Home » The market value of CATL will evaporate hundreds of billions of dollars a day. Lithium battery concept stocks are going to change? Can you buy the bottom? |Lithium Battery|Concept Stocks|New Energy_Sina News

The market value of CATL will evaporate hundreds of billions of dollars a day. Lithium battery concept stocks are going to change? Can you buy the bottom? |Lithium Battery|Concept Stocks|New Energy_Sina News

by admin

Original title: CATL’s market value evaporates hundreds of billions of dollars a day, and lithium battery concept stocks are going to change? Can you buy the bottom?

“Turn off the lights and eat noodles” on Christmas Eve? On December 24, CATL took a collective plunge with a number of new energy concept stocks.

As of the close of the day, Flush data showed that the overall decline of new energy concept stocks and lithium battery concept stocks reached 2.38% and 3.40%, respectively, and 78.8% and 88.21% of the stocks fell. Ningde Times, known as the “king of Ning”, saw its share price plummet by 7.28% on December 24, and its market value fell by 105.524 billion yuan in one day.

Investors were also confused for a while. Was the plunge in the new energy concept stocks a short-term correction or a trend change?

Regarding the sudden plunge of lithium battery and new energy concept stocks, especially when the market value of the Ningde era evaporates hundreds of billions of dollars a day, industry analysts believe that on the one hand, the technology and production capacity of competitors in the Ningde era continue to rise, on the other hand, downstream OEMs Starting to cooperate with more power battery factories to ensure battery supply, the market is worried about whether CATL can continue to maintain a strong position in the industry chain.

  The market value of Ningde Times drops by 100 billion in one day88%Lithium battery concept stocks fell

As of the close of the market on December 24, Flush data showed that the overall decline of new energy concept stocks reached 2.38%, and 119 of the 151 concept stocks fell, accounting for 78.8%. On the other hand, the overall decline of lithium battery concept stocks reached 3.40%, and 217 of the 246 concept stocks fell, accounting for 88.21%.

Let’s first look at new energy concept stocks. On June 16 this year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was 0.76, and the index of new energy was 4.60. The difference is not very large. However, since then, the price of new energy concept stocks has continued to soar. By September 22, the Shanghai and Shenzhen index was -4.37, and the new energy index had risen all the way to 46.46.

By the end of the year, the new energy concept stocks in the cold wind were even hotter. As of December 16, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was still -0.14, and there seemed to be no greater fluctuations in the past six months, but the new energy index rose further to 57.30.

On December 24, new energy concept stocks fell sharply, and it was difficult for investors to judge for a while: whether the sharp fall was a short-term callback after the sharp rise in the past six months or a trend change.

From the perspective of individual stock data, the new energy concept stocks with the highest decline on December 24, such as Almaden, Akcome Technology, Igor, Innova, Zhongtian Technology, etc., all fell by more than 7.25%, of which Almaden’s limit fell .

According to the market value of new energy concept stocks, on December 24, North China Huachuang fell 3.17%, BYD fell 3.57%, Sungrow fell 5.51%, Ganfeng Lithium fell 4.90%, and Yiwei Lithium fell 5.83% , Longji shares fell 2.89%, Guoxuan High-tech fell 6.40%, Xinwangda fell 3.44%, Shanshan shares fell 3.44%.

Lithium battery concept stocks are even more bleak. From the perspective of individual stocks, Defang Nano, Longpan Technology, Yongtai Technology, and Tibet City Investment have all fallen more than 9.90% on December 24, of which the share price of Defang Nano plunged 11.90%.

See also  Meng Yutong’s latest response to being angrily criticized by Dong Mingzhu_Oriental Fortune Network

And if you look at the market value, the most interesting thing is the CATL, whose stock price plummeted by 7.28% on December 24.

As of the close of trading on December 24, CATL’s share price is 576.80 yuan, with a total market value of 1.34 trillion yuan. Compared with the previous day, the market value of CATL lost 105.524 billion yuan in one day.

“I can’t stand it anymore,” some investors complained. Many investors have bought funds from the CATL, saying, “Is it stupid for fund managers not to lighten their positions at high positions?”

The reason why lithium battery concept stocks such as CATL have fallen is also a topic of interest among investors. Some investors said that the decline of the CATL was due to shareholder reductions and public offerings, while other investors believed that the current decline in the stock price of CATL was due to institutional rallies. Others believe that lithium batteries are only a short transition, and hydrogen fuel is the future.

  Dual pressures: rising raw material prices and subsidy decline may restrict the future prosperity of new energy vehicles

In fact, this year’s new energy vehicle market has been showing a trend of continuous upward trend. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the domestic new energy vehicle market sold 450,000 in November, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate was 17.8%, which continued to rise compared with October. Among them, the penetration rate of the new energy passenger vehicle market It is 19.5%. In the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative sales of the new energy vehicle market was 2.99 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times, and the penetration rate was 12.7%. The China Automobile Association predicts that domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 3.4 million vehicles this year.

For 2022, the industry believes that under multiple resonance factors such as demand and supply, the new energy vehicle industry has great potential. In the long run, there is still considerable room for the development of new energy vehicles and is expected to maintain a high growth rate. According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 5 million in 2022, a growth rate of over 50%, and a penetration rate of over 18%. However, this also caused some investors to worry. An investor told the Shell Finance reporter that “the new energy sector has accumulated considerable gains this year, and the valuation of the new energy sector is also at a relatively high level, so investors will leave the market.”

According to the content mentioned in the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)” released last year, by 2025, my country’s new energy vehicle sales volume is expected to reach about 20% of the total vehicle sales volume; in other words, That is to achieve a penetration rate of 20%. Therefore, some investors believe that even if the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market declines, or if the current penetration rate is maintained in the next year, it will reach the planning requirement of 20% penetration rate by 2025. Therefore, the policy level The encouragement of the new energy vehicle market makes investors a little worried.

See also  The deep integration of digital renminbi and the special scenes of the Winter Olympics has achieved full coverage of seven scenes_Winter Olympics_Wallet_Liu Jin

In addition, it is worth noting that 2022 is the last year of state subsidies for new energy vehicles, and state subsidies will be reduced by another 20% on the basis of 2021. The industry believes that although the current new energy vehicle market has turned to market-driven, with the increase in industry concentration, the decline in subsidies still has a certain impact on leading companies, which may lead to an increase in the cost of sales of auto companies or lead to terminal prices rise. Automotive industry analyst Zhang Xiang said, “The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales next year will slow down, and the capital market is also worried about this.”

In addition, rising raw material prices have also put pressure on the development of the new energy automobile industry. At present, the rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven the continuous improvement of the power battery industry’s prosperity, and the upstream raw materials are also in short supply. At present, the industry is worried that power batteries will be restricted by the supply of upstream raw materials.

It is reported that the price of lithium carbonate has risen from about 50,000 yuan/ton in the second half of last year to more than 200,000 yuan/ton in more than a year; the price of cobalt per ton is currently US$69,000, a year-on-year increase of 119%. According to data from Shanghai Steel Union, the upward trend of materials such as lithium and lithium light oxide has not yet ended. Therefore, the market is worried about whether automakers can afford the dual pressure of rising raw material prices and subsidies.

  Battery technology iteratively speeds up, the lithium battery sector has negative incentives

As a core link in the new energy vehicle industry chain, the power battery industry has attracted much attention from capital.

On December 24, as the stock price of CATL plummeted, the lithium battery sector also suffered strong selling pressure. Industry analysts believe that on the one hand, the technology and production capacity of Ningde’s competitors continue to increase. On the other hand, downstream automakers have begun to cooperate with more power battery factories to ensure battery supply. Continue to maintain a strong position is worried.

In addition, a big negative incentive for the lithium battery sector to encounter strong selling pressure is the implementation of the construction plan for the first large-scale mass production line of sodium-ion batteries. On December 23, Zhongke Haina reached a cooperation with Three Gorges Energy, Three Gorges Capital and the People’s Government of Fuyang City in Anhui Province to jointly build the world’s first large-scale mass production line of sodium-ion batteries with a capacity of 1GWh, which will be officially launched in 2022. Put into production.

In fact, this also reflects the iterative battle of power batteries. This year, out of the pursuit of cost-effective advantages, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has gradually increased. According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, starting from May, the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries has surpassed that of ternary lithium batteries. From January to November, the cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 64.8GWh, accounting for the total installed vehicle volume. Of 50.5%, 1.2 percentage points higher than ternary lithium batteries. At present, domestic manufacturers such as CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Yiwei Lithium Energy are adding to the layout of lithium iron phosphate batteries. At the same time, South Korean battery companies such as LG Chem and SKI are also laying out lithium iron phosphate battery technology routes.

See also  CATL: 300 million yuan to participate in the fund Zhuhai Hillhouse as the fund manager

However, the overwhelming share of lithium iron phosphate batteries does not mean that the ternary lithium battery has ceased fire. Due to the different requirements of the vehicle itself for battery range and other requirements, the ternary lithium battery is still the mainstream choice for high-end models with long battery life. In addition, Western Securities analysts said that the technical direction of high-nickel ternary lithium batteries has not changed, and it is still the mainstream trend of future development. Cinda Securities analyzed that under the influence of technological progress and large-scale production, the manufacturing cost of high-nickel batteries will drop rapidly, and the advantages of high-nickel ternary lithium batteries will be more obvious by then.

However, the innovation of the power battery technology route is not limited to ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. In July this year, CATL also officially released its first sodium-ion battery, and plans to basically form an industrial chain in 2023. In addition, solid-state batteries have also become the direction of corporate layout. At the beginning of this year, Weilai Automobile released a 150-degree semi-solid lithium battery solution, saying that it will be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2022; Tesla also released 4680 large cylindrical batteries.

Therefore, the capital market believes that in the field of power batteries, where new technologies and new changes are constantly emerging, once the opportunity is lost in the more promising technological direction, the CATL will face the risk of slipping and being overtaken at any time.

In addition, from the perspective of the capacity layout of the power battery industry, CDB Securities believes that the global new energy vehicle market will continue to develop rapidly in the future. Based on the expected growth of power battery demand in the future and the internal demands of enterprises to further enhance core competitiveness through scale effects, Power battery companies are willing to expand production.

The “2021 Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Report” released by China Automotive Data predicts that my country’s automotive power battery production capacity is expected to reach 358GWh in 2022. According to various plans, by 2025, CATL’s production capacity will reach 627GWh, BYD’s production capacity will reach 180GWh, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, AVIC Lithium Battery and Guoxuan Hi-Tech will reach 186GWh, 88GWh, and 48GWh respectively.

The crazy expansion of production may also bring certain risks. The aforementioned Western Securities analyst said, “At present, there is a structural imbalance between high-end production capacity and low-end overcapacity in power batteries. It may lead to the expansion of the imbalance between supply and demand in the future.” On the other hand, there are also opinions that once the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market slows down, it may lead to overcapacity of power batteries.

At present, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has regulated the lithium battery-related industries and clearly stated that it will guide lithium-ion battery companies to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, and improve product quality.

Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Wang Linlin Linzi

Editor in charge: Liu Debin

.

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Privacy & Cookies Policy