(Original title: “Frightened”! The National Development and Reform Commission voices: Will investigate and deal with malicious speculation and drive up coal prices, and Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange also has actions)
On August 26, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that in response to the recent announcement of the coal price increase by the Yulin Coal Trading Center, the leading group of Yulin City, Shaanxi Province to ensure the stable operation of the market decided to conduct a special investigation throughout the city and issue relevant public accounts. The content shall be verified and investigated according to relevant regulations, and the main person in charge of the agency shall be interviewed and dealt with according to relevant regulations.
The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that some institutions and public accounts are still maliciously speculating about coal price increases, and some coal mines are still raising prices unreasonably, causing serious interference to the work of maintaining coal supply and stabilizing prices.
Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange announced on the evening of the 26th that starting from the night trading on the night of August 27, 2021, non-futures company members or customers will open single-day orders for thermal coal futures 2109, 2110, 2111, 2112, 2201, 2202 and 2203. The maximum number of position transactions is 200 lots. The number of open positions in a single day refers to the sum of the number of open positions for buying and selling on a single futures contract that is not a member of the futures company or customers on that day. The maximum number of open transactions in a single day of the actual control relationship account group is executed according to a single customer. The number of open positions for hedging transactions and market making transactions is not limited by the transaction limit.
Affected by the news, the domestic coal futures opened sharply in the evening on the 26th. As of 23:00, the main coke contract fell 4.76%, the main coking coal contract fell 3.54%, and the main thermal coal contract fell 3.31%.
Development and Reform Commission conducts special investigation on malicious hype
On the evening of August 25, the Leading Group of Yulin City, Shaanxi Province to Ensure the Stable Operation of the Coal Market issued the “Announcement on the City-wide Special Investigation of Information and Public Opinion on Coal Price Rising”.
(Source of screenshot: Yulin Development and Reform Commission official website)
The “Announcement” pointed out that on August 23, the Internet reprinted the article “Reappearing the daily limit wave under the boost of demand, “Coal Super Crazy”, Unabated Firepower”, and the information contained in it comes from the “Yulin Coal Trading Center” operated by Yulin Coal Trading Center Co., Ltd. “The official account, after preliminary investigation, the information released by the official account has had a negative impact on the work of stabilizing supply and insuring prices in Yulin City.
In response to the recent release of coal price information by the Yulin Coal Trading Center, the leading group of Yulin City, Shaanxi Province to ensure the stable operation of the market decided to carry out a special investigation throughout the city, verify the content of relevant official accounts, and conduct investigations in accordance with relevant regulations. The main person in charge of the agency conducts an interview and handles it in accordance with relevant regulations.
On August 26, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a message in response to this matter, saying that as the peak of summer comes to an end, the tight coal supply and demand situation in the country has improved significantly. Some institutions and public accounts are still maliciously speculating about coal price increases, and some coal mines are still unreasonable. The price increase has caused serious interference to the work of ensuring coal supply and price stabilization. The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen monitoring with relevant parties, and investigate and deal with illegal acts such as malicious speculation and price hikes in accordance with laws and regulations.
After the announcement by the Yulin Development and Reform Commission on the evening of August 25, on August 26, the coal system plunged, and steam coal, coke, and coking coal generally fell. According to Glan Steel.com, the main 2201 coking coal futures contract opened slightly higher at 2601 yuan in early trading on the 26th, and prices fluctuated throughout the day after the opening. The highest of the day was 2624.5 yuan, and the lowest of the day was 2502 yuan, and finally closed at 2536.5 yuan, a decrease of 8.5 yuan, or 0.33%, from the settlement price of the previous day. The trading volume was 370,000 hands, and the open interest was 245,000 hands, which was 3,394 hands from the previous trading day.
Take multiple measures to ease the recent coal supply
According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, since the second week of July, coal prices have continued to rise as a whole. The data shows that coal prices rose slightly from July 12 to 18. The prices of coking coal, No. 2 anthracite coal, and thermal coal were 826 yuan, 996 yuan and 708 yuan per ton, respectively, up 0.9% from last week. 0.5% and 0.4%. From August 16 to 22, coal prices continued to rise. The prices of coking coal, No. 2 anthracite coal, and thermal coal were 859 yuan, 1046 yuan and 746 yuan per ton, respectively, up 1.9% from last week. , 1.1% and 0.9%.
On July 16, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document stating that the scale of coal reserves will be further expanded. The country is advancing the construction of coal reserve capacity. The overall goal is to form a coal reserve capacity equivalent to 15% of the annual coal consumption and about 600 million tons of coal in the country. The government can dispatch coal reserves of no less than 200 million tons. Directly dispatched by the government, the other 400 million tons is corporate inventory, which is adjusted through the minimum and maximum inventory system. After years of construction, a government dispatchable reserve capacity of 100 million tons has been formed.
The Development and Reform Commission pointed out that in the next step, it will also accelerate the construction of a reserve capacity of more than 100 million tons, and at the same time promote the increase of coal storage in the reserve facilities that have been put into operation, strengthen management, accelerate turnover, and ensure that coal reserves can play a role in a timely and effective manner.
On August 24, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as “DCOM”) issued the “Notice on Adjusting Coking Coal Futures Location Premiums and Discounts”, clearly adjusting the premiums and discounts of coking coal futures designated delivery warehouses in Shanxi Province from -300 yuan/ton It is -200 yuan/ton and will be implemented in JM2206 and later contracts. DCE also issued the “Notice on Collecting Designated Delivery Warehouses for Coking Coal and Coke Futures” on the same day, proposing that in order to better leverage the functions of the futures market and serve the coking coal and coke industries, DCE is now publicly soliciting designated delivery warehouses for coking coal and coke futures. .
On August 25, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that after more than 20 open-pit coal mines received approval for land use last month, 16 more open-pit mines in Ordos recently received approval for land use, involving a production capacity of about 25 million tons per year, and a production capacity of nearly 25 million tons per year. The 50 million-ton/year open-pit coal mine will successively obtain approvals for subsequent land use in mid-September. After all normal production, the monthly output can increase by more than 7 million tons.
The tight supply of thermal coal is difficult to reverse in the short term
The Yulin Development and Reform Commission pointed out that in the near future, with the implementation of various measures such as the country’s relaxation of procedures for nuclear increase of coal production capacity, postponement of joint trial operation of coal mines, and the release of coal reserves, some of the production capacity has been effectively released and the shortage of domestic thermal coal supply has been relieved. The price has dropped.
However, CITIC Securities believes that since the beginning of this year, there have been obvious constraints on the supply of production areas, and the overall national coal output has experienced a year-on-year negative growth from March to July. Despite the continuous implementation of the supply guarantee policy, the release of new output requires a process. Driven by the high growth rate of thermal power, it is expected that the tight supply pattern will not be reversed in the short term. Thermal coal prices are expected to remain high. Although there will be fluctuations in the off-season in September, On the basis of coal prices from July to August, there is a high probability that the average price in the third quarter will continue to rise month-on-month. Especially in the context of the seasonal increase in demand in the subsequent winter, thermal coal prices are also expected to rise further in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the annual average price of thermal coal market will be around 870 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55%.
Essence Securities believes that the supply of coking coal continues to be tight, and prices are expected to continue to run strongly. According to the Coal Resources Network, the implementation of safety and environmental protection in various regions has not been relaxed, coal production is still at a low level, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the coking coal market still exists, supporting the high coal price operation. On the downstream side, coking steel companies are not diminished in their enthusiasm for starting operations. Raw coal stocks in the plants are many low levels, and the demand for raw coal is relatively strong. The supply of some high-quality resources is tight, and it is slightly difficult for coking companies to replenish the inventory. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic coking coal market will maintain a steady and strong operation in the short term.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the current supply of coking coal production areas is limited, imports are recovering slowly, and coking companies are willing to replenish inventory, but coal sources are tight, procurement difficulties, supply and demand continue to be tight, and continue to be optimistic about the performance of coking coal prices. In the medium and long term, the coal industry has entered an era of supply shortage, and demand can still maintain a slight positive growth. Mismatch between supply and demand may be a frequent occurrence during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Thermal coal prices are expected to remain high and industry profits are expected to remain high. , Continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the coal industry.
Editor in charge: Wang Lulu
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