MILANO – Great focus on the markets for resumption of trading after Black Friday, during which it seemed to rewind the tape back to the beginning of the pandemic: the emergence of the South African variant immediately triggered a correction on the stock markets, which on the other hand are trading at all-time highs, with the money going towards safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds of the most solid countries.
According to some experts, there is no need to despair, as argued for example by Allianz Global Investor according to which “the markets are in good health” and are supported by the fact that we are “in the season of the year traditionally more favorable to the stock exchanges. therefore good reasons to think that the positive trend will continue also in the last weeks of 2021, as happens above all in the years of strong performance “. The fact of the news of the last few hours, however, is that the variant is popping up a bit all over Europe and other narrow ones are facing the freedom to move: they are expected in Great Britain, from Tuesday. This is why volatility is expected to be very high on the stock markets, while government bonds have benefited from the fact that the new waves of contagions are pushing away the moment of the squeeze by the central banks. Treasury rates, US bonds, fell on Friday in a way that had not happened in a single session since the first months of the pandemic. Bets on the Fed’s first rate hike suddenly switched to June to September.
Covid returns to scare the stock markets: Europe is the epicenter of fear
by Francesco Guerrera
To the unknowns on the stock market is added the wait for the meeting of theOpec+, the cartel of crude oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and extended to friendly countries such as Russia. After release of stocks by an important group of consumer states (China, USA, United Kingdom, Japan, India among others) to lower prices, crude oil actually lost 10% on Black Friday, when the resurgence of Covid insinuated deep doubts about the recovery and therefore about energy consumption. According to the expectations of the experts, if previously it was feared that OPEC + would slow down the increases in production to give a clear response to the aggressive move of those who freed up the stocks, now the evaluations on the pandemic evolution are the masters. However, as it is still too early to have a precise picture, caution is expected.
The meeting on December 2 will still be crucial. The oil market has seen a rise in prices in recent months due to strong demand, linked to the economic recovery, while production has remained virtually unchanged and therefore inadequate to meet demand. Indeed, OPEC + decided last month to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day, a move deemed insufficient by several industrialized countries. OPEC expects the release of US stocks to generate a supply surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day and has therefore sounded the alarm claiming that it will eventually inflate the market. The coordinated cross-country release could bring a total of 70-80 million barrels to the market, according to analysts. Of course, if a real retaliation were to arrive, with the cut in production levels to reduce the quantity of oil in circulation again, it would be an open tug-of-war with very practical consequences on fuel prices, on heating costs, on the inflation and therefore on monetary policies.
On the international front, there is also expectation for the hearings that Jerome Powell, just reconfirmed at the helm of the Federal Reserve, he will hold between Tuesday and Monday in Congress. The intervention will serve to understand how strong the voice of those who, among the governors of the US central institution, ask to accelerate the pace of tapering or if the spread of the new coronavirus variant cannot suggest greater caution.
For Italy, Fitch’s rating is expected on Friday. According to analysts, the classification agency should still leave its vote unchanged. In the meantime the tax decree should land in the Chamber in the Senate, while the examination of the maneuver will begin in the commission.
Here are the events in the breaking latest news agenda:
MONDAY 29 NOVEMBER
– Snam: presentation of the strategic plan.
– Istat: producer prices in October and in the third quarter.
– Cisl: initiative on young people with the general secretary, Luigi Sbarra, and the Minister of Labor, Andrea Orlando.
– ECB: lectio magistralis by President Christine Lagarde at the Carignano Theater in Turin.
– Tax: table at the Mef with the trade unions on the reform.
– Eni: CEO Claudio Descalzi speaks at Think Thank Bruegel on the “Role of innovation in decarbonization”.
– Fed: President Jerome Powell speaks at the New York innovation event.
– Spain: inflation in November.
– Germany: inflation in November.
TUESDAY 30 NOVEMBER
– Istat: income statements in the third quarter.
– Istat: inflation in November.
– Istat: turnover in services in the third quarter.
– Svimez: 2021 Report.
– Anita: assembly. Among others, the Minister of Infrastructure and Sustainable Mobility, Enrico Giovannini, participates.
– Confartigianato: assembly. Among others, the Minister of Economic Development, Giancarlo Giorgetti, participates.
– Energy: event on “Work and energy for a sustainable transition”. Participants, among others, the Prime Minister, Mario Draghi; the Minister of Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani; the Minister of Economic Development, Giancarlo Giorgetti; the Minister of Labor, Andrea Orlando; the general secretary of the CGIL, Maurizio Landini; the general secretary of the CISL, Luigi Sbarra; the general secretary of UIL, Pierpaolo Bombardieri.
– Germany: unemployment rate in November.
– Eurozone: inflation in November.
– USA: consumer confidence in November.
– Fed: Hearing of President Jerome Powell in Congress.
WEDNESDAY 1 DECEMBER
– Confindustria: Confindustria Brindisi assembly. The national president, Carlo Bonomi, participates.
– Mise: hearing of Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti at Copasir.
– Enea: Annual report on energy efficiency.
Participants, among others, are the Minister for Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, and the Minister for Equal Opportunities, Elena Bonetti.
– Ocse: economic outlook.
– Germany: retail sales in October.
– Manufacturing SMEs: Spain, Italy, Germany, Eurozone, GB and USA data.
– USA: new non-farm employees in the private sector in November.
– USA: ISM manufacturing index in November.
– USA: weekly oil stocks.
– Fed: Hearing of President Jerome Powell in Congress.
– Fed: Beige Book.
THURSDAY 2 DECEMBER
– Oil: Opec + meeting.
– Istat: employed and unemployed in October.
– Febaf: Rome investment Forum 2021. The participation of, among others, the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni; the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco; the president of Unicredit, Pier Carlo Padoan.
– Assofondipensione: annual meeting.
– USA: new weekly applications for unemployment benefits.
FRIDAY 3 DECEMBER
– Fitch: Italy rating review.
– Istat: prospects for the Italian economy 2021-2022.
– Censis: Report on the social situation of the country.
– Services and composite SMEs: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Eurozone, Gb, USA.
– USA: new employees and unemployment rate in November.
– USA: Non-manufacturing ISM index.
– USA: orders to industry in October.
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