On September 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released a series of economic data for August. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said at a press conference that in August, facing the complex and severe domestic and foreign environment, various regions and departments efficiently coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. We stepped up efforts to implement a package of policies to stabilize the economy and continued policy measures, and accelerated the release of policy effectiveness. The national economy continued to recover and develop, and most indicators were better than last month.
Industrial production has picked up
Consumption potential in key areas is gradually released
From the perspective of production, the policy effect of stabilizing the industrial chain and supply chain and supporting the production of key industries is relatively obvious, and industrial production has rebounded. In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.5%, 1.1 percentage points faster than the previous month. Policies and measures to promote the relief and development of the service industry have gradually become effective, and the service industry has continued to recover. The service industry production index increased by 1.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that looking forward to the next stage, it is expected that industrial production will be affected by both positive and negative factors. On the one hand, infrastructure investment continues to grow rapidly, and domestic demand will continue to recover; on the other hand, external demand is still affected by the global economic slowdown, or may decline.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told a reporter from Securities Daily that as the influence of extreme weather factors recedes, the growth rate of exports tends to decline, and the continued recovery of industrial added value in September faces certain resistance. However, monthly infrastructure investment is expected to continue its high double-digit growth. Driven by the decline in the base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in September is still expected to reach about 4.4%.
From the perspective of demand, the policy to promote consumption continued to exert force, the consumption potential in key areas was gradually released, and the scale of market sales continued to expand. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.
In this regard, Wen Bin believes that such a performance of consumption data is mainly affected by three factors: first, the impact of the epidemic has weakened; second, residents’ consumer confidence has increased; third, the policy of stabilizing consumption continues to play a role.
“After deducting the price factor, the actual sales of consumer goods in August increased by 2.2% year-on-year. Although it improved by about 3 percentage points from the previous month, it was still significantly lower than the industrial growth rate.” Wang Qing said.
In terms of investment, investment in infrastructure and manufacturing both rebounded. From January to August this year, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 36,710.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, 0.1 percentage point faster than that from January to July; and a month-on-month increase of 0.36% in August.
In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 8.3% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than that from January to July; manufacturing investment increased by 10.0%, 0.1 percentage point faster; real estate development investment decreased by 7.4%, the decline was wider than that from January to July 1.0 percentage points.
Wen Bin said that under the background that the special bonds were used up before the end of August and the development policy financial instruments were successively implemented, the future infrastructure investment will still maintain rapid growth, and it is expected to continue to play a supporting role in the next stage.
Steady growth policies have been implemented one after another
Domestic demand is expected to continue to boost
Since mid-to-late August, policy-based interest rate cuts and continued policy measures to stabilize growth have been implemented one after another, which is expected to continue to boost domestic demand.
In Wen Bin’s view, as the policy effects continue to play out, the foundation for economic recovery is further consolidated. It is expected that the GDP in the third quarter is expected to rebound to about 4.1%, the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter is about 4.5%, and the annual growth rate is about 3.6%.
Wang Qing predicts that the macroeconomic data in September will continue to pick up momentum, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will rebound to around 3.8%, and the macroeconomic policy will continue to maintain a steady growth orientation. Among them, infrastructure investment will maintain double-digit growth, and weak links such as small and micro enterprises and household consumption will be the main focus of targeted support policies. In addition, the possibility of further interest rate cuts and expansion of special bond issuance cannot be ruled out.
Pang Ming, chief economist and research director of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, told reporters that in the future, the policy side should focus on expanding and supporting effective social demand, focusing on expanding domestic demand more vigorously, and more effectively enhancing the market players Endogenous power, the focus is not on overweight short-term policies, but on giving priority to ensuring that existing policies are deployed ahead of time, and incremental policies are put into effect. Focus on driving demand with consumption and investment, and effectively make up for the lack of demand.
(Meng Ke)
[Editor in charge: Diao Yunjiao]