On June 22, the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange issued the “Announcement on Matters Related to National Carbon Emissions Trading”, stating that the National Carbon Emissions Trading Agency is responsible for organizing and conducting centralized and unified carbon emissions trading across the country.The countdown to the launch of the national carbon trading market has entered.
On June 26, a number of experts analyzed the impact of the launch of the carbon trading market on various industries to the reporter of “Daily Business News”. Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy.com, said that the eight industries of electric power, steel, building materials, petrochemical, chemical, non-ferrous metals, papermaking, and civil aviation can achieve effective emission reduction, so the national energy conservation and emission reduction policy will achieve good results.
Li Yongliang, deputy director of the Industry Development Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that for companies and capital markets, the launch of the national carbon trading market is a very important measure to implement “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”. Its significance lies in Carbon dioxide can be given a certain price and cost, thereby affecting the value of the company’s fixed assets and the cost of operations.
“Carbon neutral” is conducive to increasing industry concentration
It is understood that according to general calculations, the total carbon emissions of the petrochemical and chemical industries are ranked 4th in the entire industry, and the top ones are power, steel and building materials. In terms of breakdown, the total carbon emissions of the petrochemical and chemical industries are ranked 4th. Sub-sectors such as alkalis, inorganic acids, and fertilizers have relatively large carbon emissions.
“For enterprises and capital markets, the launch of the national carbon trading market is a very important measure to implement’carbon peak’ and’carbon neutrality’. Its significance is that it can give carbon dioxide a certain price and cost, thereby affecting enterprises. The value of fixed assets and the cost of operation.” Li Yongliang believes that after the carbon trading market goes online, companies may have to reassess their assets, and the prices of some assets, especially those with high carbon emissions, may be reduced. Companies with advanced process production lines consider that After the price of carbon, it will be more dominant than its peers, which is conducive to asset appreciation.
For some companies with high energy consumption and gaps in carbon emission quotas, Li Yongliang pointed out that the introduction of the carbon trading market does not necessarily make companies pay a high price, because companies can reduce carbon emissions and energy consumption through energy-saving technological transformation, that is, reduce energy. cost.
“Because in the first few years of the national carbon trading market, the allocation of carbon emission allowances should be mainly free, and for the entire petrochemical and chemical industry, there is definitely a gap in carbon emission allowances, which requires companies to pay a certain cost. “Li Yongliang said.
The “Daily Economic News” reporter noted that some chemical companies have reduced production costs by building auxiliary production systems such as heat and electricity.
Li Yongliang affirmed this, “Energy-saving projects such as the utilization of waste heat and the cascade utilization of thermal energy by chemical companies will help companies and their parks to reduce carbon emissions, and will also bring related benefits of carbon emission reduction. Some companies have carbon emissions per unit product. The amount is lower than the industry average. At this time, in fact, its carbon emission allowance may have surplus, and it can sell part of the allowance through the carbon trading market and benefit from it. Therefore, I suggest that companies go for some energy-saving projects as much as possible.”
Li Yongliang suggested that, on the one hand, companies must pay attention to the progress of the carbon trading market-related construction work. Because if you can make good use of the carbon trading market, companies can benefit from it; on the other hand, companies, especially petrochemical and chemical companies, should pay attention to the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” planning.
On May 31, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the “Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Prevention and Control of the Eco-Environmental Source of Construction Projects with High Energy Consumption and High Emissions”, which clearly stated that carbon emission impact assessment should be incorporated into the environmental impact assessment system.
In this regard, Li Yongliang suggested that companies must pay attention to the construction of carbon emission management capabilities, including establishing the company’s carbon emission management system and training related talents for carbon emission administrators.
According to reports, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, entrusted by the Department of Climate Change Response of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, is carrying out work related to carbon emissions trading in the petrochemical and chemical industries, including the formulation and update of carbon allowance allocation plans for the petrochemical and chemical industries, and the carbon trading market. The operation test of the carbon emission market, the monitoring report of the carbon emission market, the related research of the verification system, the training and evaluation of the carbon emission administrator, improve the company’s carbon trading capabilities and carbon emission management capabilities.
“I think that large enterprises including refining and chemical and coal chemical industries should seize this opportunity to engage in more feasible’carbon neutral’ projects, because the larger the enterprise, the more powerful it is to do the’carbon neutral’ project. In Li Yongliang’s view, “carbon neutrality” is actually more beneficial to leading companies. It is not only conducive to upgrading the entire industry or improving the structure of the entire industry, achieving high-quality development, but also conducive to increasing industry concentration.
Carbon neutral concept map image source: Visual China
To achieve the goal of “carbon neutrality”, clean energy needs to be developed
According to Han Xiaoping, Chief Information Officer of China Energy Network, there is still nearly 40 years to “carbon neutrality” and nearly 10 years to “carbon peak”. During this period, we need to move forward steadily and achieve the goal step by step. It must be too radical. “There is still some room for emissions to grow, but the rate of increase is not very large. There will be almost 800 million tons of standard coal to reach the’carbon peak’ in the next 10 years.”
The “Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)” shows that by 2020, my country’s total energy consumption must be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal, and by 2030, my country’s total energy consumption must be controlled within 6 billion tons of standard coal. Within coal.
Han Xiaoping introduced that the current carbon emissions of the power industry account for about 45% of total carbon emissions, but electricity only accounts for about 27% of domestic final energy consumption. my country’s per capita power consumption is about 5,500 kWh, which will gradually increase to 1.2 in the next 40 years. Million degrees. “This period cannot increase carbon dioxide emissions too much. In fact, the power industry has a higher energy conversion efficiency and has done a good job in reducing carbon emissions. The requirement for the power industry to reduce emissions is a bit like’whipping a fast cow’.”
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the national power generation capacity was 7.42 trillion kWh, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year, of which thermal power generation reached 5.28 trillion kWh, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year. As of the end of 2020, the country’s full-caliber thermal power installed capacity reached 1.245 billion kilowatts, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year, accounting for 56.58% of the total installed capacity, coal-fired power installed capacity was 1.080 billion kilowatts, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year, and gas-fired power installed capacity was 98.02 million kilowatts. , An increase of 8.6% year-on-year.
Han Xiaoping believes that electric energy is currently the most efficient energy source, and the proportion of electric energy in energy will determine whether the country can achieve “carbon peak” in the future. Among them, thermal power needs to grow further, because it is necessary to ensure that electricity is first replaced by other polluting and inefficient energy sources. “However, the proportion of thermal power in electricity is decreasing. To achieve’carbon neutrality’, the development of photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower is needed. , Nuclear power and other clean energy.”
Steel and cement may achieve “carbon neutrality” ahead of schedule
“Because of the long process flow of the steel industry and more intermediate products, the calculation of carbon emissions is relatively difficult. At present, the steel industry’s standard determination of carbon emissions trading is still in progress.” Xu Xiangchun, the information director of my steel network, introduced. The steel industry is the industry with the highest carbon emissions except thermal power, accounting for about 15% of all carbon emissions.
In recent decades, my country’s steel industry has done a lot of work on improving energy efficiency. From the perspective of carbon emissions, it is also at an advanced level in the world, but the steelmaking process determines that the steel industry must be a high-emission industry. , Has little relationship with technological progress.
Therefore, Xu Xiangchun said that the issuance of carbon emission quotas is to promote enterprises to reduce carbon emissions. On the other hand, considering the current status of the steel industry and some existing problems, the relevant standards cannot be raised too high, otherwise the gains will not be worth the loss.
Photo source of steel production workshop: Photograph.com
According to Han Xiaoping, the domestic steel industry still needs to transform and upgrade, especially to reduce the smelting of ordinary steel, because this piece has exceeded domestic demand, and continued increase in output will reduce the overall efficiency of the steel industry.
He predicted, “It is estimated that by 2060, maybe by 2050, the domestic steel industry does not need to increase new production capacity. It can recycle with its own savings of steel and scrap steel, and our steel imports are very small. With other alternative materials, steel will achieve’carbon neutrality’ ahead of schedule.”
Like the steel industry, Han Xiaoping said that as the construction peak period has passed, the cement industry is unlikely to continue to grow substantially, and cement can also fix a part of carbon dioxide during use, so there is no need to worry about the increase in carbon emissions from cement. The carbon emissions of the cement industry can be solved by alternative materials, such as building a house with composite materials made of organic carbon, which not only consumes less material, has a longer material life, but also has better energy-saving effects.”
In addition, Han Xiaoping said that the carbon trading market is not the only option to reduce carbon emissions. Other mechanisms such as carbon sinks, independent emission reduction, and technological progress must be established, and an overall declining mechanism must be established year by year. Among them, according to the calculations of the State Forestry and Grassland Administration, the domestic vegetation carbon sink capacity is about 700 million to 800 million tons per year. With the warming of the climate and the increase in vegetation coverage, the domestic vegetation carbon sink capacity will be further enhanced, so carbon emission reductions It is a dynamic standard.
“Although everyone has great hopes for the carbon trading market, with the reduction of carbon emissions, the carbon trading volume of this market is also decreasing year by year, and the market will become smaller and smaller in the future. During this period, some industries can achieve ahead of schedule. “Carbon peak” and then achieve “carbon neutrality” ahead of schedule, some industries can be postponed a little bit, because to ensure the healthy development of the overall national economy, we need more wisdom to integrate into it.” Han Xiaoping said.
Cover image source: Visual China
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