The Spring Festival in 2023 is approaching, and liquor will also usher in the traditional peak season for sales. Recently, a reporter from “Securities Daily” visited relevant terminals in the Beijing area and learned that the demand for high-end liquor is strong, and it still maintains a certain degree of enthusiasm in the market. No one cares about” dilemma.
“Most of the best-selling brands in our store are Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu. Especially when the Spring Festival is approaching, most consumers choose these types.” A staff member of a tobacco hotel in Dongcheng District, Beijing told the “Securities Daily” reporter. The number of customers buying wine in the store has increased significantly. “But on the whole, the sales of most low-end liquors are not optimistic.”
In 2022, affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic, the liquor market will experience sluggish sales and price inversions, and it will be difficult for the channel side to hide its “anxiety”. Entering the closing stage at the end of the year, what is the current terminal sales situation in the liquor market? What kind of Spring Festival market will usher in?
The popularity of high-end liquor continues unabated
Sales of mid-to-low-end products are relatively deserted
A reporter from “Securities Daily” recently visited a number of large supermarkets, tobacco hotels, and liquor chain stores in Beijing and found that high-end liquor has always maintained a certain degree of circulation.
In the China Resources Vanguard Supermarket located in Heshenghui, Chaoyang District, the reporter noticed that on the shelves of the liquor area, most of the products placed in the C position are mid-to-high-end products, including 53-degree Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fen Liquor, etc., are priced at more than 1,000 yuan. On the edge of the shelf, there are products with prices ranging from 500 yuan to 1,000 yuan.
The salesperson of the special area told the reporter of Securities Daily, “The Spring Festival is the peak season for liquor sales. Recently, many consumers have come to inquire about the price and look at the goods. At present, we have not received any notice of sales activities related to the Spring Festival, but in the past two days We will put up shelves in the center of the supermarket and launch related liquor exhibits.” According to him, the price of high-end liquor doesn’t fluctuate much throughout the year, and only during traditional holidays like Spring Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival, some products will have activities.
Afterwards, the reporter learned from many tobacco hotels in Dongcheng District that the sales of high-end liquor still maintain a certain level of enthusiasm. Among them, regarding the sales performance of 53% Feitian Moutai during the Spring Festival, the market has a strong “bullish” atmosphere.
“The price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai is 2,800 yuan per bottle, which is quite a bargain. However, it may rise a little closer to the Spring Festival, and it is expected to rise to 3,100 yuan per bottle.” A salesperson of a tobacco hotel told the “Securities Daily” reporter.
Compared with the relatively tight market conditions of high-end liquor, the reporter found during the interview that the sales of most low-end liquor are relatively deserted.
“The overall sales situation this year is not very good.” The staff of a tobacco hotel told reporters with a little helplessness. In the store, the reporter noticed that many wines priced below 500 yuan had an active price, and the words “some wines were sold out for sale” were written on the door.
In addition, in an underground supermarket in a shopping mall in Xizhimen, the reporter found that labels with activities such as “buy one get one free”, “buy A get B free”, “rebate 40 yuan on purchases” and other activities can be seen everywhere on liquor shelves.
Growth is a long-term trend
The dynamic sales of the liquor industry will gradually recover
Under the impact of the epidemic, the backlog of inventory pressure at the channel side surfaced. According to the “2022 Annual Status and Development Report of Wine Merchants”, in the first half of this year, about 39.7% of wine merchants had inventories of more than 5 months, and 33.6% of wine merchants had inventories of 3 to 5 months. The inventory cycle was significantly longer. At the same time, judging from the semi-annual reports of wine companies, some second-tier wine companies are facing further inventory pressure.
Faced with inventory pressure, some dealers and operators began to sell goods at low prices and withdraw funds. However, some people in the industry believe that it will take a long time to digest the inventory of the channel, and the large single products of famous wine will be digested first. For some small and medium-sized brands, inventory digestion is not so easy. Most of them are facing financial pressure and survival pressure. A small number of companies may be unable to withstand the pressure and leave the market.
The industry believes that the current wine industry is in the “darkness before dawn”.
Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Alcohol Industry Association, said a few days ago that in the past three years, under the superimposed influence of the epidemic situation, economic trends, and consumption trends, and under the background of the release of the industry’s own contradictions, the wine industry is undergoing changes and adjustments. However, the trend of steady progress in China‘s wine industry has not changed, and it still continues the long cycle of structural prosperity. The overall efficiency continues to improve, and it has strong industrial resilience and strong development vitality. At present, with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the expansion of domestic demand, and consumption as the first, the long-term wine industry is about to usher in a new round of strategic opportunities.
Zeng Congqin, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Wuliangye Group (Shares) Co., Ltd., also made the latest judgment on the liquor industry: the structural prosperity of the liquor industry is accelerating. As a fully market-oriented long-cycle industry, growth is a long-term trend.
The CITIC Construction Investment Research Report pointed out that with the recovery of confidence and demand, it is expected that the dynamic sales of the liquor industry will gradually recover in 2023, showing a trend of lows and highs. Liquor companies with the advantages of systematic operation capabilities will continue to gain market share.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told the Securities Daily reporter, “Affected by the epidemic, liquor consumption has been relatively suppressed. With the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, liquor and other consumption will gradually pick up. The profitability of liquor and Brand value will be more prominent.”
However, some people in the industry believe that looking forward to the development of the wine industry in 2023, the “good start” may not be as smooth as expected, but according to the big cycle, China‘s wine industry will return to a normal growth track in the second half of next year.