Home » The North restarts, the South struggles. Svimez: “Risk of fracture, the PNRR is not enough to relaunch the South”

The North restarts, the South struggles. Svimez: “Risk of fracture, the PNRR is not enough to relaunch the South”

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MILANO – A strong acceleration of industrial production in Lombardy, which chases away the Covid crisis and brings the pace of march of factories to levels prior to the pandemic. But it leaves the rest of the country dangerously behind, opening up to the real risk of a highly differentiated recovery that weakens the Italian system as a whole.

This is what emerges from the double reading of the data presented in rapid succession by the Chamber of Commerce of Milan, Lodi and Monza Brianza and by Svimez. The Association for the development of industry in the South has anticipated some flashes of its 2021 Report, summarizing it with the effect image of a “North and South united in the crisis, divided in the restart”.

In fact, if the fall in GDP in 2020 was all in all homogeneous (from -9.4% in the North-East to -8.2% in the South, for the national average of -8.9%), the recovery is very different. . Svimez estimates that “while the Center-North with the 2021-22 recovery will fully recover the GDP lost in 2020, the South at the end of 2022 will still have about 1.7 points to recover, which are added to about 10 points lost in the previous crisis 2008- 13 and not yet recovered “. Looking at the data of the Lombard Chamber of Commerce, in fact, there are elements to talk about a crisis that has already been overcome in Milan and its surroundings: compared to 2019, the Milanese industrial fabric is already 7.7 percentage points above the item of production and 12 , 8 points for the turnover.

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Twenty years of weak development leads the Association to calculate that, compared to the beginning of the millennium, the GDP of the Center-North will be 7 points higher in 2022 while the South will still remain 8 points below. “Only Lombardy Veneto, Emilia Romagna and Friuli Venezia Giulia demonstrate resilience and in 2022 they will have recovered 2020, all the others do not. The South appears completely far from this recovery. The Italian system does not demonstrate resilience”, said Adriano Giannola, president Svimez.

The Pnrr, our recovery fund, will make an important contribution to growth. Recently Minister Franco returned to ensure that 40% of the resources will go to the South, over 80 billion in value. But according to Svimez’s report it is a “significant but not sufficient contribution to compensate for the lower trend growth in the area”. On the quantum of resources, the Report argues that “a territorial distribution of resources more favorable to the South, and more consistent with the European objective of territorial cohesion (equal to 50%), would not only have the effect of significantly increasing the growth of Southern GDP and to activate a further increase in jobs, but it would also determine a greater overall growth of the national economy. The PNRR foresees that about 182 billion finance new projects and about 53 billion projects already financed. The territorial distribution of these two items, an element that could reduce the share of the South “. Furthermore, the “lack of timely recognition of investment needs” and the fact that “the lower planning capacity of the southern administrations determines the paradox that the realities with the greatest need end up benefiting from insufficient resources” are worrying.

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As for the Northern Regions, in Svimez forecasts it will be Lombardy and Veneto to pass the baton (this year Veneto, the next Lombardy) of the locomotive of the restart of the GDP. In detail Lombardy, the growth projection in 2021 is + 5.8% (against + 5.1% in the Center-North and + 4.7% in Italy) with an employment recovery of 1.8% and household spending by 3.4%, in all cases above average.

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