Original title: The rise of the “Mesozoic” power of the fund industry. The three generations of fund managers, “old”, “middle” and “new”, have different styles. The performance of the new generation is like a roller coaster.
The passive equity funds with the best performance this year are mainly concentrated in procyclical, while the active equity funds with the best performance this year are mainly concentrated in new energy.
Recently, the three quarterly reports of the fund have successively disclosed that everyone has begun to count the money made by the fund in the first three quarters of this year against the positions of fund managers.
I didn’t know the result, but I was taken aback.
Among the active equity funds, as of September 30, 2021, the highest return since the beginning of the year exceeded 90%, and 17 funds returned more than 70%.
The problem is that there is an unexpected result.
When competing for the TOP20 earnings in the first three quarters, the performance of the “old”, “medium” and “new” generations of public fund managers ranged from good to bad: new generation> mesozoic> old generation.
The 21st Century Capital Institute refined three sets of data:
In the first three quarters of this year, the top 20 income, the new generation of fund managers (fund managers less than 3 years) managed 14 funds, accounting for 70%;
Mesozoic fund managers (fund manager years between 3 and 7 years) manage 6 funds, accounting for 30%;
Old generation fund managers (fund managers have more than 7 years of experience), 0, and the best performance ranked 29th.
The group of active equity fund managers who have come out of this year’s performance are mainly concentrated on the new energy track.
Our research found that the sectors that saw the best gains in A-shares this year were new energy and pro-cyclical sectors. Passive and active equity funds each divided one area: passive equity funds with the best performance this year were mainly concentrated in pro-cyclical performance, and this year’s performance The best active equity funds are mainly concentrated in new energy.
Therefore, the arena with the highest performance of active equity funds this year is mainly concentrated in new energy. In fact, the third quarterly report shows that the management scale of fund managers investing in new energy has generally skyrocketed, especially the new generation of fund managers. Comparing the fund size at the beginning of the year, at the end of the third quarter, this year’s outstanding fund manager Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund’s Cui Chenlong fund management scale soared 207 times, from 112 million yuan at the beginning of the year to 23.279 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter! The scale of Shicheng Fund Management of SDIC UBS Fund has soared 17 times, from 1.174 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 21.287 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter!
Everyone’s “long-term” seems to be just talking, privately, they are quietly adding up funds with outstanding short-term performance!
This article will look at the cases of “old”, “medium” and “new” three-generation celebrity fund managers to see their different investment characteristics when new energy competes for this year’s highest honor, and discuss which one in the unpredictable market The market style is suitable for which type of new energy fund to invest in.
Different new energy investment styles of three generations of fund managers
The performance of the new energy sector this year is very dazzling. The new energy sector started in April and the new energy index has risen by nearly 70% so far.
For this emerging new energy sector, the “old”, “medium” and “new” three generations of public fund managers have different investment styles.
Most of the “old generation” star fund managers manage all-market funds. They often use a “beauty pageant” approach to compare industries and select new energy stocks. For example, they were optimistic about consumption last year and new energy this year. When choosing new energy stocks, I like top-tier leading stocks the most.
The “Mesozoic” has run out of a group of star fund managers who are good at new energy allocation. The scale of their new energy funds is already very large, many of which exceed 10 billion. They prefer to adopt a prudent investment method, such as holding new energy funds. Leading energy stocks or diversified investments, so even in the volatile new energy industry, their funds can often achieve stable returns and relatively small drawdowns.
The new generation of fund managers’ investment style in new energy is relatively radical. They tend to prefer the more flexible upstream resource stocks or midstream second-tier small tickets, because these stocks are more flexible. When the new energy market is in the upward channel, their performance can be Yiqi Juechen has far outperformed the star fund managers of the “old generation” and the “Mesozoic”. There is only one problem with this investment style, which will be very obvious when retracement, so the return is as exciting as a “roller coaster”.
The new generation: choose flexible votes
If risk assessment is to be conducted, the new generation of fund managers are generally a group of people with a “higher risk appetite”. In order to achieve good performance, they are willing to take more risks.
When it comes to investing in new energy, Cui Chenlong and Shi Cheng are very representative of the “new generation”.
What they have in common this year is that they have invested in more flexible stocks in new energy, so they achieved good results when the new energy surged. However, the investment styles of the two are very different.
Cui Chenlong has only 1.27 years as a fund manager. As a new fund manager, his fund management scale was only 100 million at the beginning of this year.
He is equipped with more mid-tier second-tier small tickets. It may be because the new energy is in the upward channel. Compared with the first-tier leading stocks, the second-tier new energy stocks have a chance to repair their valuations and rise faster after the first-tier new energy leading stocks have skyrocketed.
This year, the new energy fund managed by Cui Chenlong performed very well. As of September 30, Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utilities ranked first in this year’s fund income list with 91.24%, and Qianhai Kaiyuan New Economy A Fund ranked fourth with 80.95%.
Judging from the three quarterly reports, Cui Chenlong’s overall stock position in Qianhai Open Source Utilities is not much different from the interim report. However, the proportion of Hong Kong stocks increased significantly, from 7.9% at the end of the second quarter to 36.47% at the end of the third quarter.
In the third quarter, the top ten major stocks of Qianhai Kaiyuan Utilities entered a number of Hong Kong stocks, including China Resources Power, Huaneng Power International, China Power, China General Nuclear Power New Energy, and Xintian Green Energy. The five new stocks all belong to the “public utility” industry, and they are also the only five stocks that belong to the “public utility” stocks in its heavy position. Cui Chenlong’s intention to adjust the position is not difficult to guess. It seems that he intends to “justify” the Qianhai Open Source Public Utilities Fund. After all, the top ten stocks of the fund before are all new energy, and the fund’s name is not consistent with the investment direction of new energy.
At the same time, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Xingyuan Material, Penghui Energy, and Rongjie withdrew from the top ten heavy holdings of Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utilities Fund.
From the perspective of position adjustment, Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utilities exits mostly small stocks. For example, Risen Energy and Penghui Energy have a total market value of more than 10 billion, and Xingyuan Material and Rongjie have a total market value of more than 30 billion. Most of the “public utility” stocks that have entered the top ten heavyweight stocks are large stocks. For example, China Resources Power and Huaneng Power International have a market value of over 100 billion.
In fact, the scale of Qianhai Open Source Public Utilities Fund rose from 4.2 billion at the end of the second quarter to 16.6 billion at the end of the third quarter, and its investment style had to be adjusted due to its larger scale. Because it can no longer make frequent adjustments, nor can it hold a stock that is too small, otherwise the stock price will fluctuate greatly.
Shi Cheng, another new-generation fund manager who invests in new energy, has a fund manager’s life span of 2.59 years. A major feature of the fund he manages is investing in new energy upstream resource stocks, which makes the relevant stock prices skyrocket when resource prices soar. The fund can rise 140% in 5 months, which can ruin the foundation of the people. However, when the fund is bad, the fund There can be more than 20 points of correction in a month.
Take the SDIC UBS Advanced Manufacturing Fund managed by Shi Cheng as an example. The scale of the fund was 793 million yuan at the end of the second quarter and increased to 8.142 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter, which was 10 times the previous amount. The fund’s income in the first three quarters was 72.24%.
The net worth of SDIC UBS New Energy Hybrid Fund is like sitting on a roller coaster. It took off from the low net worth of 1.7529 on March 24, and rose by about 140% to reach the net worth 4.3061 on September 15. Tumbled 24%, and its net value on October 12 was 3.2084 yuan.
The Citizens who bought this fund said that it was similar to riding a “roller coaster” and it was very exciting.
The third quarterly report showed that Shi Cheng made major adjustments to the heavy holdings of SDIC UBS New Energy Hybrid Fund.
From the second quarter report, the shares of SDIC UBS New Energy Hybrid Fund accounted for 95.73%, and the shares of the third quarter report accounted for 94.78%, which is a decline.
From the perspective of position concentration, the top ten in the second quarter report has a concentration of 84.95% in the holdings of heavy-duty stocks, and the third quarter report is reduced to 53.63%. The holdings are somewhat dispersed.
SDIC UBS New Energy Hybrid Fund’s top ten stocks at the end of the third quarter, in addition to the decrease in the proportion, ten stocks replaced seven, of which, the first major stock at the end of the second quarter, Ningde Times from the list of top ten stocks Excluding the medium, this may be an operation in response to the ups and downs in the stock price of the new energy sector.
On the whole, Shicheng reduced the concentration of positions, and at the same time tilted the direction of positions toward the raw material end and the downstream end.
According to the reporter’s understanding, the new generation of fund managers invest in new energy. Generally, the new generation of fund managers will take some positions to make flexible stocks. For example, in July, they participated in a wave of lithium resources investment in order to strive for better returns. It will not be as conservative as the operation of the star fund managers of the Mesozoic and older generations with huge scale and performance burden. Therefore, when the new energy is going smoothly and the new energy market is on the rise, it is very suitable to buy these aggressive “new generation” management. Of funds, they are suitable for use as a band.
Mesozoic: stability is important
Mesozoic is a master of investing in new energy and has enjoyed a high reputation in the market. The most famous of them are Zhao Yi of ABC-America Fund and Feng Mingyuan of Cinda Australia Bank Fund.
Both of them are leaders in investing in new energy, with a management scale of between 30 billion and 40 billion. This year’s performance is good, and among the new energy funds, their drawdowns are relatively small, and the holding experience is quite good.
But the investment styles of the two are also significantly different. Feng Mingyuan has diversified holdings. A fund can be allocated hundreds of stocks, each with a little bit. Zhao Yi is the first-tier leading stock in the midstream of new energy. He is reluctant to touch the resource stocks that have soared and plummeted upstream of the new energy, as well as the small votes in the new energy.
Feng Mingyuan, the star fund manager of Cinda Australia Bank Fund, managed 29.2 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter and rose to 36.8 billion at the end of the third quarter. He manages 9 funds, and his investment is mainly in the fields of new energy, technology and so on.
Feng Mingyuan’s representative fund is Cinda Australia Bank New Energy Industry Fund, which increased from 11.554 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter to 14.8 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter. As of the end of the third quarter, 41.54% of revenue this year.
Feng Mingyuan adopts diversified holdings, but they are all concentrated in the hard technology fields, such as new energy, electronics, communications, etc., and he has allocated all the better stocks in this direction. The semi-annual report shows that Feng Mingyuan’s Cinda Australia Bank New Energy Industry Fund holds 398 stocks in a dispersed manner. The third quarterly report shows that the fund’s top ten heavyweight stocks accounted for only 22.42% of the fund’s net value.
It can be seen that Feng Mingyuan’s holdings are very diversified. This also makes Feng Mingyuan’s fund stable unless there is a systemic risk in the new energy sector, with small drawdowns, and because each stock’s ratio is very low, it is easy to enter and exit the fund. The timing ability is also very strong.
But this characteristic also makes Feng Mingyuan’s performance in Shigekura New Energy’s star fund in the third quarter not a challenge.
Another star fund manager Zhao Hao dominated the top 1-4 of the fund income list last year.
Zhao Hao’s management scale in the second quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, which rose to 37.8 billion in the third quarter. He managed 4 funds, representing that the fund is the theme of ABC-CA New Energy. It was established in August 2019 and the scale was 19.9 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, it rose to 25.9 billion, and the revenue for the first three quarters was 56.09%.
Judging from the third quarterly report, the third quarterly report of ABC-Agriculture New Energy managed by Zhao Yu showed that it significantly increased its holdings of Ningde Times to 3,962,900 shares, which is still the largest heavyweight stock. Zhao Hao also increased his holdings of Enjie shares and Longji shares; in the same period, the top ten heavy-duty stocks newly entered Jiayuan Technology, while Yingliu shares withdrew. Compared with the second quarter, 9 of the fund’s top ten heavy stocks remained unchanged, and Zhao Yu’s heavy stocks changed little.
Zhao Hao’s ABC-Agriculture New Energy concentrated its heavy holdings of stocks. In the third quarter, the top 10 heavy holdings accounted for 66% of the fund’s net value. There has been no major change in the heavy holdings from 2019 to now.
Zhao Yu’s characteristic is to select the best votes, hold them for a long time, and the heavy stocks have not changed much. Therefore, Zhao Yu’s fund is relatively stable in valuation, that is, the actual net value and the software’s net value are estimated every day. The difference is 0.01 yuan.
In general, the new energy funds managed by the Mesozoic star fund managers are suitable for long-term holding. Their net worth is relatively stable, and their performance may not be as good as that of the new generation funds, but the volatility and drawdown are relatively small, and it will be more comfortable to hold for a long time. . If you are optimistic about new energy and plan to hold it for a long time, you can consider the new energy fund managed by the Mesozoic.
Older generation: based on pageant ideas
Most of the older generation star fund managers managed all-market funds.
They like to make comparisons between industries, based on the idea of a beauty pageant, to consider where the economy will go next year. They may relocate this industry this year and relocate to another industry next year. The sentence “There is no set force for soldiers, and water is impermanent.”
This year, many star fund managers expressed their optimism about new energy in the third quarterly report.
For example, from the perspective of the allocation in the third quarter, Fu Pengbo’s fund focuses on the allocation of TMT, chemical building materials, new energy and other sectors, and the portfolio also includes pharmaceutical and consumer targets.
He said in the outlook of the third quarterly report that if the investment time dimension is extended, the investment opportunities related to changes in the energy structure, and the investment opportunities of “specialized and new” companies in the advanced manufacturing industry, need to strengthen research and focus.
Liu Gesong also stated in the third quarterly report that increasing the proportion of green energy in the production process in the future has become an irreversible trend. long”. From the perspective of competition, the domestic new energy industry already has a “global comparative advantage”, so Liu Gesong increased his asset allocation in photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and energy storage in the third quarter.
In general, the older generation of star fund managers prefer top-tier stocks.
For example, Liu Gesong’s GF Shuangqing Upgrade Fund’s top ten stocks at the end of the third quarter include Longi, a leading photovoltaic upstream stock, Sungrow, a leading photovoltaic downstream stock, and Yiwei Lithium, a leading upstream resource stock for new energy vehicles, all of which are in the new energy segment. The first-line leader.
Another obvious example is Yang Delong, the chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund. The Qianhai Kaiyuan Clean Energy Fund under his management will be allocated at the end of the third quarter: 40% with photovoltaics + 40% with new energy vehicles + 20% Of wind power.
The new energy stocks it allocates are all leaders, including Longji, Yiwei Lithium, Enjie, CATL, BYD, Goldwind Technology, etc.
Yang Delong explained why new energy is equipped with leading stocks. “The new energy industry is currently in the emerging stage of brutal expansion and has not yet entered the fierce competition stage. They are not the same. They have the strength and the probability of survival is much higher. So from the perspective of safety, the probability of throwing the leading stocks on thunder is small.”
The older generation of star fund managers are risk-averse. They would rather have lower returns than take risks. Those who agree with this concept are suitable for this type of fund.
(Author: Pang Huawei Editor: Li Xinjiang)
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