The short-term market is still intertwined with long and short corn futures price range | agricultural products_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Founder Mid-term Futures

【Market review】

Futures market: The main 05 contract fluctuated at night, down 0.2%; CBOTcornThe main contract closed down 0.39% on Monday;

Spot market: On Monday, the spot price of corn was stable and slightly weak. Beigang second-class corn purchase is 2810-2815 yuan/ton, Guangdong Shekou new grain bulk ship is 2950-2970 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Friday, and the price of container first-class corn is within 3030 yuan/ton; Northeast corn purchase prices are mixed The mainstream purchase of Heilongjiang deep-processing new corn is 2580-2650 yuan/ton, the mainstream purchase of Jilin deep-processing corn is 2630-2720 yuan/ton, the mainstream purchase of Inner Mongolia corn is 2700-2750 yuan/ton, the mainstream purchase of Liaoning corn is 2750-2800 yuan/ton; Shandong purchase The price is 2820-2990 yuan/ton, Henan 2800-2950 yuan/ton, Hebei 2780-2850 yuan/ton.

【Important information】

(1) According to relevant data, Brazil’s total corn exports in February 2023 will be 2.28 million tons, an increase of about three times compared with February last year, and the highest export volume in the same month since 2016. Brazil continued to export corn to China in February this year, and record corn production in 2022 will also help exports grow year-on-year. Since China opened its market to Brazilian corn last year, China has imported about 1 million tons of Brazilian corn in January.

(2) As of February 24, the second-crop corn planting area in central and southern Brazil reached 14.9 million hectares, equivalent to 39.1% of the expected area, which was 52.4% lower than the sowing progress in the same period last year and 48.7% lower than the five-year average progress.

(3) Market comments: From the perspective of the external market, the export of US corn is slow, and the superimposed market has repeated expectations for the Black Sea grain agreement, which has brought great disturbance to the market. However, the support brought by the South American weather disturbance is still there. Continue to maintain the judgment of high range shocks. From the perspective of the domestic market, the external market price fluctuations and domestic spot expectations are the main factors. The impact of grain sales pressure on the spot side has weakened to a certain extent. At the same time, the overall channel inventory is low this year, which brings relative support to the market. The short-term market is still mixed with long and short. As for the expected dominant factor is limited, futures prices will also fluctuate in a range.

【Arbitrage strategy】

  starch– Corn price difference is recommended to hold long positions at low levels;

【Trading straregy】

The corn 05 contract may continue to fluctuate in a short-term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being in terms of operation.