Home » The myth of “new stocks unbeaten” has changed: Many A-shares broke the first day of listing, and the new rules of inquiries hit new yields under pressure

The myth of “new stocks unbeaten” has changed: Many A-shares broke the first day of listing, and the new rules of inquiries hit new yields under pressure

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Original title: “New stocks are unbeaten” myth has changed: A number of A-shares broke the first day of listing, under the new rules of inquiries, new yields are under pressure

Since the revision of the “New Inquiry Regulations”, the quotations of new stocks have become more dispersed, and the effective quotation range has also been significantly expanded. In addition to Corfu Medical, the effective quotation range of Kelda and Zhongzi Technology, which almost broke, has also increased. Expand to 20%-40%.

Make a new or no longer package to make a profit without losing it.

Following Zhongzi Technology, two more companies broke their shares on the first day of listing. On October 25, shortly after the first day of listing on the GEM Board and the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Kefu Medical and Kelda opened both lows. Corfu Medical opened 10.89% lower and Kelda opened 4.9% lower.

However, after a brief break, Kelda’s sudden rise and hit a temporary stop. As of the close, Kelda’s stock price rose 10.76% from the issue price, holding the issue price in a thrilling manner; the closing price of Corfu Medical fell 4.43% from the issue price.

On the same day, Corfu Medical’s total turnover was 1.565 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 47.96%. On the same day, Capita’s turnover rate was 72.41%, with a turnover of 623 million yuan.

Future IPO prices may return to rationality

Public information shows that Corfu Medical, a new stock listed on the Growth Enterprise Market on October 25, is engaged in the R&D, production, sales and service of household medical devices. Its main products cover five major products including health monitoring, rehabilitation aids, respiratory support, medical care, and Chinese medicine physiotherapy. field.

From 2018 to 2020, Corfu Medical’s operating income was 1.087 billion yuan, 1.462 billion yuan, and 2.375 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 66 million yuan, 124 million yuan, and 424 million yuan, respectively. Rapid growth trend.

According to the prospectus, from January to September 2021, the net profit of Corfu Medical was 310 million yuan. The main reason was that the domestic new crown epidemic was well controlled in 2021, the company’s business basically returned to normal, and non-epidemic products will maintain rapid and stable growth. , The gross profit margin of sales gradually returned to normal.

Generally speaking, despite the gradual control of the epidemic situation in China, the company’s operating performance in the first three quarters remained relatively stable, and there was no significant decline.

Kelda experienced a storm of name change. Kaierda, known as “technically supported by industrial robot technology and industrial welding technology“, was named “Hangzhou Kaierda Robotics Technology Co., Ltd.” when it submitted the draft prospectus in December 2020.

By the registration draft on July 30, 2021, it was renamed “Hangzhou Kaierda Welding Robot Co., Ltd.”.

The main reason is that at the end of July this year, the Opinion Implementation Letter of the Science and Technology Innovation Board’s Listing Committee required Kelda to assess whether the company name matches the business substance, and if it does not match, make corresponding adjustments. The company may change its name as a result.

However, in the production and operation of Kaierda, the most concerned is its large connected transactions. Previous reports from the 21st Century Business Herald showed that one of Kelda’s core businesses, “welding robots”, consists of complete robots and special welding equipment for robots. Among them, the cost of complete robots accounts for up to 88% of the cost of Kelda welding robots. .

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In the past three years, the complete robots used by Kelda welding robots have mainly been purchased from a single supplier, Yaskawa Group.

The data shows that from 2018 to 2020, the proportion of outsourced robots used in the welding robots sold by Kelda is as high as 100%, 100% and 97.21% respectively. Among them, the robots purchased from Yaskawa Group accounted for The purchase ratio of the whole robot is 100%, 100% and 98.97% respectively.

Another identity of the Yaskawa Group is Kelda’s second largest shareholder, which holds 18.34% of Kelda’s shares through Yaskawa Electric (China).

Some individual stocks have broken the issue on the first day. In the eyes of market participants, this will help the pricing of new stocks return to rationality, and can promote the return of new stocks to the source of value investment.

“In the future, new stocks will return to more rational prices. Institutions are worried about the ability to accept the secondary market, and low valuations are the best way to successfully issue issuance. For the future market, I personally think that this is a good thing but not a bad thing. The new stock dividend period is about to end. , The game between the market and IPO companies will become more intense, and the market will no longer blindly pursue new shares in the future, but will selectively welcome some listed companies with development potential.” He Lin said.

“New Inquiry Regulations” Accelerate the Break?

It is worth mentioning that, because the above-mentioned stocks are all new shares issued after the implementation of the “New Inquiry Regulations”, and they are all over-raised compared to the original planned amount, some market participants speculate that the implementation of the “New Inquiry Regulations” may be a catalyst. As a result, the valuation of new shares issuance moved up rapidly, which narrowed the gains in listing and then broke the issue.

Earlier, because the A-share market under the registration system frequently produced “three low” new stocks with low issue prices, low price-earnings ratios, and low fundraising amounts, the institution’s “group quotation” behavior presented in the inquiry process aroused regulatory attention.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange have successively revised the price inquiry link in the issuance and underwriting regulations of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext. Strengthen content such as the supervision of inquiry and quotation behavior, promote balanced game between buyers and sellers, and improve the level of marketization of issuance pricing.

According to incomplete statistics by reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald, since the revision of the underwriting system for the registered sector was officially implemented on September 18, 15 new stocks have completed the inquiry and pricing, of which the issuance price of 7 new stocks has exceeded the “four values”. Low value (“four values” refers to the median and weighted average of the quoted prices of offline investors after excluding the highest quotation; weighted average).

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Among them, Corfu Medical is one of them. Corfu Medical’s issue price is 93.09 yuan/share, and the lower of the “four values” is 93.02 yuan/share, and the effective offline quotation range is “93.09-110.10”.

Under higher pricing, Corfu Medical’s final issuance price-earnings ratio is 37.15 times, and the total amount of funds raised is as high as 3.723.6 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 3.7 times the previously expected fund-raising amount of 1.0068 billion yuan.

In fact, since the revision of the “New Price Inquiry Regulations”, the quotations of new stocks have become more diversified, and the effective quotation range has also been significantly expanded. In addition to Corfu Medical, the effective quotation of Kelda, which has almost broken, and Zhongzi Technology, has been broken. The interval has also been further expanded to 20%-40%.

Before the revision of the inquiry system, the highest price and lowest price of the IPO inquiry finalists often had a gap of only a few cents, and the interval width was less than 1%.

At the same time, both China Self-Technology and Kaierda have also over-raised. The issue price of China Self-Technology is 70.9 yuan per share, the issuance price-earnings ratio is 27.94 times, and the total financing capital is 1.525 billion yuan. Previously, the company planned to raise 1.46 billion yuan. Yuan.

The issue price of Kelda is 47.11 yuan per share, the issuance price-earnings ratio is 59.66 times, and the funds raised are 924 million yuan, which is more than twice the original plan of 317 million yuan.

However, in the view of industry insiders, the “new inquiry rules” are aimed at the situation of “group inquiry”, and there is no inevitable connection with the break of new shares.

“The revision of the pricing rules is not aimed at low-priced offerings, but grouping behaviors. Baotuan distorts the market and cannot truly reflect the views of inquiry institutions on new shares. The issue price on the pricing mechanism is still dominated by inquiry institutions. The bid of the institution basically determines the final issue price. It is normal for a break to occur, but it is abnormal for a risk-free launch.” Wang Jiyue said.

Pan Helin also pointed out to reporters that institutions will not blindly give high prices to match policies, and the new rules for inquiries are not too much change. The market has its own market judgment on the pricing of non-hot IPO companies.

Regarding the emergence of the first-day break of new shares, Pan Helin believes that, from a macro point of view, the break is due to the dilution of liquidity of new shares after the market expansion. Under the situation of limited funds for new shares in the secondary market, funds have begun to respond to new shares. Choice. The microscopic reason is that the issue price of some stocks is too high. The comparison is mostly the static price-earnings ratio of last year. If the latest performance of the company does not meet the expectations of investors, it may break the issue.

Hit a new rate of return or will go down

As the inquiry and pricing of new stocks become more scientific and rational, industry insiders pointed out that in the future, new stocks may usher in a certain degree of decline.

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Since the beginning of this year, the rate of return on new sales is showing a significant decline.

In addition to the new stocks that broke on the first day, according to reporter’s statistics, there are not a few stocks that broke within one year after listing. Wind data shows that as of October 25, there have been 394 new stocks listed this year, of which 36 companies’ current stock prices have fallen below the issue price.

According to Huaan Securities’ calculations, under the assumption that all accounts and new shares of 200 million are shortlisted, the average offline A-type lottery winning rate is estimated in January, February, March, April, May, June, and July of 2021. In August, the revenue from the new launch was 1.40.15 million yuan, 1.5683 million yuan, 2.3526 million yuan, 2.6971 million yuan, 2.0329 million yuan, 6.18777 million yuan, 3.86664 million yuan, and 3.3683 million yuan. By September and October of 2021, the revenue from the new sales was only 1,867,600 yuan and 216,300 yuan respectively.

CITIC Securities expects that the first day of IPO growth will decline. Specifically, on the one hand, the highest quotation elimination ratio is adjusted from “about 10%” to “about 1%”, and the possibility of high prices being eliminated is reduced; on the other hand, the cancellation of the pricing and subscription arrangements for new shares issuance and the number of special announcements on investment risks The demand for linkage has increased the number of cases where pricing has broken through the “four-number reference price”.

“From a comprehensive point of view, the overall pricing center of new stocks is moving upwards. Therefore, under the circumstance of other conditions unchanged, it is expected that the growth rate on the first day of listing will decline, which will also have an impact on investors’ new earnings.” CITIC Securities Pointed out.

However, this trend is seen by the industry as a normal phenomenon and an inevitable result under the registration system.

Wang Jiyue pointed out: “Before (new) has been making money, and it is expected that the high quotation will still be profitable; the rapid number of new stocks is constantly increasing, the quotation will be cautious, and the new IPO company will suppress the issue price; subsequent new shares will not be large. It may continue to break, but it won’t always be profitable.”

Debon Securities’ Wu Kaida team also analyzed and believed that under the current rules, if and only when new shares are about to break, investors will reconsider their own margin of safety and make quotations to break the free-riding quotation strategy and rebalance the game. At this time, the first- and second-level spreads earned are no longer risk-free returns, and the income distribution method is no longer the finalist rate. The pricing method that focuses on research and game will need to be improved, and the income distribution returns to research capabilities.

(Author: Yang Ping Editor: Zhang Yujie)


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