① Pulp prices are likely to enter a downward period, and the paper sector is expected to improve its profitability
It is reported that the Brazilian company Suzano, the world‘s largest pulp producer and exporter, recently announced that the price of its eucalyptus pulp in China will be reduced, which is the first time since the end of 2021.
The Huatai Securities Research Report stated that the improvement of the fundamentals of the paper industry may still be tortuous, and the catalyst for valuation restoration is emerging. With the further focus on “steady growth” in 2023, domestic demand is expected to usher in marginal improvement. Although the industry still needs to face the challenge of high production capacity growth in 2023, and the recovery of fundamentals may still be tortuous, but when the domestic demand is gradually improving, the opportunity for valuation restoration has appeared, and the paper industry is maintained. “Overweight” rating.
②In November last year, mobile phone shipments in the domestic market fell by 34.1%, and this year may return to positive growth
According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in November 2022, the domestic mobile phone shipments were 23.238 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. Among them, 5G mobile phones were 17.92 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.1%, accounting for 77.1% of mobile phone shipments in the same period. From January to November 2022, the total mobile phone shipments in the domestic market totaled 244 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. Among them, 5G mobile phone shipments were 191 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, accounting for 78.3% of mobile phone shipments during the same period.
According to the Guosheng Securities Research Report, after a short-term recovery in shipments in 2021, global smartphone shipments have experienced a second round of decline in shipments. According to the revision of IDC’s 2022 Q4 forecast data, global smartphone shipments were adjusted from an increase of 1.6% at the beginning of 2022 to a decline of about 9.1% at the end of the year, and the total shipments fell to about 1.22-1.24 billion units. It is expected that in 2023, with the alleviation of the impact of the global epidemic and the recovery of global consumption capacity, shipments in 2023 will increase by 2.8% year-on-year, and the total shipments will be about 1.26-1.27 billion units.
③ Last year, my country’s offshore wind power installed capacity ranked first in the world, and this year will be a big year for bidding
According to CCTV reports, in recent years, my country’s offshore wind power installed capacity has continued to grow. As of 2022, the cumulative installed capacity is expected to reach 32.5 million kilowatts, continuing to maintain the world‘s largest installed capacity of offshore wind power. my country’s offshore wind power has accelerated its development to the deep sea.
According to the research report of Huabao Securities, 2023 will be a big year for bidding. The scissors gap between high bidding and low installed capacity formed in 2021-2022 is expected to emerge with the release of the epidemic, the lifting of military control in Jiangsu, and the economical decline in costs. Due to the rapid convergence of factors, it is optimistic that the annual sea breeze installed capacity will exceed 12GW, and the year-on-year growth rate will exceed 100%.
④Silicon material prices continue to fall in the middle and downstream links or there may be excess profit margins
On January 4, EnergyTrend released the transaction price of silicon materials. This week, the domestic polysilicon price continued its downward trend since November. The lowest polysilicon price in the market has fallen to 148,000 yuan/ton-150,000 yuan/ton, and the average market price is about 175,000 yuan/ton to 173,000 yuan/ton.
The analysis believes that the downward price of the industrial chain is expected to stimulate the release of demand beyond expectations, and there may be excess profit margins in the middle and downstream links. The research report of Minsheng Securities stated that under the background of unshakable underlying logic, the decline in the price of silicon materials has driven the overall decline in the price of the industrial chain, which has stimulated the increase in the operating rate of downstream large power stations. In addition, the battery technology of the main chain is rapidly iterating, and new products of the auxiliary chain are actively launched. The current cost of photovoltaic electricity per kilowatt-hour has not bottomed out yet, and the conversion efficiency has not peaked yet. The industry is expected to continue to heat up. It is recommended to focus on photovoltaic EPC, tracking brackets, centralized inverters, green power operations and other links.