Source: Vanguard Futures Author: Vanguard Futures
The text of the research report
Fundamentals:
On the planting side, the defoliation rate of U.S. beans was 5 percentage points slower than in previous years, and the harvesting progress was 2 percentage points slower than previous years. The excellent rate decreased by 1 percentage point, and the poor rate increased by 1 percentage point. The precipitation in Brazil’s production areas is generally normal, and the precipitation situation has improved.
On the consumer side, U.S. soybean sales decreased and export shipments increased.domestic oil plantsoybean mealThe turnover increased on a week-on-week basis, and the delivery increased.stock end, oil millsoybeanInventories are down, soybean meal stocks are down, and total soybean and meal stocks are down. Soybean stocks at ports fell. On the profit side, the squeezed profit has recovered, and the spot squeezed profit is profitable.
The USDA supply and demand report in September is on the high side:Global soybean new crop production decreased by 3.02 million tons month-on-month, consumption decreased by 570,000 tons month-on-month, and ending stocks decreased by 2.49 million tons month-on-month to 98.92 million tons. Too many reports. Among them, the planting area of U.S. soybeans is reduced by 600,000 acres, the yield per unit is reduced by 1.4 bushels/acre to 50.5 bushels, and the output is reduced by 152 million bushels, or about 4.14 million tons. U.S. soybean ending stocks decreased by 1.22 million tons month-on-month.
Operation:The macro is negative, and the bulk is weak as a whole. The tight supply side of US soybeans has been reflected on the disk, and the demand side is beginning to decline. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate weakly. Domestic spot transactions and delivery are booming, oil mills are pressing heavily, soybean and soybean meal inventories have declined, and the overall supply and demand of soybean meal are booming. Soybean meal basis is historically high, and spot crushing is lucrative.
However, in a weak macro environment, high profits are squeezed, and high basis is difficult to maintain for a long time. It is expected that the high profit and high basis of the spot will return to the decline of the spot, and the disk will still be relatively strong compared to the spot. Be cautious on one side, and gradually lighten and close positions in the positive set.
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