Source: Baocheng Futures Author: Baocheng Futures
Research report text
core point of view
【Shanghai Zinc】
The main contract of zinc fluctuated upward at night, and the shock weakened after diving in the morning. The basis spread widened and the monthly spread narrowed. Overseas macro continues to pick up, and the US dollar index is down, which is good for non-ferrous metals. Fundamentally, the current mining end remains loose, and the output of SMM zinc ingots in November exceeded the mid-month expectation, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. Last week, the output of the Mysteel sample galvanizing plant remained stable at a high level. The low level of the zinc ingot social warehouse is still slowly going out of the warehouse. The pattern of external strength and internal weakness continues, and it is recommended to hold 1-2 anti-arbitrage.
It is recommended to reverse
【Shanghai Copper】
The main copper contract fluctuated strongly at night, and oscillated around the 66,000 line after diving in the early trading. The monthly basis difference strengthened synchronously. The economic gap between Europe and the United States has narrowed, which has led to a downward pressure on the US dollar index, and the macro environment is favorable. The domestic epidemic has deteriorated again, which may have an impact on current demand, but the overall expectation is optimistic. From a technical point of view, the main force of copper in Shanghai has risen again after standing firm at the 64000 line. Against the background of weakening monthly spread, it is possible to hold more than one contract at 2302 per month.
It is recommended to hold more than one single
【Shanghai Nickel】
The main nickel contract rose and fell in the night market, and stabilized around 217,500 after diving in the morning. The monthly basis difference strengthened synchronously. At present, it is strong on the outside and weak on the inside, and Lunni drives Shanghai Nickel up. The nickel price of more than 200,000 yuan in the industry makes the downstream alternative consumption obvious. On the news, the impact of the production reduction of the Nova nickel mine in Western Australia is good for nickel prices. On the technical side, the price of nickel has broken through the previous high of 210,000, and the concentration of long funds is obvious, and the short-term upward momentum is strong.
Homeopathic short and long
1. Industry dynamics
Zinc:
On December 12, the Mysteel zinc ingot stockpile was 42,400 tons, which was 1,500 tons compared with last Monday’s stockpile, and compared with last Thursday’s stockpile of 1,300 tons.
copper:
On December 12, Mysteel reported that global mining company Anglo American Plc on Friday lowered its 2023 copper production forecast due to lower ore grades at Chilean mines and lowered the upper limit of its 2022 production target.
nickel:
On December 8, according to SMM statistics, the national output of electrolytic nickel in November 2022 totaled 14,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.91%. It is estimated that the national output of electrolytic nickel in December will be 15,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.47%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.08%.
2. Spot price list
3. Related charts
Zinc:
copper:
nickel:
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