The searing defeat of the Democratic Party in the Virginia elections, with outgoing governor Terry McAuliffe beaten by Republican Glenn Youngkin, a basketball enthusiast, calls President Joe Biden to an immediate change of course, one year after the Midterm elections which could cost the White House control of the House and Senate. Biden, having lost 10% of the votes since January, is paying for the stalemate of economic reforms in Congress and party divisions, with centrist senators Manchin and Sinema obstructing spending packages on climate and infrastructure. Inflation is also scary, which reminds the elderly of the season of President Carter, when he flew an altitude of 13.3.
Even in New Jersey the Republicans have gained ground, with the challenger Jack Ciattarelli, even if the Democratic governor Phil Murphy has been re-elected, an encore for the party that has been missing since 1977. Enough, for conservative analysts, like Marc Thiessen, to predict the débâcle Democratic in 2022, and the return of the Republicans to the White House in 2024. Youngkin has conquered Virginia, a historic state of the South that, for some time, has been taking on the blue color of the Democrats thanks to suburbs of liberal professionals, with a formidable tactic of Trumpism without Trump to echo the cherished themes behind the populist former president, but without his jarring tones, which scare moderate voters. Youngskin tapped on the slogans of education and economics, which resonate in the commercials as references to race, taxes, forced integration, class struggle. The ongoing battle to integrate the curricula of public schools, with references to slavery, African American studies, post-colonial literature, irritates many white middle-class families, who, while not falling into Trump’s propaganda, however, stick to their own traditions. and cultures.
Joe Biden, who had done very well in the European mission of the G20, between allies and opponents, finds himself, a year after the election, on the ropes. If he fails to get his tax plans, infrastructure investments and environmental reforms approved in Congress, he could find himself “lame duck” as early as next November. But even the favorable vote of the senators will not be enough for him to restart: he must, in a hurry, resume the conversation with the citizens, as in the electoral campaign. Pollster, pollster Nate Silver, notes that for a generation, Democrats have been losing votes in rural areas, to gain them in residential areas: last Tuesday, however, Republicans rallied, in Virginia and New Jersey, even in the suburbs, the suburbs of the middle class.
Is it therefore taken for granted that the White House will return to the Republicans in 2024? Not yet. The majority of voters do not want Donald Trump to return and if they saw him come out of the wings, where he has remained for now, they would be restless. Biden has to think. Show up or not in ’24? Pass the baton, and to whom? His deputy, Kamala Harris, is popular in the party but arouses mistrust among conservatives and centrists. If a new primary feud arises among the Democrats, as in 2016, the results could be disastrous, and if Biden dreams of an encore, the risks are no less. Five years after Donald Trump’s debut in politics, America remains in turmoil, and Biden will need every ounce of experience to get out of it.
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