Home » The Shanghai Index hits 3100 points for 5 consecutive days, or there are still differences – yqqlm

The Shanghai Index hits 3100 points for 5 consecutive days, or there are still differences – yqqlm

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(Original title: Shanghai Index 5 consecutive Yangs hit the 3100-point market or there are still differences)

Financial Associated Press, May 15 (Editor Zhao Liang), A-shares continued their strong performance this Friday, market funds focused on the main line of “post-epidemic recovery”, and the real estate and auto sectors also set off a rising limit, driving the Shanghai Stock Exchange to hit 3,100 points during the session. With the end of the index on Friday, the market has gone out of 5 consecutive positives this week. The Shanghai Composite Index reported 3084.28 points, a weekly increase of 2.76%, and a rebound of 7.7% in the past 10 days; the ChiNext Index reported 2358.16 points, a weekly increase of 5.04%, nearly 10% The daily rebound was 11.11%.

Social financing data in April may be exhausted

Despite the strength in short-term indices, social finance data for April, released after Friday’s close, came in sharply below expectations. Specifically, the new social financing was 910.2 billion yuan, the previous value was 4.65 trillion yuan; the social financing stock was 326.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; the new RMB loans were 645.4 billion yuan, the previous value was 3.13 trillion yuan; M2 increased year-on-year 10.5%, the previous value was 9.7%; M1 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 4.7%; M0 increased by 11.4% year-on-year.

For this data, the current market analysts’ interpretations are as much as negative, but they have not shown optimistic expectations.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, said that social financing was significantly lower than market expectations mainly due to credit drag. The new RMB loans in April were 361.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of more than 920 billion yuan, or related to the repeated epidemics and other disturbances.The worst of the economic boom may be over.

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Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that at present, the time when the current round of epidemics had the greatest impact on the economy may have passed.However, it will take time for loan demand in the real economy to recover.In the follow-up, while maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, monetary policy may support the real economy in the following three aspects: First, promote the market-oriented reform of deposit interest rates, reduce the cost of bank deposits, and guide corporate loan interest rates to fall. The second is to accelerate the implementation of structural tools, support green fields, technological innovation, inclusive elderly care and other fields that are in line with the direction of high-quality development, and actively promote the issuance of medium and long-term loans in key areas. The third is to support weak links in the real economy and industries severely affected by the epidemic. If the difficulties of market players further increase, or refer to the experience in 2020 and launch a larger-scale rediscount policy to provide targeted liquidity support.

Market sentiment remains cautious

Stock index futures have always been criticized by the stock market for being able to short, but such a long-short two-way variety may be able to more objectively reflect the current market sentiment and capital game trends.After the index rose on Friday, the IC and IF varieties in the stock index futures showed varying degrees of net long positions.For example, in the IC2205 contract, after the close on Friday, the long position was reduced by 4581 lots, the short position was reduced by 4398 lots, and the long position was reduced by 183 lots; while in the IF2205 contract, the long position was reduced by 2667 lots, and the short position was reduced by 1924 lots, and the short position reached 743 lots.

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In addition, the contango of stock index futures has also been used to observe the sentiment cycle of the market. When the stock index futures price is higher than the spot index price, the stock index futures are at a premium, otherwise, the stock index futures are at a discount.

At present, there are still 5 trading days before the delivery date of this month, but the main contracts of IH, IF and IC all have different degrees of discount (the futures price is lower than the spot),Indicates that the current market sentiment remains cautious.

Guosen Securities released a research report on May 11 and pointed out that in the past year, the median annualized discount rates of the main contracts of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300 and CSI 500 stock index futures were 0.78%, 3.93%, and 6.46%, respectively. On the day of 20220511, the annualized discount rate of the main contract of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index futures was 9.42%, which was at the 15% quantile in the past year. The quantile point, the annualized discount rate of the main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures on that day was 22.05%, which was at the 12% quantile point in the past year.

Is it a good time to open positions near 3000?

The decline of A-shares this year is due to the uncertainty of the external environment on the one hand, and is also closely related to the domestic epidemic on the other hand. At today’s press conference on epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai, the Shanghai government announced that business will resume in stages starting from May 16. The market will resume, and with the resumption of work and production in Shanghai, China’s economy may improve in the second quarter.

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Li Bei of Banxia Investment said that in the past month or so, A-shares, especially the leading stocks in the manufacturing sector represented by CSI 500, have experienced a flood of financing, snowballing, and passive selling of private placement stop losses. Entering the 10-year absolute underestimation range.The battle between Long and Yuye has been completed, and the market for eating is now. Don’t be too pessimistic in the long run.

Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI Securities, said that this year, the Chinese economy faces three major internal and external challenges: the spread of the epidemic, the tightening of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and the expected impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.The main problem at present is not the ease of monetary policy, but the lack of effective market demand.

Chen Guo, chief strategist of CITIC Construction Investment, said that with reference to the actual situation of the current round of the epidemic and the past “post-epidemic recovery” market, the sector targets for this “post-epidemic recovery” market can be roughly divided into two categories: one is each round of the epidemic. The common sectors that will be affected are mainly consumer service industries, which can be focused on at presentTravel and logistics; The other is the core industries of Shanghai and Jilin, which are mainly damaged by the current round of prosperity.New energy vehicles, semiconductors and other sectors,The winning rate of these sectors is guaranteed under the blessing of high prosperity.

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