates, etc., to provide banks with long-term, low-cost funds, and to reduce the cost of medium and long-term loan interest rates for banks and financial institutions. condition.

  There is still room for downgrades in the future

As a reference for the pricing of medium and long-term loans, the reduction of the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years will also help boost corporate financing needs. Corporate sector bill financing accelerated in April, while medium and long-term loan growth was sluggish, reflecting insufficient financing needs. With the reduction of interest rates, the cost of medium and long-term financing will be reduced, which will help companies reverse their expectations as soon as possible, boost confidence, and speed up the resumption of work and production, thereby promoting the economy to operate within a reasonable range.

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Dong Ximiao, a part-time researcher at the Financial Research Institute of Fudan University and chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, also told reporters that at present, the one-year LPR is already low (the one-year MLF operating rate is 2.85%, and the spread is 85 basis points), and there is no room for decline. However, reducing the LPR with a term of more than 5 years can promote the reduction of medium and long-term loan interest rates of enterprises, and boost the willingness and ability of enterprises to resume production and expand investment. Judging from the financial data of the first quarter and April, the slow growth rate of medium and long-term loans of enterprises is more prominent problems; at the same time, promote the reduction of residents’ housing loan burden.

In terms of the exchange rate, “the 5-year LPR unexpectedly dropped by 15 basis points, which boosted the market’s risk sentiment and also boosted the RMB.” A foreign exchange trader at a foreign bank told reporters, “It is expected to continue to observe foreign capital outflows, The potential impact of the export shock on the trade surplus, and the subsequent strength of the USD. We think USD/CNY may break out of the W-shape.”

After this LPR adjustment, looking forward to the future, most market views believe that there is still room for a downward adjustment in LPR.

  CITIC SecuritiesChief strategist Qin Peijing’s team analyzed that on May 20, the central bank lowered the LPR of more than 5 years by 15 basis points, marking that this round of intensively implemented stable growth policies has entered a period of strength, and the focus of monetary policy has shifted from loose money to loose credit. It is expected that this year There is still room for RRR cuts and LPR rate cuts in the remaining time.

Wang Qing analyzed that since the fourth quarter of 2021, the market has fully expected the Fed’s policy tightening. The Fed has also started raising interest rates and reducing bond purchases, but this has not affected the central bank’s two RRR cuts in December last year and April this year. and cut interest rates in January this year. As a result, if the RRR and interest rate cuts continue to be implemented in June or even early in the second half of the year, the LPR quotation will still have a certain degree of room for downward adjustment. This will also lead to a sharper decline in corporate loan interest rates and residential mortgage interest rates.

Wen Bin also said that the current global inflation fluctuates at a high level, the monetary policies of major economies are tightening faster, and the international situation is becoming more complex and changeable. In the next stage, it is expected that monetary policy will continue to play the dual functions of total volume and structure, increase efforts to bail out industries, enterprises and people in difficulty, and accelerate the stabilization and recovery of the economy, operating within a reasonable range.

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Responsible editor: Zhang Yi

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