On March 15, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and moved lower. It fell sharply during the session and accelerated in the late session. It fell nearly 5% and fell below 3,100 points, the largest single-day drop in two years. The Shenzhen Composite Index closed down 4.36%, and the ChiNext Index It turned red for a while, down 2.55% throughout the day, and the weighted sectors such as coal and real estate fell sharply.
slump · reason
Domestic epidemic, Russian-Ukrainian conflict causes plummet
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is regarded by many institutions as the biggest “black swan” event this year, which has triggered turmoil in the global financial market, and the A-share market has also been affected. Coupled with the recent outbreak of the epidemic in many places in China, investors’ risk aversion has heated up again. In the final analysis, the continuous adjustment of the market is caused by the resonance of internal and external uncertain factors, especially the emotional shock caused by external factors is still difficult to say.
In terms of internal factors, the financial data in February was lower than expected, reflecting that the “triple pressure” faced by the real economy is still relatively large in the short term, and the epidemic has spread in many places, causing concerns about the recovery of consumption and the sustainability of export growth. Investors expect There is an expected deviation from the policy orientation of stabilizing growth. As analyzed by Chongyang Investment, the deep-seated reason for market adjustment is that market players lack confidence in the economic outlook.
In terms of external factors, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the most uncertain event that makes the market nervous. At present, its impact on the A-share market is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is the emotional impact. On March 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to a minimum of 3147.68 points, which was regarded as a concentrated release of panic. Many institutional sources believe that the short-term impact of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict on A shares has basically ended. The second is the fundamental impact. Due to the nature of Russia and Ukraine as resource countries, the conflict has intensified the rise in the prices of crude oil and other commodities, resulting in a surge in commodity prices and a drop in stock asset prices, and pushes up global inflation expectations, bringing a certain degree of import to my country. type of inflationary pressures.
Plunge · market outlook
The bottom grinding time of this wheel may be further extended
Under the main influence of geopolitical “black swan” events, the “sentiment market” characteristics of the stock market are more obvious. When prudence and short-term risk aversion dominate, investors pay more attention to and magnify negative factors, which can easily lead to unilateral fluctuations. For example, focusing on the deviation of domestic and foreign policies, but ignoring the difference between internal and external cycles, and focusing on the advantages of self-control; worrying about the prospects of economic growth, but ignoring the clear orientation of stable growth, and the policy is exerting force; focusing on the risk of stagflation, but looking at commodities The emphasis is on “inflation”, while the emphasis on resource stocks is “stagnation”.
Founder Securities believes that the market’s expectations for fundamentals need to be adjusted urgently, and the time for this round of bottom grinding may be affected and further extended. In the medium term, the repeated domestic epidemics, shrinking real estate demand, and unstable overseas situation will further impact domestic fundamental expectations and capital risk appetite. Affected by this, the bottom period of the A-share market may be further extended, and more stability needs to be observed. The effect of growth policies. Considering that the market has retraced by an average of about 20%-30% since the high point in 2021, the current valuation level is generally in a relatively reasonable range, and the possibility of an upward rebound in the short term cannot be ruled out. However, the medium- and long-term effects of the above factors are more worthy of vigilance. Overall, the macro economy and capital market will face a difficult environment in 2022. It is necessary to reduce the investment return expectation in 2022 to a certain extent, and choose industries and industries with relatively high prosperity. companies, while guarding against industries and companies whose fundamentals have clearly deteriorated.
Plunge · Opportunity
Balanced configuration closely follows the three main lines and two themes
Huaan Securities said that during the wrestling process of internal policy strengthening and external risk control, market fluctuations have been amplified, and the allocation should be balanced to respond, and it looks forward to the third stage of growth in medium-term investment opportunities. On the whole, the industry configuration continues three main lines and two major themes. Main line 1: The stable growth sector with strong policy certainty is the least constrained by external risks and can be used as a ballast for short-term balanced response. Pay attention to new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation, and new power grid construction, as well as real estate and banks where the recent economic reversal has begun. Main line 2: Do a good job in the layout of opportunities for the third stage of medium-term growth to extract the valuation market. First, the growth structure will continue to be strong, and focus on dual carbon, new energy (vehicles), wind and solar storage, and electronic semiconductors. The second is the defense industry and computers that have the potential to benefit from valuation diffusion. Main line 3: In terms of consumption, continue to be optimistic about the overall opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector catalyzed by multiple positives, and focus on opportunities related to dairy products, planting industries and fertilizers with smoother price increases in the medium and long term; in terms of themes, continue to focus on investment opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Guosheng Securities said that as the domestic “steady growth” policy end is appropriately advanced and inflation pressures are under control, the Shanghai Index, which is at a relatively low valuation in history, is expected to be desensitized to external disturbances and usher in a turnaround. It is recommended to maintain a high value in investment. Allocation ratio for growth. In terms of operation, it is still necessary to control the overall position before the market can effectively break through. It is suitable for low absorption. “Stable growth” and “recovery in the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry” will become the main logic driving the operation of the market, focusing on traditional infrastructure such as building materials, as well as bancassurance For low-valued sectors such as these, it is recommended to appropriately deploy themed sectors such as the digital economy, the reform of central enterprises, and fully adjusted new energy guidance based on performance and cost-effectiveness.
Disk analysis
Northbound funds sold net for seven consecutive days
Yesterday afternoon, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes fell in panic, both fell by more than 4%. The Shanghai stock index hit a low of 3063 points during the session and closed at the lowest point. , down 2.55%; the total turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan. As of the close of A shares, statistics show that the total net sales of northbound funds are 16.025 billion yuan, of which the net sales of Shanghai Stock Connect are 8.864 billion yuan, and the net sales of Shenzhen Stock Connect are 7.161 billion yuan. Northbound funds maintained net sales for 7 consecutive days, with a total net sales of 66.756 billion yuan.
plate click
Only the concept of electronic ID card rises
As far as the sector is concerned, the decline in the coal sector narrowed to about 5% in the morning, and in the afternoon coal, real estate, steel, home furnishing, oil, electricity and other sectors further fell, the coal sector fell by more than 8%, and the steel and real estate sectors fell. More than 7%, oil, electricity, gas supply and heating sectors fell more than 6%;
As far as the concept plate is concerned, except for the rise in the concept of electronic ID cards in the two cities, the rest of the plates all fell.
settle accounts
A shares evaporated 14.95 trillion yuan during the year and lost 75,000 yuan per capita
Up to now, the Shanghai Index, Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index have fallen by 15.82%, 22.35% and 24.62% respectively during the year. On December 31, 2021, the total market value of A shares was 97.85 trillion yuan. After the market closed today, the total market value of A shares was 82.90 trillion yuan. That is to say, during the year, the total market value of A shares evaporated by 14.95 trillion yuan. If you invest in A shares Calculated by 200 million people, the per capita loss is 75,000 yuan.
What is the concept of 14.95 trillion? Judging from the recently released GDP data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country in 2021, the total GDP of Guangdong Province has reached 12.44 trillion yuan.
The mud and sand are all down, and the decline of individual stocks is also quite tragic, and even a lot of them are cut in half. Since the beginning of the year, among the 4,748 listed companies trading on the A-share Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and the North Exchange, 4,153 listed companies have recorded declines, accounting for 87.46%. Miserable, down 57.98%. Investors who hold these stocks are miserable. According to statistics from upstream journalists, nearly 300,000 investors hold the above stocks.
Foresight
Who can play the savior of the global stock market?
JPMorgan: Pension Funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds
From Asian stocks to U.S. stocks, since March, the global stock index has almost snowballed all the way down. Geopolitical conflicts, the threat of inflation, the resurgence of the epidemic, and a series of news “storms” almost made the world‘s major stock indexes unable to escape the “claw” of bad events. And when the major central banks are stepping into the interest rate hike cycle, who can play the savior of the global stock market?
JPMorgan’s recent research appears to have found a “savior”. Institutional funds could give global stocks a much-needed technical rebound as the first quarter draws to a close, according to the bank’s forecast.
Large institutional investors such as global pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are a stalwart of the global investment community, often adjusting market exposure at the end of each quarter to comply with strict allocation constraints between stocks and bonds.
Although their holding portfolios are generally held in the medium and long term, if the market value of stocks in a certain region or the market value of all market stocks in the portfolio is lower than or higher than the allocation requirements due to market fluctuations, a rebalancing action is required. It is adjusted on a quarterly basis. Of course, bonds operate on the same principle.
“In terms of buying equities, the biggest rebalancing of 2020 is likely right now,” said JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
He predicts that the global stock market is expected to usher in at least $100 billion and as much as $230 billion in capital inflows, which will push the market up 5%-10%.
This is not without precedent. Global stock markets took a hit in March 2020 at the start of the pandemic, with portfolio equity write-downs as high as $850 billion, which then sparked a buying frenzy that helped the S&P 500 rise in the month since up 13%.Newspaper comprehensive Return to Sohu, see more
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