Source: Baocheng Futures Author: Baocheng Futures
Research report text
Core point of view:
【Shanghai Zinc】
The main contract of zinc fluctuates below the moving average as a whole. The basis spread narrowed and the monthly spread remained stable. The mining end remains loose, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to continue to pick up in December against the backdrop of high profits for domestic refineries. Last week, the output of Mysteel sample galvanizing plant fell back slightly from the high level. On January 5, Mysteel’s zinc ingot stockpile was 52,400 tons, and the week-to-week ratio was 13,000 tons. At present, zinc ingots have begun seasonal stockpiling, which is about a week earlier than in previous years.In the case of short-term macro-neutrality, the base library will be given in advance Zinc priceThe pressure is palpable. From a technical point of view, the main futures price of zinc fell to the bottom of the shock box again, and attention should be paid to whether it breaks down.
It is recommended to hold empty orders
【Shanghai Copper】
The main copper contract fluctuated around the moving average after opening higher at night. The monthly basis spread dropped slightly. The long-term macro continued to recover and benefit copper prices. However, the optimization of domestic epidemic prevention has a greater impact on the current demand. Last week, the operating rate of refined copper rods remained stable at a low level, and the inventory remained stable at a low level. From a technical point of view, the upward trend of copper prices has been disrupted, and the market is in shock. The impact of the epidemic on downstream demand is superimposed on the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, and the arrival of seasonal stockpiles ahead of schedule puts pressure on copper prices.
It is recommended to wait and see or more copper and empty zinc
【Shanghai Nickel】
The main nickel contract continued to fluctuate and go down in the night market, and stabilized at the 209,000 line within the day, and closed at the 210,000 mark. The basis weakens and the monthly spread strengthens. It is reported that the Qingshan Electrowinning Nickel Project has been officially put into production, with a monthly output of 1,500 tons. The weakening of nickel prices is affected to a certain extent by this news. However, the weakening of the overall non-ferrous sector also dragged down the strong nickel price in the early stage, and the nickel price quickly made up for the decline. Since the beginning of this week, the net long and short positions of funds have begun to narrow, while nickel prices have fallen from high levels, but they are still in the dominant position of long funds, so it is recommended to wait and see.
It is recommended to wait and see
1. Industry dynamics
➢ Copper
On January 5, Mysteel’s electrolytic copper stockpile was 117,600 tons, compared with 23,800 tons last Thursday, and 1,000 tons compared with this Monday’s destocking.
➢ Zinc
On January 5, Mysteel’s zinc ingot stock was 52,400 tons, compared with 4,400 tons on Monday this week and 13,000 tons on Thursday last week.
➢ Nickel
On January 6, according to Mysteel’s research and statistics, in the current period (2022.12.29-2023.1.4) Indonesian ferronickel was shipped to China with 62,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 38.41%; 55,400 tons to China’s main ports, a month-on-month decrease of 7.60% . At present, there are a total of 4 ferronickel ships loading/waiting for loading in Indonesia’s main ports, a decrease of 33.33% from the previous period. Although the shipment volume of Indonesian ferronickel and the arrival volume of Indonesian ferronickel in China dropped slightly in the current period, the return flow of Indonesian ferronickel is still at a high level, and the impact of Indonesian ferronickel still exists. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the demand for stainless steel terminals continues to be low. In addition, most 300-series stainless steel plants have completed raw material storage before the Spring Festival, and steel plants have limited acceptance of high-quoted ferronickel resources in the market. The market has a strong waiting atmosphere, and it is expected that the price of ferronickel will run weakly and stably in the short term.
2. Spot Price List
3. Related charts
➢ Zinc
➢ Copper
➢ Nickel
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