Source: Best Futures Author: Best Futures
Research report text
Fundamentals:November 28, nationwideeggThe spot price is stable, and the national average price is 5.42 yuan/catties, which is +0.00 compared with November 25. Demand is weak and consumption is dull. At the same time, under the high cost, farmers still have a bottom-up mentality. Market sentiment is pessimistic and cautious. There is no significant difference in production area and sales area.
Look at the spot market:Nationwide, in terms of output: the egg production rate has rebounded moderately, and the pressure on supply has gradually increased.
consumption level, the domestic epidemic control has been tightened again, and the overall consumption has no bright spots. It is more difficult to ship goods in some production areas, and middlemen are cautious in stocking.
Overall, egg prices have entered a new weak seasonal phase. Although there are some fluctuations in some areas in certain periods of time, and farmers also have a mentality of supporting prices, it is not enough to change the general trend of seasonal conversion.
Operation strategy:Spot performance is determined by the transition of egg supply and demand cycles.
The trend of futures is more manifested in following the overall market sentiment. Based on the characteristics of egg spot seasonality and rapid conversion. The re-conversion with the National Day as the time point has been established. We have entered the weak season now. But at the same time, futures are subject to a very high basis difference, resulting in a huge difference in the rhythm of fluctuations and spot.
In the external market, the market as a whole is weak, and raw grains for feed are weak.
In terms of futures, affected by the high basis difference, the fluctuation rhythm becomes complicated, and the rhythm of the funds on the market also shows a difference from that of the spot market.
Today, continue to pay attention to 2301 corresponding to the pressure 4450-4460 line, rely on this position for short-term technical short trading, and maintain intraday trading. At the same time, due to the still large gap between futures and spot prices, and the adjustment of epidemic control measures, the complexity of futures egg price fluctuations is relatively high. Investors are advised to pay attention.
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